During Q4’25, coal liquefaction prices generally trended higher amid tight supply conditions and increased demand for alternative fuels. In the United States, natural gas prices surged in early December due to cold winter weather and strong LNG exports. This pushed utilities to rely more on coal for power generation, supporting higher demand for coal-based fuels, including liquefaction products. U.S. coal inventories declined, and higher consumption by power plants provided additional upward pressure on prices.
In China, coal prices rebounded sharply due to heavy rainfall, production inspections, and supply restrictions. Tight domestic supply and seasonal restocking by industrial users lifted demand for coal liquefaction feedstock. However, slower steel production slightly tempered price gains as overall industrial consumption softened.
In Europe, coal liquefaction prices were supported by stable demand from power and industrial sectors, while geopolitical tensions and LNG supply considerations made coal a more attractive option. Limited disruptions in transportation and steady import activity helped maintain price stability, though spikes were seen in response to temporary shortages.
Overall, Q4’25 saw coal liquefaction prices rise modestly across major markets, driven by tighter supply, stronger winter fuel demand, and strategic stockpiling by industrial consumers.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, Coal Liquefaction prices are expected to stay firm in the near term as winter demand continues and global coal supply faces structural constraints.
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In the third quarter of 2025, coal liquefaction prices remained largely subdued due to weaker coal prices globally and reduced demand for coal-based fuels. In India, where coal is still widely used, imported LNG continued to struggle to replace coal, but even there, coal liquefaction remained a small, less competitive option.
With gas and renewable energy expanding their roles, the economic case for coal-to-liquid (CTL) projects weakened further. India’s underused gas infrastructure and low uptake of LNG meant no major shift toward CTL for power or industry, keeping demand and pricing soft.
Meanwhile, in China, coal prices declined significantly during the quarter due to stable domestic production and growing renewable capacity. This added further pressure on coal liquefaction economics, as the cost advantage of CTL narrowed against other fuels.
Despite short-term spikes during peak summer, overall coal demand was met easily through local production and imports. As a result, CTL producers had little pricing power and faced challenges staying competitive, especially with increasing availability of cleaner energy options.
Coal is transformed into liquid hydrocarbons, such as fuel and petrochemicals, through the process of coal liquefaction. The "indirect route" and the "direct route" are the two most popular methods for completing this task, though there are other methods as well. This conversion is advantageous for nations with abundant coal resources (like the US and China), as it can lessen reliance on imported liquid fuels. It also has the potential to generate hydrogen economically.
Production of gasoline, Production of hydrogen
Chevron Corporation, Pall Corporation, Shenhua Group, Yankuang Company, Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group
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In this procedure, iron-based catalyst and recycled solvent are present while coal is exposed to hydrogen at 450°C and high pressure for one hour. As a result, the solid to liquid transformation of coal's hydrocarbon structure occurs. In order to produce consumable oil, it goes through extensive upgrading.
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