Polysilicon market uncertain in the USA, delay in countervailing and anti-dumping duties investigations for imports

The global polysilicon market, crucial for the production of solar cells and semiconductors, is currently facing a period of uncertainty. This is due to pending U.S. investigations into solar cell and module imports from Southeast Asia, which could lead to tariffs. The outcomes of these investigations, originally expected earlier this year, have been delayed, causing major suppliers and manufacturers to be cautious with their procurement and production plans.

A major issue is the delay in U.S. investigations into solar cell and module imports from four Southeast Asian countries. There are two different investigations: one for countervailing duties and another for antidumping duties. Originally, the countervailing duty results were expected around mid-July, but this has now been postponed to late September. Similarly, the results for the antidumping duty investigation, initially due in early October, are now likely to be delayed until November. These delays are due to the complexities involved in reviewing such cases, which can require additional time for thorough analysis and procedural considerations.

Because of these delays, big companies that export solar modules to the U.S. are being very cautious. They are changing their buying strategies and sometimes delaying their purchases of polysilicon. This caution has created a slow period in the market, expected to last a few months, where not much change in prices is anticipated.

In China, the situation is a bit different. Prices for polysilicon have been stable, but manufacturers are facing their own problems like production cuts and money issues, which force them to produce less. For example, one major producer planned to make only 13,000 metric tons in August out of a possible 300,000.

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These challenges are made worse by the large amounts of polysilicon already available, estimated to be between 200,000 to 300,000 metric tons. This surplus keeps prices from going up, even though some companies are starting to stock up, expecting prices to change soon.