Raw Sugar Price Trend Analysis 2026: Historical Prices, Price Drivers, Supply Demand Analysis, Market Insights & Latest News
Raw Sugar Price Trend Q4 2025
The Raw Sugar prices experienced downward pressure throughout the fourth quarter, driven by exceptionally high production volumes from Brazil. The sugarcane harvest yielded substantial output that exceeded earlier forecasts, with sugar production maintaining elevated levels despite slightly lower crushing volumes compared to the previous year. Sugar extraction rates improved significantly, reflecting favourable processing conditions during the late crushing season.
Export activity surpassed market expectations as sustained high yields in the late season enabled shipment volumes to exceed the comparable period from the prior year. Brazil maintained its position as a leading global supplier, with cumulative export volumes reaching historically elevated levels. The abundant supply from Brazil, combined with favourable harvest projections from India and Thailand, created a strong global supply outlook that weighed heavily on pricing dynamics.
The quarter concluded with some market stabilization as producers faced profitability concerns and analysts began adjusting production estimates. Discussions emerged regarding potential shifts in cane allocation toward ethanol production rather than sugar manufacturing, as falling sweetener prices reduced margins for sugar mills.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, raw sugar prices are expected to remain under pressure in the coming months, given continued ample global supplies and elevated Brazilian export availability.
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During the third quarter of 2025, China’s raw sugar market moved on a steady downward path as domestic supply conditions loosened and international output expanded. Market sentiment weakened across the quarter, with spot transactions slowing and inventory pressure gradually intensifying.
In the early part of the quarter, sugar companies in Guangxi cleared inventories ahead of schedule, marking the end of the crushing season. Production in the 2024-25 season recorded a notable year-on-year increase, adding volume to the market. Industrial inventories remained lower than the previous year, yet imports stayed subdued, reflecting a cautious approach by traders amid declining prices. Seasonal consumption of cold beverages supported short-term demand, but the effect was limited compared to the overall expansion in supply.
As the quarter progressed, domestic spot prices continued to edge lower. Despite being within the traditional peak consumption period, sales volumes did not match expectations. The shift toward the upcoming crushing season created uncertainty, leading traders to favour cautious restocking.
The gradual rise in imported syrup and premix powder also contributed to increasing supply pressure. By the close of the quarter, spot trading activity remained muted, and overall market sentiment turned cautious as major buyers completed holiday stocking. Weak consumption momentum and stable supply conditions kept price fluctuations narrow.
About Raw Sugar
Raw sugar refers to sugar before the molasses is separated in the processing of sugar cane. Raw Sugar is known to be a sugar type which retains a small to large amount of molasses from the mother liquor, that is, the partially evaporated sugar cane juice. Thus, it contains all the mineral and acid impurities of the syrup. It is found in shades of brown, with flavours of caramel and smoke. Demerara sugar, Turbinado sugar, and Barbados sugar are some of the types of Raw Sugar.
Raw Sugar Product Detail
Syrup, Food Preparation, Beverages, Processed Food
Natural Brown Sugar, Whole Cane Sugar
Südzucker AG, British Sugar plc, Mitr Phol Group, Santushti International, Wilmar International Ltd
Regional Coverage
Asia Pacific
Europe
North America
Latin America
Africa
CurrencyUS$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)
Supplier Database AvailabilityYes
Customization ScopeThe report can be customized as per the requirements of the customer
Post-Sale Analyst Support360-degree analyst support after report delivery
Note: Our supplier search experts can assist your procurement teams in compiling and validating a list of suppliers indicating they have products, services, and capabilities that meet your company's needs.
Raw Sugar Production Process
- Production of Raw Sugar via Milling and Evaporation
Cane Sugar is processed into Raw Sugar by a sequence of operations like harvesting, cutting, crushing, extraction of juice, clarification, evaporation, and crystallisation. In sugar mills, the juice is extracted from the stalks of sugarcane via the process of milling, wherein the cane tissues are disrupted by cutting, grinding or ‘fiberizing’ to extract nearly 95–97% of available sucrose. Then, the obtained juice is filtered, and the clarified juice is concentrated through evaporation into crystalline raw sugar.
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