- Gasoline prices surged sharply as the Iran war triggered major oil market volatility. Supply disruptions, shipping delays, and higher insurance costs amplified the spike in Brent and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude.
- Refining feedstocks tightened due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, OPEC+ output cuts, and Gulf storage bottlenecks, creating acute supply shortages and higher landed crude costs.
- Downstream demand remained firm but restrained; Asian refiners struggled with limited feedstock, European buyers faced risky imports, and North American markets leaned on stockpiles and domestic output to stabilize supply.
Asia
In China, gasoline prices moved up from about 1.02 RMB/kg (Spot FD) in January and around 1.23 RMB/kg in March. The prices surged particularly in the last month of the quarter, reflecting a 16.5% increase from February to March. Limited Middle Eastern crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with refinery processing cuts, fueled the spike. India, heavily reliant on Gulf LPG and crude, faced similar pressure as regional supply shortages forced petrochemical plants to cut output. Both countries partially offset the supply gap through alternative imports from Kazakhstan and Russia, but tight domestic refining capacity and sustained industrial demand continue to support elevated prices.
Europe
European gasoline prices are under upward pressure as emergency releases from OECD stockpiles temporarily eased supply gaps. Imports from the Middle East declined sharply, though non-OPEC+ producers partially offset losses. Strong seasonal demand for transportation fuels and limited refinery maintenance windows in Germany, Italy, and France reinforced price support. European refiners are navigating constrained feedstock availability while meeting high demand, keeping spot prices elevated.
North America
In the U.S. and Canada, gasoline prices have risen moderately, driven mainly by crude cost inflation and regional refinery utilization. Emergency crude releases from OECD inventories helped prevent sharper price spikes. Strong domestic consumption, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, coupled with limited alternative imports, has maintained upward momentum. Canadian pipeline and storage constraints have also restricted the ability to fully balance supply, sustaining prices.