Propylene Price Trend and Forecast

Propylene Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Propylene in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

 

Propylene Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

Product	Category	Region	Price	Time Period
Propylene	Chemicals	India	833 USD/MT	July'24
Propylene	Chemicals	India	835 USD/MT	September'24

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Asia

The propylene prices in the Asian market showed an overall fluctuating trajectory in the third quarter of 2024. Initially, the downstream procurement maintained a cautious attitude due to mediocre downstream demand, resulting in weak market operations. Along with this, there was low pressure from inventories, which kept the prices wavering and range-bound in the first month of the quarter. But as the quarter entered August, a steady fall in the prices was observed. This was primarily due to prevailing weak sentiment in the polypropylene market that led to reduced demand for propylene feedstock, causing prices to drop. This decline was not sustained, and the prices recovered slightly, but the weak market sentiments kept the prices at the lower end.
 

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The Indian propylene market showed a mixed trend throughout the quarter, as the prices here were stable amid a balance between demand and supply. The average spot prices of propylene were around 833 USD/MT in July and around 835 USD/MT in September.

Europe

The prices of the propylene market showed mixed sentiments in the European market throughout the quarter. The prices rose in the market due to a combination of factors but primarily because of constrained supply driven by lower availability of import cargoes. Adding to this, local producers had reduced their output, adjusting to the weak demand from downstream industries. The European construction sector has remained troubled for a while and has resulted in reduced demand for plasticizers affecting the upstream propylene industry.

Overall, the supply constraints caused by delayed import shipments and high freight rates contributed to price stability despite a generally dampened demand from downstream industries.

North America

The prices of propylene in the North American markets observed an oscillating trajectory aligning with the global trends. The presidential elections in the United States are set to take place in the next quarter. As a result, there has been significant growth in investments in the infrastructure sector, fostering positive sentiment in the downstream propylene market.

Apart from this, some logistical challenges were faced due to hurricanes, which are frequent in this season of the year. some plants had to shut down production due to the disturbances caused by the hurricanes, but the effect was limited, and normal supply was restored after a while.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices of propylene are expected to show regional variations influenced by regional supply-demand differences and global macroeconomic drivers.
 

Propylene Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Product	Category	Region	Price	Time Period
Propylene	Chemicals	India	821 USD/MT to 829 USD/MT	Q2'24

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Asia

In Q2'24, the propylene market in China experienced fluctuations but followed a generally declining trend. During early April, propylene prices saw a brief rise as downstream buyers took advantage of low prices, but this was followed by a volatile trend. Mid-month, prices increased due to renewed downstream activity but slowed again as costs rose and demand decreased. By late April, prices fell again as downstream demand weakened. Despite increased demand ahead of May Day, prices declined in mid-May due to cautious procurement and poor sales.

The traders, however, expected the market to remain stable at low prices in the short term, with potential further reductions at higher prices. In India, on the other hand, the propylene market showcased exceptional resilience as the monthly average of propylene prices fluctuated between a narrow range of 821 USD/MT to 829 USD/MT. This stabilization of the prices of the commodity was influenced by the sustenance of supply-demand equilibria and the positive outlook of downstream industries.

Europe

In Q2'24, the European propylene market experienced a downturn driven by lower-than-expected demand and oversupply. Weak demand from downstream sectors, particularly the beverage bottling industry, did not peak as anticipated post-Easter, leading to significant price drops. Market confidence remained low, with converters hesitant to make large purchases, instead opting to buy only as needed, which further weakened demand.

The oversupply situation created a buyer's market, pressuring producers with excess inventory and eroding profit margins. The decline in crude oil prices provided some relief to producers through lower feedstock costs, but this was not sufficient to reverse the downward price trend. Despite logistical disruptions due to bad weather, port closures, and labor disputes, major ports like Bremerhaven and Rotterdam maintained efficient operations, preventing any significant rebound in propylene prices.

North America

The North American propylene market also functioned on similar trends as observed in the Asian and European countries, with prices facing southwards. The downstream demand was the major cause of keeping the prices of the commodity on the lower end of the spectrum throughout the second quarter of 2024.

The market conditions were further depreciated by the excessive supply of propylene and the fall of its production costs. Additionally, the traders reported the loss of exporting volumes as the US dollar depreciated in comparison to Asian currencies, reducing the export profit margins and contributing significantly to the subdued momentum of the propylene market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Propylene is estimated to be face southwards as the downstream demand is unlikely to improve and even the feedstock commodities are expected to extend limited support.
 

