Asia
In Asia, wheat prices in H2 2025 remained largely stable to slightly firm, supported by controlled domestic supply and policy-driven trade restrictions. In India, strong government procurement and export curbs kept surplus volumes within the domestic market, stabilizing mandi-level pricing despite ample inventories. Seasonal factors such as festival-driven miller demand and thinner arrivals supported intermittent firmness, while elevated diesel and fertilizer costs encouraged farmers to withhold stocks, tightening spot availability. However, overall demand remained steady rather than aggressive, with government welfare distribution and routine consumption absorbing supply. Efficient rail logistics and comfortable warehouse stocks prevented sharp volatility, keeping the market balanced with mild upward support toward year-end.
Europe
Europe’s wheat market in H2 2025 remained under pressure due to ample harvest output and elevated carryover stocks, particularly in Russia, which weighed on export sentiment. Strong production and improved port throughput ensured steady shipments, while subsidized input costs such as diesel and fertilizer enhanced exporter competitiveness. However, global demand remained cautious, with key buyers like Turkey and Egypt diversifying sourcing amid competitive offers from other origins, limiting export traction. Inventory overhang and muted purchasing activity reduced urgency among sellers, keeping prices subdued. While seasonal restocking and tender activity provided some support toward year-end, the overall market tone remained soft due to abundant supply and competitive global trade dynamics.
North America
In North America, wheat prices in H2 2025 showed mixed dynamics, with early support from export demand and harvest delays giving way to softer conditions later in the year. Improved harvest progress and rising post-harvest inventories increased supply availability, reducing urgency in spot markets. Although export demand strengthened mid-period due to inquiries from Asia and North Africa, competition from Black Sea origins limited sustained upside. Stable fertilizer and diesel costs influenced farmer selling patterns, while smooth logistics and efficient rail movement ensured uninterrupted supply flows. Toward year-end, ample stocks and muted overseas demand pressured export offers, leading to a more balanced-to-soft market environment.