Dark Chocolate Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Market Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Dark Chocolate in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Dark Chocolate Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Dark Chocolate is directly sourced out of cocoa beans, so the price trend greatly depend on the cocoa prices, its supply, and availability in the market. During the said period of H1’23, the Dark Chocolate prices soared across the globe. Cocoa pods are cultivated primarily in the Ivory Coast and other African countries like Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria, while Europe is the biggest importer and consumer of chocolate.

Dark Chocolate Price Chart

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But as the recession mounted in Europe after Russia’s armed invasion of Ukraine, the European suppliers became hesitant and ordered less, limiting the supplies, and at the same time, high fertilizer costs and the drought-like situation in Africa in mid-Q2 suppressed the crop yields. Because of all these factors, the Dark Chocolate prices increased by about 40% from last October till June’23. The Dark Chocolate kept getting more and more expensive throughout the discussed period.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, given the existing limited supply and fear of El Nino mounting, the price trend for Dark Chocolate are projected to jump even higher in the upcoming months.

Dark Chocolate Price Trend for the Fourth Quarter of 2022

The price trend for dark chocolate remained mixed wavering at the lower end during the concerned period. Feedstock cocoa seeds saw a surge in grinding activities, hence, ample supplies to produce dark chocolates were available.

Ivory Coast remained the country with the highest production and export of the feedstock cocoa seeds. As the global freight conditions and the supply conditions improved, the cocoa seeds from Ivory Coast could reach the international market.
 
Some peaks in the price trend were attributed to the high global inflations and supply congestions, but demand dynamics and quantity support to the inventories kept pulling the prices down.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, dark chocolate prices are expected to remain fluctuating in the coming months. The price trend are expected to coincide with the demand spectrum of dark chocolate as the supply and trade normalize.

Dark Chocolate Price Trend For the Third Quarter of 2022

Dark chocolate has been teetering in the third quarter owing to oscillating production and supplies across various regions. It has witnessed slumped prices on the back of copious supplies. The ivory coast had been shooting with its supplies chalked to soaring production. Hence, the demand-supply equation seemed to have blotched the dark chocolate price trend that were experienced during the first half.

Cocoa, the main ingredient of dark chocolate, has been witnessing an abundant supply from the Ivory coast. Hence, the firmer supplies of the pivotal ingredient have decreased the prices of dark chocolate by an inverse proportion. However, Ghana has seen a gnawed-off supply and truncated production, which has balanced the sinking price trend of dark chocolate.

In the USA, dark chocolate seemed to have been stable across the third quarter, with USD 2.239 per kg in July, USD 2.323 per kg in August, and USD 2.298 per kg in September.

Dark Chocolate Price Trend For the First Half of 2022

High-cost inflation and the continuing issues with the global supply chain amid the Russia- Ukraine geopolitical conflict have caused chocolate prices to increase by manifolds. Chocolate manufacturers are faced with the problem of sourcing the raw materials necessary to make chocolate.

The main raw ingredients include cocoa beans, cocoa butter, milk, and sugar; however, these ingredients are witnessing unprecedented price surges, given the current market volatility. The world's largest producer of cocoa beans- The Ivory Coast ( West Africa), is reeling under the pressure of a lousy harvest owing to the lack of rainfall and droughts.

The constricted supply amid the inflated freight charges and trade bottlenecks surged the price trend of dark chocolate worldwide. The price of cocoa beans surged by 18% Y-O-Y basis; moreover, the prices of dark chocolate are still less compared to the other varieties of chocolate like milk and white, which chocolates contain higher concentrations of sugar and milk.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Dark Chocolate. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.