Propylene Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Product	Category	Region	Price	Time Period
Propylene	Chemicals	India	817 USD/MT(CFR)	January 2024
Propylene	Chemicals	India	816 USD/MT (CFR)	March 2024

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Asia

During the said period of the year 2024, propylene observed a very compact price trajectory as the prices mostly remained consolidated within narrow limits. At first, the growing demands pushed the prices forward in the first half of the quarter. A steep incline in the crude oil rates also provided an upward push to the propylene market in the early days.

Thereby, the first couple of months saw a marginal uplift in the price graph. However, as the demand didn’t grow with the same momentum during the said time, the prices started dropping in the second half of the quarter. In the Indian market, the monthly average prices went from about 817 USD/MT(CFR) in January’24 to around 816 USD/MT (CFR) in March’24. This marginal variation in the Asian propylene market reflected the stability in the price trend.

Europe

Replicating the buoyancy in the Asian market, the European propylene market, too, witnessed an almost plateaued price curve during the given time span. Initially, the lackluster customer interest forced suppliers to cut down the prices in the early months to motivate the market movement. However, the increasing energy and fuel prices began dominating in the following days.

The price trend reversed and started falling in the second half of the quarter. The difficult trade dynamics of the region, fueled by the complicated geopolitical and geoeconomic scenarios, curtailed the situation further. Overall, an almost dormant price trend was observed in Q1’24.

North America

During the first quarter of 2024, propylene prices were observed to be ascending swiftly in the American market, although the incline was limited and within a narrow range. A raging crude oil and naphtha prices in the global market were the biggest influences on the American propylene market. Shipping hindrances in the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean were also responsible for this consolidated nature of price movement.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, given the current state of geopolitical tribulations, the trade situation is not likely to be resolved anytime soon. A similar wavering pattern in propylene prices is expected to unfold in the coming months as well.
 

Propylene Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

Asia

The Asian propylene market trend varied within the region during the said period of Q4’23 as some markets performed better than others. Propylene price trend were largely driven by the feedstock naphtha or crude oil prices. Along with this, the market demands from various consumer sectors also played a huge role in determining propylene market behavior.

In the Indian propylene industry, the trend were not much in favor of the market as prices were observed to be sliding marginally for the entire span of the fourth quarter. Though the trade dynamics were mostly balanced with almost stable supply and demand outlooks, market sentiments were not that positive. The monthly average prices went from about 832 USD/MT in October’23 to around 822 USD/MT in December’23. At the same time, the Chinese market behaved oppositely as the monthly average prices here went from around 998 USD/MT at the beginning of the quarter to around 1032 USD/MT by the end of it. With this, the Chinese market registered an incline of about 3%. Overall, mixed market sentiments were observed.

Europe

The European propylene market also behaved like the Indian market, as the prices here also slid during the fourth quarter of the year 2023. Propylene’s monthly average prices in the North Western European markets went from around 1079 USD/MT(Contract FD) in October’23 to about 1002 USD/MT in December’23. The market registered a decline of about 7% during the discussed period.

North America

The American propylene market was also in alliance with the European market, as the prices here were observed to be wavering at the lower end for the majority of the given period. A fall in industrial activity during the holiday season brought the market demands at a lower level which -pushed the market prices down. Depreciation in the crude oil prices during this time also didn’t help the American propylene market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Propylene price trend are expected to continue varying in the coming times as well. The Asian markets project some hope; however, the rest of the global propylene market is still shrouded in uncertainty.
 

Propylene Price Trend for the July - September of 2023

Asia

The Asian propylene price trend mostly wavered in a short range during the third quarter of the year 2023. The downstream demands from the fuel additive industries guided the market sentiments for propylene. In the Chinese propylene market, the average prices elevated by around 4% from July to August but plunged down in the next month. Overall, a mixed price graph was observed in the country as the monthly average prices shifted from around 903 USD/MT (CFR) in July’23 to about 830 USD/MT in September 2023.

Similarly, the Indian prices too fluctuated within confined limits. This borderline stagnancy in price trend suggested a healthy and almost equalled supply and demand dynamic in the region. In the Indian market, the propylene prices averaged around 830 USD/MT (CFR) throughout the given quarter. Though there were some occasional dips in the propylene price graph, the general market sentiments remained positive for the most period.

