Durum wheat markets experienced considerable volatility during the first half of 2025, with trade policy uncertainties dominating price movements. The market continued its downward trajectory from previous highs, as improved production conditions helped ease the supply constraints that had characterized earlier periods.
Trade tensions remained the primary driver of market sentiment throughout H1’25. President Trump's repeated delays in implementing tariffs on Canada and Mexico created an atmosphere of uncertainty that weighed heavily on pricing. Market participants adopted cautious, hand-to-mouth purchasing strategies while awaiting policy clarity, particularly affecting durum flows given Canada's critical role as a major supplier.
Supply fundamentals presented mixed signals during this period. While US durum production had recovered substantially, reduced acreage in Arizona and Mexico due to water constraints and withdrawn government subsidies tightened North American supplies. Weather conditions remained a concern, with persistent dryness in key North Dakota and Montana growing regions, though winter snowfall provided some relief to certain areas.
Import activity surged as buyers rushed to secure Canadian supplies ahead of potential tariff implementations. This accelerated import pace contributed to building domestic inventories, which added downward pressure on local markets. Export competitiveness remained challenged, with shipments primarily flowing through Texas Gulf ports to European and North African destinations.
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In the second half of 2024, durum wheat prices moved through a complex cycle shaped by uneven global supply and competitive export dynamics. At the start of H2, prices showed initial firmness, supported by tight global inventories and strong demand from North African and European buyers. Weather-related crop issues in countries like France and Italy contributed to a decline in local availability, encouraging imports and lifting global demand.
However, as the months progressed, rising production from key exporters like Canada and Turkey added downward pressure. Canada reported a significant year-on-year jump in output, which created surplus availability, while Turkey’s unexpectedly large harvest increased market competition. These developments limited any strong price rally, even as demand remained steady in traditional importing nations.
Moreover, Russia’s quality issues with its durum crop and reduced competitiveness in the Black Sea region briefly lifted market sentiment. Still, the overall global supply picture improved enough to keep prices from rising significantly. Export competition, especially from Turkey, further weighed on price momentum. Although Canadian exporters saw decent early sales, logistical disruptions and moderate demand kept the pace below potential.
Durum Wheat, also known as pasta wheat or macaroni wheat (Triticum durum or Triticum turgidum subsp. durum) is basically a tetraploid species of wheat. It is the hardest of all wheat species. It was produced and developed via artificial selection of the domesticated emmer wheat strains, which were grown in Central Europe and the Near East during the ancient time.
It is known to be the second most cultivated species of wheat after common wheat, although it represents only 5% to 8% share in the global wheat production. It is milled and the endosperm is ground into a fine product called semolina, which is used for premium pastas and breads.
Flour, Pasta, Biscuits, Shortcrust Pastry, Thicken Sauces
Pasta wheat, Macaroni wheat, Breads
Bühler Group, Ardent MillsEuropean Flour Millers
CurrencyUS$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)
Supplier Database AvailabilityYes
Customization ScopeThe report can be customized as per the requirements of the customer
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Durum Wheat is cultivated in favourable climatic conditions, followed by its harvesting. It is subject to four processes, that are, cleaning, tempering, milling and purifying, before its commercial use in the industry.
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In this process, wheat flour is fed into a streamlet of water where a slurry mixture of wheat and water is formed.
This report provides the cost structure of wheat starch production from the Martin process. Martin process refers to the wet milling process.
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