Cocoa prices erased early gains as forecasts for drier Ivory Coast weather eased harvest disruptions. However, El Niño formation and poor crop development for the 2026/27 season offer support, limiting the decline.
September NY cocoa closed down 2.51% after Nigerian cocoa exports rose 28% y/y, signaling larger global supply. Heavy rains in West Africa and an emerging El Niño pattern provide underlying support. Near-term prices face bearish pressure from abundant shipments.
In 2025, dark chocolate prices remained volatile, following the record increases seen in 2024. At the start of the year, prices continued to rise sharply as cocoa supply from West Africa stayed tight. Extreme weather, including droughts and high temperatures, caused crop failures, while aging trees and plant diseases further reduced output. These challenges created pressure on manufacturers, especially small and artisanal producers in North America, who raised retail prices, reduced product sizes, or adjusted recipes to manage costs.
During the second quarter, prices stayed high as global cocoa supply remained limited. Trade tariffs and higher transport and energy costs added more pressure, keeping production expenses elevated. In the third quarter, cocoa prices began to ease as weather improved in parts of West Africa and mid-season crop output recovered. Some new plantings in South America also helped stabilize supply. However, structural issues like aging trees in Ghana and Indonesia persisted, keeping overall production growth modest. By the fourth quarter, prices softened from their record highs, but dark chocolate remained more expensive than historical averages due to ongoing supply limitations and strong global demand.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, Dark Chocolate prices are expected to remain moderately high in the near term, with recovery depending on weather and improved cocoa harvests.
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In 2024, dark chocolate prices increased strongly throughout the year as the global cocoa market faced serious supply shortages and rising production costs. The main reason behind this trend was the sharp rise in cocoa prices, caused by poor harvests in West Africa, especially in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which produce a large share of the world’s cocoa. Unusual weather linked to El Nino, along with plant diseases, aging trees, and reduced farming land due to mining activities, lowered crop output and tightened supply. This created a large gap between supply and demand and pushed up the cost of cocoa used in chocolate production.
Higher labor, fertilizer, and transport costs added more pressure on manufacturers. Many producers adjusted their pricing, reduced pack sizes, or changed product mixes to manage costs. At the same time, demand for premium and specialty chocolate remained steady, which supported the high price trend. Overall, dark chocolate prices stayed elevated in 2024 due to limited cocoa supply and strong market demand.
Dark Chocolate is basically a type of chocolate which contains cocoa solids, cocoa butter, and sugar, without the milk solid constituents that are generally found in milk chocolate variants. It is a healthier alternative to other chocolate-types owing to presence of minerals such as iron, magnesium and zinc as well as antioxidants.
Black Chocolate, Plain Chocolate, Sour Chocolate
Bars, Syrup, Cookies, Ice Creams, Cakes, Pastries, Others, Cosmetics
Nestlé S.A, Ferrero U.S.A., Inc, Barry Callebaut AG, Mondelez International, The Hershey Company, Blommer Chocolate Company
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This report provides the cost structure of dark chocolate production from conching and tempering processes. The cocoa beans are fermented to bring out the full flavour potential of the cocoa beans.
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