Europe

The European propylene market was more influenced by the Chinese market as the prices varied in an almost similar manner. The market started a little slow at the beginning of the quarter; however, the market prospects improved regularly after that as the numbers were observed to be rising at the propylene price index. Overall, mixed market sentiments were observed.

North America

The price trend varied throughout the said period in the US market. The oversupplied inventories kept the price curve tilted downward for most of the first half of the said quarter. However, as the downstream demands rose and the gap between the supply and demand attributes narrowed, the market trajectory improved significantly over the second half of the third quarter. The general market outlook seemed supportive for the most part.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Propylene prices are expected to continue fluctuating going forward in the coming months since the market demands will continue to guide the market fundamentals.
 

Propylene Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

In the first two quarters of 2023, the price trend for Propylene had a good initial start as the prices in India rose from around 851 USD/MT (CFR, India) in January to 904 USD/MT (CFR, India) in March’23. This surge was attributed to the high demand for the product from the downstream industries and the ease of covid restrictions.

A big slump was, however, observed in the second quarter as the prices declined owing to dwindling demand. The producers were forced to shut their production routes to stabilize the market sentiments. Further, the uncertain crude oil cost led to a series of ups and downs in production costs. As a result of all these challenges, the propylene prices in China settled around 897 USD/MT towards the end of June’23.

Europe

The European region witnessed a fluctuating trend in the prices of Propylene in the first two quarters of 2023. The prices were majorly affected by the high manufacturing activities and energy costs, along with regular imports from overseas markets. The demand side of the spectra, however, was stable amid strong supply. But this incline was rather short-lived, and the propylene prices began to fall in the second quarter. With the decline in demand, the producers were forced to decrease their production rates, and the crude oil prices also decreased, which resulted in the dip in the prices of Propylene.

North America

A mixed trend in the prices of Propylene was observed in the first and second quarters of 2023. In the initial months of 2023, the prices declined as the region had an abundant product supply and stagnant demand due to weak support from the end-consumer sector. In the later months, the prices gained momentum as they surged with the rise in crude oil prices and a hike in the interest rates. The downstream resins and packaging markets still remained stagnant throughout the period.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for Propylene are estimated to showcase a mixed trend in the upcoming months. The demand from the end-user sectors seems stable, but with rising crude oil prices and uncertain production rates, the price of Propylene is expected to fluctuate.
 

Propylene Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

In the last two quarters of 2022, the prices of Propylene showcased a mixed trajectory. The prices were majorly affected by the subdued demand in the regional market and the weak performance of the polymer industry. The manufacturers thus decreased their output rates and adjusted their production in accordance with the market activities. The cost support from the feedstock materials was also weak as the uncertainties in OPEC+ controlled crude oil prices rose in the last two quarters, negatively impacting the propylene market and its price trend.

Europe

The propylene market in the third quarter dipped significantly because of the low demand from the domestic region. The prices were also affected by the weak economic activities in Europe, which were a result of the holiday season and the rising threat of recession. However, the price trend for Propylene recovered a little in the fourth quarter as the manufacturers regained their momentum, strengthening the supply sector. The rising inflation rates and high energy costs somehow limited their activities and led to the downward movement of the prices.

North America

In North America, the propylene prices showcased a mixed trend as the prices were highly influenced by the weak cost support from the feedstock materials and feeble demand from domestic and overseas buyers. Amid the soaring inflation and interest rates with low offtakes in the domestic market, the level of inventories rose, which negatively impacted the propylene market. The extreme weather conditions, disruptions in trade chains, and power cuts aided the declining trend in propylene prices.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for Propylene are estimated to showcase a mixed trend in the upcoming months as the demand sector seems weak amidst high inflation and slow economic conditions.
 

Propylene Price Trend For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

At the beginning of the second quarter of 2022, the prices of propylene soared in the Indian market, due to an increase in upstream naphtha prices. Strong demand amid limited supply from the downstream industries caused the prices to rise. The price trend changed significantly in the following months, backed by increased cracker spreads across the country.

The abundant supply of feedstock crude oil and upstream naphtha assisted the falling price trend at the end of Q2 2022. In the markets of China, the price of propylene changed rapidly due to Covid-19-related restrictions which led to a drop in demand but as the regulations eased the price picked up again. By the end of Q2 2022, the price followed a downtrend in China, as the feedstock crude oil supply from Russia stabilised.

Europe

During the start of the second quarter of Q2 2022 as several European countries imposed bans on Russian crude oil and natural gas imports. The tight supply due to the sanctions caused the price of feedstock crude oil to rise which drove up the price of propylene prices in the region.

