Durum wheat markets experienced considerable volatility during the first half of 2025, with trade policy uncertainties dominating price movements. The market continued its downward trajectory from previous highs, as improved production conditions helped ease the supply constraints that had characterized earlier periods.
Trade tensions remained the primary driver of market sentiment throughout H1’25. President Trump's repeated delays in implementing tariffs on Canada and Mexico created an atmosphere of uncertainty that weighed heavily on pricing. Market participants adopted cautious, hand-to-mouth purchasing strategies while awaiting policy clarity, particularly affecting durum flows given Canada's critical role as a major supplier.
Supply fundamentals presented mixed signals during this period. While US durum production had recovered substantially, reduced acreage in Arizona and Mexico due to water constraints and withdrawn government subsidies tightened North American supplies. Weather conditions remained a concern, with persistent dryness in key North Dakota and Montana growing regions, though winter snowfall provided some relief to certain areas.
Import activity surged as buyers rushed to secure Canadian supplies ahead of potential tariff implementations. This accelerated import pace contributed to building domestic inventories, which added downward pressure on local markets. Export competitiveness remained challenged, with shipments primarily flowing through Texas Gulf ports to European and North African destinations.
