Asphalt Price Trends and Forecast

Asphalt Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trends analysis of Asphalt in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Asphalt Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

In the first half of 2024, the asphalt market experienced notable fluctuations, marked by divergent regional trends and shifting dynamics on both the supply and demand sides. Early in the year, the market was supported by strong international crude oil prices, which bolstered costs and led to a modest price increase in February and April. Demand in the northern regions of China showed signs of resilience due to favorable weather conditions and increased construction activity, while the southern regions struggled with continuous rainfall, suppressing demand and leading to regional disparities in price movements.
 

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By mid-year, the market's sentiment shifted as various factors began to dominate. A weakening trend in international crude oil prices, combined with a gradual increase in supply from several key refineries resuming asphalt production, contributed to downward pressure on prices. Notably, as refineries like Dongming Petrochemical and others resumed production, the supply side saw a modest increase, further intensifying competition in an already oversupplied market. Meanwhile, demand remained tepid, driven primarily by on-demand purchases with limited downstream procurement intensity, reflecting a constrained appetite for spot transactions. In the latter phase of the second quarter, the overall market trend remained weak, with limited upside potential.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, looking forward, the asphalt market is expected to remain in a phase of consolidation, shaped by ongoing supply adjustments and regional demand variations. The overall outlook remains cautious, with market participants closely monitoring developments in crude oil prices and geopolitical factors that could influence future trends.
 

Asphalt Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asphalt is a versatile petroleum product that is purposed primarily in road construction and maintenance. Its durability, water resistance, and ability to withstand heavy traffic make it indispensable for paving roads, highways, and airport runways worldwide. Additionally, asphalt finds applications in roofing materials, waterproofing, and sealing compounds.

In the second half of 2023, the Asian, European, and North American petroleum jelly markets experienced fluctuations influenced by crude oil market dynamics. In Asia, asphalt prices surged in the third quarter due to OPEC+ oil export restrictions and the cessation of Russian oil imports by India and China. However, prices reversed in the fourth quarter due to excessive inventories and subdued demand. Similarly, the European market saw positive trends in the third quarter driven by global oil price surges, but prices declined in the fourth quarter amid decreased demand.

Further, North America mirrored these patterns, with firmer prices initially, followed by a downturn in the face of Red Sea disruptions and increased dependence on domestic consumption. Overall, mixed sentiments prevailed across all regions, with asphalt prices fluctuating in response to changes in crude oil supplies and geopolitical factors, illustrating the interconnectedness of petroleum derivatives with global oil markets.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Asphalt is expected to face the ill consequences of the avalanches in the global crude oil prices and shifting demand dynamics of the consumers.
 

Asphalt Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

In the first quarter of 2023, the price trend of asphalt inclined gradually, but in the second quarter, the trend became flat due to fluctuations in the prices of crude oil. In the second quarter, the prices fluctuated due to the cut in production processes to maintain the profit margins and the rising risk of recession. Additionally, the subdued demand and dull market sentiments negatively impacted the price trend of asphalt in 2023.

Europe

The prices of asphalt in Europe were majorly affected by the trend followed by the crude oil sector. The first and second quarters of 2023 were not favorable for the rising prices of crude oil.

In the first quarter, the slow movement of European markets and the influx of Russian produce negatively impacted the price trend. In addition to this, the trend was affected by the weakening of European currencies with respect to the US dollar and rising economic uncertainties due to high inflation rates. The demand sector in the second quarter also did not support the asphalt market, and as a result, the prices declined significantly.

North America

The demand for crude oil in North America remained low in the first and second quarters of 2023, which in turn led to the decline in the prices of asphalt. The market witnessed some monthly fluctuations in the second quarter as the market activities remained volatile. The rising market activities in the second quarter were countered by labor strikes, shadows of recession, and rising inflation rates, ultimately causing the price trend of asphalt to decline.

 Analyst Insight
 
According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Asphalt is expected to depict a volatile trend as the uncertain crude oil market and fear of recession are estimated to affect the concerned market negatively.
 

Asphalt Price Trend For the Fourth Quarter of 2022

Asia

The asphalt prices decreased during the said period. The decline in crude oil prices drove the asphalt futures down. Further, the insufficient demand suppressed the asphalt market. The Chinese government's preferential policies of price reduction and batch discounts of major refineries along with limited transportation caused the prices to decline.

The downstream terminal demand, coupled with the rapid price decline, poor purchasing enthusiasm and weak overall trading and investment atmosphere were other such factors responsible for the lowered prices. The asphalt prices averaged around 3497-3556 RMB/MT towards the end of said period.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices of asphalt will remain volatile in the coming months. The rise of international crude oil will support the sentiment of the asphalt market to some extent; however, the prices may rise in a narrow range in the short term.
 

Asphalt Price Trend For the Third Quarter of 2022

Asia

The price trends for asphalt declined during the said quarter. On the supply side, the refinery rates have been increased and production costs stabilized. Whereas the demand side is significantly low compared with the data of the same period last year.

Although the operating rate of installations is gradually rebounding (it is still lower than in the same period of previous years), the market resources are still relatively tight, and the inventory continues to deplete. Under the support of realistic fundamentals, the spot price of asphalt is relatively stable. The asphalt prices went from 684.13 USD/MT Spot FD in July to 643.30 USD/MT Spot FD in September.

North America

In the North American market asphalt witnessed the same pricing patterns. The prices declined owing to the reduced construction activities amid labour shortages and pessimistic macro expectations. In Ontario (Canada), the asphalt cement prices went from 1394 USD/MT in July to 1324 USD/MT in September 2022.
 