Prices, however, started to decrease in the next two months. The increased run rates in refineries that manufactured upstream Naphtha as a by-product, were backed by the demand for fuel in Europe. This unexpected rise in the supply of upstream Naphtha advanced the downward trend of propylene prices in June and July in Europe in the year 2022.

North America

The prices of the chemical decreased steadily in the US throughout the second quarter of 2022. Several factors such as Covid-19 lockdowns in China, the war between Ukraine and Russia coupled with inflation contributed to the downward trend in propylene prices.

Polymer Grade propylene was traded at discounted rates during Q2 2022. The discount further widened at the end of the quarter as the cost of propylene dropped even lower backed by weak market sentiments in the US market. PDH margins and increased cracker also supported the downtrend in the US throughout Q2 2022.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices for propylene are expected to see a flumped trend in the next half. The major reason behind the bearish trend for propylene can be chalked to an oversupply of propylene. Moreover, the stockpiles are expected to hit the prices significantly.
 

Propylene Price Trend For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

In Q1 of 2022, the propylene market accelerated its drop, with the mainstream market price falling to 8,200-8,400 RMB/MT. The price of international crude oil had plummeted, and the downstream polypropylene market remained slow. The recent domestic outbreak had also resurfaced, affecting logistics and manufacturing in certain locations. The market's trade level fell even further, which was terrible for the market, and merchants had to lower their rates to receive orders.
 

Propylene Price Trend For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

The North-East Asian area saw a progressive change in cracking capacity, with naphtha rapidly surpassing propane as the favored feedstock due to decreasing arbitrage profits on US LPG imports. The import price range for propylene was somewhat wider, with average CFR prices of 1020 USD/MT, up from 1010 USD/MT in Q3, while FOB prices for South Korea were estimated at 1010 USD/MT in Q4, a 25 USD/MT increase over the Q3 average.

India, on the other hand, saw a buyer's market, owing to the fact that the fourth quarter is marked by a lengthy festival season, during which demand for chemicals normally declines. Propylene prices declined from an annual high of 1190 USD/MT in July to 930 USD/MT in December.

Europe

During the fourth quarter, European markets saw a progressive movement in imports away from regional markets and toward Asian propylene, owing to larger arbitrage margins. While the average propylene prices sourced domestically were assessed at 1245 USD/MT on an FD Hamburg basis in Q4, the average price of propylene imported from North-East Asia was assessed at 1135 USD/MT on a CIF Hamburg basis. Thus, Asia-sourced propylene was at least 50 to 60 USD/MT cheaper during Q4.

North America

Throughout Q4 of FY21, the North American propylene market demonstrated an unparalleled level of constancy in trend. While the price of refinery grade propylene remained relatively insensitive to downstream market movements, the price of PGP changed in lockstep with downstream polypropylene pricing.

Following a supply-scarce third quarter during which refinery production was impacted and supply networks along the gulf coast were interrupted by hurricane season, the early half of Q4 remained a seller's market.

However, the trend reversed in the second half of Q4, when feedstock naphtha and LPG prices began to fall in the first week of November and maintained their decline through the end of December. The average price of propylene for refinery and polymer grades was 520 USD/MT FAS Houston and 1640 USD/MT FOB Houston, respectively.
 

Propylene Price Trend For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

Supplies in China were scarce in the second quarter of 2021, as numerous refineries and PDH plants in the country completed turnarounds in the first part of the quarter, aided by South Korea's tight market outlook. Due to the high cost of raw materials, some downstream manufacturing units had their profit margins reduced. Price discussions FOB Qingdao resolved at 1281 USD/MT in June.

Prices in the Asia Pacific area were range-bound during the third quarter, as demand for downstream polypropylene increased but supply remained plentiful. However, propylene prices in the domestic market continued to decline, accompanied by reduced demand in some regions of Asia as a result of additional delta variant instances.

In China, conversations of downstream polypropylene remained sparse because to the market's downturn in response to Covid infections. In India as well, enough supply in the face of strong demand drove propylene prices down from 1175 USD/MT to 1158 USD/MT during the third quarter.

Europe

Supplies in the European area remained constrained during Q1, as a result of refinery production being decreased due to the continuing pandemic and lockout limitations. Demand, on the other hand, maintained a steady trend throughout the quarter.

