Global Tin Prices See an Uptrend Amid Rising Demand and Supply Constraints

Tin prices have experienced a significant rebound over the past two weeks due to concerns about supply disruptions from major producers and a positive turn in demand outlooks. Factors contributing to the rise include the closure of tin mines in the Man Maw mining area of Myanmar despite recent tax policy changes in the Wa state, and considerable delays in Indonesian tin exports.

Recent data showed that three-month tin futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) were valued at $26,824 per tonne, marking a recovery from a two-week low of $26,170. Meanwhile, April futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) closed at 219,910 Chinese yuan per tonne. Speculative positions in tin have seen a significant increase, with net long contracts reaching levels not observed since last July when speculative support surged following the suspension of mining activities in Myanmar.

The halt in exports from Indonesia in January, following delays in mine work plan approvals, was highlighted, with exports dropping from 6,000 tonnes in December 2023. The ongoing ban on mining in Myanmar's Wa State, a critical supplier to China and responsible for a significant portion of Yangon's output, continues to fuel uncertainties.

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Analyses suggest that the global tin market will remain tight in the coming months, supported by rising semiconductor and technology sales, including demand for artificial intelligence and automotive chips. Despite a temporary easing of mining bans in Myanmar, the market is expected to face a deficit, with recovery in semiconductor sales indicating a turnaround in demand. Long-term expectations suggest that tin prices will maintain an upward trajectory as the market continues to tighten and demand remains strong.

According to Procurement Resource, tin prices have seen a notable increase due to supply concerns from major producers and improved demand forecasts. Issues such as the shutdown of mines in Myanmar's Man Maw area and delays in Indonesian tin exports have contributed to this surge. Prices on the London Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange reflect this uptrend. The market's tightness is expected to persist, fueled by growing semiconductor and technology demands. Despite temporary reliefs, a global market deficit looms, pointing towards continued price growth driven by strong demand and supply constraints.