Rapeseed Oil Price Trend Analysis 2026: Price Drivers, Historical Prices, Market Insights, Supply Demand Analysis & Latest News

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Asia

In China, rapeseed oil prices followed a broadly mixed trajectory throughout the second half of 2025. The prices were about 1342 USD/MT (Spot FD) in July and around 1391 USD/MT in December, which reflected an increase of approximately 3.6% over the period. Supply conditions remained well-supported through the third quarter, with domestic production and cumulative import volumes providing adequate coverage entering the fourth quarter. Prices firmed during the mid-period, driven by steady crushing activity and consistent demand from feed and processing enterprises. However, sentiment shifted in the latter part of the half as supply expectations improved materially. A record rapeseed harvest in Canada and anticipated arrivals of Australian rapeseed at domestic ports weighed on market confidence, pulling prices lower. The seasonal off-peak in oil consumption further softened demand, reinforcing a bearish tone by the close of the year. Meanwhile, in India, rapeseed oil prices maintained a clear downward bias across H2 2025. The prices were about 1085 USD/MT (FOB) in August and around 1055 USD/MT in December. Prices had reached multi-year highs earlier in the calendar year, which prompted the country to resume canola oil imports for the first time in several years, as overseas procurement became cost-effective. As import flows improved and domestic purchasing interest eased, prices declined steadily through the remainder of the period, reflecting gradual relief in supply tightness.

Europe

In H2’25, European rapeseed oil prices exhibited an oscillating pattern. Elevated crush rates and a sharp decline in import arrivals from Ukraine and Canada periodically tightened supply, pushing prices upward. However, these gains were repeatedly checked by improving production forecasts and shifting demand expectations. Regional stocks, while below the five-year seasonal average, provided an insufficient buffer to sustain a consistent upward trend. Biodiesel policy developments in Germany added further uncertainty, contributing to recurring swings in market sentiment across the period.

North America

Rapeseed and canola prices in North America traced a volatile, fluctuating path during H2 2025. Prices initially held at relatively supported levels with limited inventories and steady demand. However, a record domestic harvest drove periodic downward corrections, while intermittent export demand and biofuel policy discussions temporarily restored buying interest. The prolonged closure of the Chinese market to Canadian canola shipments kept export volumes constrained, limiting recovery phases. Uncertainty around U.S. biofuel support mechanisms contributed additional unpredictability, resulting in a series of gains and reversals rather than a clear directional trend through period-end.