Exports migrated away from the United States and toward Asian sources as a result of the US's adverse weather conditions, which reduced freight movement. During the first quarter, the Asian region's supply remained balanced, mainly due to the inclusion of new facilities in China, followed by the restart of significant facilities in South Korea, including LG Chem.

After a turnaround and announced expansion of its ethylene and propylene plant, Yeochun NCC (YNCC) began production in the second half of Q1 2021. However, when the arbitrage between the European and North American regions emerged, Asian producers moved their stockpiles to meet western demand for more income.

Demand in Asia increased significantly throughout the quarter, owing to improved offtakes from the downstream industry. Propylene prices were solid in Q2 due to increased demand and limited supply, with CIF NWE offers ending at 1400-1420 USD/MT, up from a multi-year low in early June.

Supply in Europe increased significantly in the third quarter of 2021, owing to the recovery of PDH plants, crackers, and refineries. Propylene prices in Germany continued their upward trajectory and settled at 1305 USD/MT FD. Hamburg in Q3 2021, followed by a large increase in the up-stream’s pricing.

North America

During the first quarter of 2021, supplies were scarce in the region, constricting margins for downstream derivatives, resulting in an increase in demand, while numerous petrochemicals manufacturing units shut down in the US gulf region due to deep freeze weather.

Domestic PGP prices soared to an all-time high of 1950 USD/MT in mid-February. Market morale improved gradually during the preceding quarter and steadied by the end of April. Demand in the North American area was bolstered by increased inquiries from both the domestic and international markets.

Offtakes from the regional plastic market increased as economies recovered from the impact of COVID. Propylene prices in the US maintained on a downward trend during Q2's first half and then steadied in the second half, with FOB Texas negotiations in June ranging between 710-745 USD/MT. Propylene's general market prognosis in North America improved in the third quarter of 2021.

Latin America

Polyethylene prices in Latin America fell in the week beginning April 25 due to additional material being available on the market and lower Asian costs. Since early March, the Latin American region relied heavily on imports from Europe and Asia, while the United States' export quantities had been limited, allowing Asian markets to make more competitive offers than the United States.

Under very tight market conditions, the Brazilian plastics sector was beginning to notice the first symptoms of declining demand following a year of price rises and fears of more in the coming days.

Some resin purchasers anticipated Braskem to announce April price increases, after February price increases of 125 USD/MT for polypropylene and March price increases of 320 USD/MT for all PP grades. While some market players anticipated Braskem to hike April prices by up to 15%, others believed prices would remain stable, since worldwide prices had stabilized and domestic demand decreased after several Covid-19 lockdowns were restored in March.
 

Propylene Price Trend For the Year 2020

Asia

China's demand remained relatively consistent, with purchasers reporting the commissioning of two Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH) facilities with a combined nameplate capacity of 1050 KTPA in July. The supply was noted to be tightening across Asia towards the end of Q3, with pricing talks steadily intensifying, notably in northeast Asia.

Numerous scheduled and unforeseen interruptions impacted the operation of Naphtha facilities using fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) and steam cracking technology in Japan. In mid-September, with manufacturers stressing constrained regional supply, CFR China propylene prices were evaluated at 900 USD/MT.

Europe

The pricing graph exhibited a rising tendency in July, when it was valued at around USD 780 per tonne FD NWE, before progressively decreasing at the end of the quarter. Propylene prices stabilized in a limited range in the third quarter, with the demand forecast mostly mixed-to-low due to unstable economic conditions.

The product's timely availability was harmed by unanticipated cracker turnarounds in early August, which were addressed by the first half of September. While refineries continued to operate at reduced rates, the major driver of the market, naphtha, was marginally weaker in August than in July.

North America

A series of force majeure declarations in response to storm Laura resulted in a brief disruption of regional supplies. The protracted stoppage of BASF Total's Port Arthur cracker in Texas impacted regional propylene supplies.

US Gulf propylene prices increased as production concerns were resolved and prospects improved as manufacturing activity steadily increased throughout the quarter. Polymer-Grade Propylene (PGP) contract prices in the United States were settled at a one-year high of roughly 715 USD/MT in July, while Chemical-Grade Propylene (CGP) contract prices were evaluated at 683 USD/MT.

Latin America

Brazil, according to the United Nations' COMTRADE database on international trade, exported propylene and other olefins, prim forms to Peru which totaled USD 48.33 million in 2020. Argentina exported polymers derived from propylene or other olefins in their primary forms to China for a value of USD 18.37 thousand in 2020.

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