USDA anticipates a rebound in Mexico’s corn production for 2025/26 after declining in 2024/25

Mexico’s corn market is undergoing notable shifts across two consecutive crop years, with distinct trends emerging for 2024/2025 and 2025/2026. The USDA’s final estimates for the 2024/2025 cycle show a modest contraction, with production declining slightly to 23.3 million metric tons from 23.5 million metric tons the previous year. This reduction comes alongside a dip in yields to 3.67 metric tons per hectare, down from 3.85, reflecting observed challenges from weather conditions and agricultural inputs during the growing season.

The tighter supply situation is further evidenced by reduced imports of 24.5 million metric tons compared to 24.8 million previously, contributing to a decrease in total available supply from 52.9 to 52.5 million metric tons. Consequently, ending stocks have declined significantly to 4.3 million metric tons, down from 4.7 million, confirming current market tightness.

Looking ahead to 2025/2026, USDA forecasts anticipate a market rebound, with production projected to rise to 24.5 million metric tons. This recovery is expected despite persistent challenges like high farmer debt and logistical constraints, driven primarily by strong domestic demand. The forecast includes a 100,000-hectare increase in harvested area and a 1.8% improvement in yields to 3.83 metric tons per hectare.

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While imports are expected to decrease further to 24.8 million metric tons, total consumption continues to edge upward, maintaining pressure on stocks which are forecast at 4.09 million metric tons. These contrasting trends between years highlight the market’s volatility, where short-term production constraints coexist with longer-term growth potential fueled by steady demand and gradual agricultural improvements.