Improved Supply will Stabilize the Polysilicon Prices in 2023

The soaring production and ameliorating supply chain are expected to bring the hike in polysilicon prices to stability by the end of 2023. The prices of Polysilicon have reportedly witnessed a significant surge in prices, and it has recorded an increase in prices in the last few years. However, as per industry experts this hike isn’t here to stay for long!

Polysilicon prices were scraping the skies in 2008 when per kilogram of Polysilicon cost around USD 460. It was one of the best phases for Polysilicon, considering such whooping prices. Not matching up to the same calibre, in 2011, Polysilicon prices oscillated in the range of USD 60/kg and USD 80/kg.

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The price trend lasted approximately two years, followed by a crestfallen phase for polysilicon prices. The price went below USD 7/kg in the second quarter of 2020. However, as per the latest market analysis by CNMIA- China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, polysilicon prices rose by around 600% to USD 45.47/kg (compared to USD 7/kg), which is a staggering uproar in prices.

Reasons Behind the Surge in Polysilicon Price

According to the new report "Trends in Photovoltaic Applications 2022" by the IEAPVPS- The International Energy Agency Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme, the photovoltaic utilizations documented a rise in PV prices due to higher prices of Polysilicon, which essentially emerged due to higher prices of Aluminium and Silver, scarcity in semiconductors, and obstruction in the supply chain (thus higher logistics and supply chain costs). To top it all, China, the largest producer of Polysilicon, experienced a frenzied demand for Polysilicon due to impediments and the shutdown of various plants owing to the dearth of electricity. It created a furore in the poly voltaic application requirement, thus registering the hike in polysilicon prices.

The Polysilicon Prices to See a Dip Due to Increased Production and Competition.

Given the demand for Polysilicon has increased, and therefore the price, the reports and analysis don't seem to favour the consistency of higher prices of Polysilicon. With production units in Turkey and Norway, and budding production in India, which would mature in two to three years, there doesn't seem to be any chance for Izumi Kaizuka for polysilicon prices to rise.

As per the Principal Analyst of RTS Corp., Kaizuka, global polysilicon production will burgeon by double by the end of 2022. This production explosion would stabilize the prices of Polysilicon. In addition, US solar production is expected to catapult back into form after rescinding the solar operation for some time. It would inflate the USA's output and help the US emerge as one of the top polysilicon producers. Hence, the supply would weigh more and the prices way lesser!

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To be noted, the prices registered in the reports are way lesser than the actual scenario. Theoretically, the prices that should have crossed USD 90/kg are lingering behind at USD 45.47/kg. It translates to the price paid in the long term being lesser than in the real-time arena. For instance, the price paid for long-term contracts is notably lesser than what reports tend to expect.

According to Procurement Resource, the evanescent hike in Polysilicon prices might have made some queasy; however, the prices are bound to face diminution. Increasing production units, online manufacturing units, and countries emerging to produce Polysilicon wouldn't let the price rise last long.

IEA-PVPS expects polysilicon prices to stabilize by end of 2023 – pv magazine International

Polysilicon price relief in 2023 as industry scales to 500 GW capacity – pv magazine USA