Asphalt Price Trend For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

In the previous quarter, when the crude oil prices reached a record-breaking high in the international market, it affected the asphalt prices too.

Later, the prices started to stabilize in the Chinese market because of reduced industry demand. Due to the decrease in crude oil prices and renewed production, the supply and demand dynamics became stable. Per ton price of asphalt averaged 4575 RMB and the domestic market remained sluggish.

Europe

The rising crude oil and natural gas prices amidst the ongoing conflict affected energy and allied sectors. However, the bitumen and asphalt sectors felt the most destructive effect. With many refineries such as ATPC (Antwerp) and Shell (Netherlands) shutting down operations, asphalt pricing drifted towards the higher end of the scale.

North America

In line with the European trends, the price of asphalt in the US domestic market is constantly increasing. The prices averaged 687.50 USD/MT Eastern and Western Montana and 737.50 USD/MT Portland.
 

Asphalt Price Trend For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

In March 2022, prices were 3977.20 RMB/MT in China. In terms of regions, asphalt price increase in East China was the most noticeable, owing to a cumulative increase of 550 RMB/MT in Sinopec's asphalt pricing over the week. The price in South China increased by 500 RMB/MT, while Maoming Petrochemical and PetroChina Gaofu increased by 600 RMB/MT.

In Northeast China, asphalt prices increased by 450 RMB/MT and 300 RMB/MT in North China. This was mostly due to the impact of crude oil prices, which resulted in a noticeable price increase. However, as crude oil prices plummeted, prices in some regions of the North declined as well.
 

Asphalt Price Trend For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

In Asia, the crude oil prices hit almost 80-83 USD/barrel in the beginning of the final quarter of 2021 as a result of rebound in demand after the pandemic which led to an inflation in the prices of several crude oil related commodities like asphalt.

Oil prices increased to almost double on a year-on-year basis as low production was reported in the OPEC even though the global oil demand continued to increase affecting the pricing of downstream products like asphalt. As a result, asphalt prices in November were recorded at a high of 582 USD/MT in China.

Europe

Europe was facing natural gas supply shortages during the final quarter of the year amidst high demand which contributed to the global rise in price of crude oil thereby impacting the asphalt pricing in the region.

North America

The compound’s inventories in North America were running low during the final quarter of 2021. Crude oil prices increased by 2% in December, witnessing a rise to 72.38 USD/barrel in US West Texas Intermediate prices.

The crude oil prices were increasing as economies recovered from the pandemic and vaccination rates increased which surged the demand for petroleum products in the global market. This in turn affected the prices for downstream derivatives like asphalt.
 

Asphalt Price Trend For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

The oil demand in Asia had dropped in the first three quarters of 2021 as the coronavirus cases resurged in India. China dealt with production shortages while crude oil prices fell for the first time in August 2021 since September 2020. However, the supply constraints drove up the upstream crude prices again affecting the production costs of asphalt.

The developing countries in Asia, like India are a major consumer of the compound, mainly driven by the demand from road construction projects. As the country recovered from the pandemic in the latter half of the year, the demand for road making commodities expanded. As a result of increased demand, asphalt prices in China rose to 530 USD/MT in the first half of the year.

Europe

Oil prices in Europe increased consistently amid the energy crisis in the region and hit the highest price of 80 USD/barrel in September 2021. The value of the pound had fallen against the dollar which led to inflation in the prices of several commodities. The demand for crude oil-based derivatives like asphalt also increased as road construction witnessed demand after economies started to recover after the pandemic.

North America

In the second quarter of 2021, the average price for liquid asphalt was 460 USD/MT. The upstream crude oil prices rose to an average of 73 USD/barrel in June 2021. In August, the crude oil WTI prices witnessed a three year high at almost 75 USD/barrel. The demand was surging in many regions as lockdowns were lifted and people hit the roads. While production was increased, it was not enough to keep up with the rise in global demand for crude oil and its derivatives which ultimately affected its market in the region.

Latin America

Colombia witnessed a sharp inflation amidst falling value of peso which increased prices for most commodities in the region as the economy struggled to recover after being hit by the pandemic in the previous year. The petroleum production was still affected by the pandemic which impacted the petroleum reserves of the country and in turn affected the prices of petroleum-based products like asphalt.
 

Asphalt Price Trend For the Year 2020

Asia

In most developing countries like India, the infrastructure and construction industry was hit by the government-imposed lockdowns and restrictions to curb the spread of the coronavirus pandemic which affected the overall economy of the nation, thereby reducing the investments in construction projects which ultimately led to a decline in the demand.

The construction of roads had been halted during the pandemic which caused high inventory levels of asphalt as manufacturers were unable to sell their products due to low demand. The demand had dropped by 25-28% approximately. Asphalt prices in China dropped from 499 USD/MT in January to 340 USD/MT in October.

Europe

In European countries, the construction work resumed after the pandemic as most companies resumed operations and also took on new projects which increased the construction activity by 27.9%. In May 2020, construction activities witnessed a surge by 21.2% compared to the previous month but had decreased by 10.3% as compared to the same period in last year.

North America

The market in 2020 was impacted by the covid-19 pandemic as it affected the equipment used in the manufacturing of asphalt. The pandemic had hit most sectors of development and infrastructure. Its demand went down in North America as a lot of construction activities were halted in the region. In Boston, all construction sites had been shut down in March 2020.

Latin America

Latin America had limited consumption of asphalt in 2020, amounting to only 8% of the total global consumption.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Asphalt. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.