- Steel rebar markets in Q1’26 remained weak to range bound across Asia, as oversupply and cautious construction activity limited upward movement despite some late-quarter support.
- Feedstock costs for iron ore, coking coal, and scrap remained relatively stable, providing a cost floor but not strong enough to drive a price rally.
- Downstream demand from construction and real estate stayed subdued, with only partial recovery from infrastructure activity toward March.
Steel rebar prices in Q1’26 followed a weak-to-stable trend across Asia, with slight support emerging toward the end of the quarter due to improving seasonal demand and supply adjustments. Market pressure persisted as global overcapacity and export competition weighed on Asian steel markets, limiting upward movement. Upstream conditions remained soft, as mills operated under weak margins and cautious production strategies, reflected in China’s rebar output declining by 12.3% year-on-year to 42.32 million metric tons in Q1’26, indicating deliberate supply restraint amid weak demand conditions. Downstream construction demand stayed slow in January and February, with limited project execution and low transaction volumes, before improving slightly in March with seasonal restocking. Trade flows were affected by geopolitical tensions, as the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption increased freight, fuel, and insurance costs and reduced steel shipments to the Gulf, which had been a key export destination for Asian steel producers. This weakened export sentiment while raising cost pressures, creating a mixed market environment.