1,3-Butadiene Price Trend and Forecast

1,3-Butadiene Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of 1,3-Butadiene in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

1,3-Butadiene Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

Asia

The prices for 1,3-butadiene exhibited an oscillating trajectory in the Asian domestic market during the discussed period. Initially, the prices kept low and kept on decreasing gradually. Although the supply situation was stable, the terminal demand was bearish. Moreover, the high freight charges did contribute towards the high upstream costs, but the suppliers could not pass these costs to the consumers owing to the negative market sentiment.
 

1,3-Butadiene Price Chart

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However, the prices registered a rebound towards the end of August and September first week given the unrelenting geopolitical fluctuations in the market. Therein, the prices started inclining gradually as the downstream demand from the polymer industry turned positive which led to active hoarding of the products by the suppliers.

Europe

Butadiene prices in Europe trended downward throughout Q3 2024, primarily due to sluggish demand and easing upstream costs. The market saw reduced buying interest, particularly from the automotive and construction sectors. Despite high freight rates providing some cost support, sellers struggled to raise prices amid weakening supply-demand dynamics. However, the prices made a slight recovery towards the end of quarter as supply tightened and seasonal demand improved.

North America

The North American 1,3-butadiene market experienced fluctuating prices in Q3 2024. Initial price decreases were observed due to lackluster demand and falling feedstock costs. However, prices rebounded slightly mid-quarter, driven by supply constraints and improved downstream polymer industry demand. As Q3 progressed, geopolitical tensions and logistics challenges contributed to price volatility.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of 1,3-Butadiene is likely to continue its current trajectory in the coming months. The market outlook remains uncertain, with potential for price stabilization dependent on demand recovery and resolution of supply chain issues.
 

1,3-Butadiene Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Asia

During Q2 2024, China's 1,3-butadiene market experienced a notable price increase, driven by tight supply and strong demand. The limited influx of overseas imports and low inventory levels also held a major share in driving the 1,3-butadiene market trend in the upward direction. The supply side was further constrained by the shutdown of major production units and maintenance activities, leading to a stronger rebound in the market after a period of stagnancy.

On the demand side, downstream synthetic rubber prices continued to rise, supported by high costs and tight supply. Despite cautious purchasing behavior due to profit pressures, overall demand remained robust. Additionally, the international crude oil prices and favorable market expectations for the summer demand season further supported the bullish sentiment in the butadiene market.

Europe

During the second quarter of 2024, 1,3-butadiene prices in the European market witnessed bleak momentum due to weak demand from derivative sectors and exceeding macroeconomic pressures. The consumer sector, in particular, exhibited cautious purchasing behavior, opting for a wait-and-see approach due to weakness in downstream industries such as synthetic rubber and ABS polymers. Additionally, the automotive and construction sectors, key consumers of these derivatives, reported lower-than-expected consumption, further pressuring butadiene prices.

On the supply side, butadiene availability increased as production units ramped up operations following offline periods in May. This improved supply scenario added downward pressure on prices. Despite an increase in feedstock prices driven by rising crude oil costs, these higher production costs did not translate into increased butadiene prices due to the prevailing weak demand and sufficient inventories.

North America

In North America, the condition of the 1,3-butadiene market resonated with the rest of the globe as the market demonstrated weak momentum throughout the second quarter. Additionally, no improvement in the logistical sector after significant changes in global trading patterns in the previous quarter resulted in delayed purchasing by the overseas sectors. Further, the condition of the domestic market was similar to the international markets. The major setback for the region came from a lack of interest in the EV sector or the automotive industries in general as they themselves struggled with sustaining in the current market scenario.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of 1,3-Butadiene is expected to mimic the trend adopted by its primary driver, i.e., the rubber industries and oscillations in its feedstock crude oil prices.
 

1,3-Butadiene Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

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Asia

In the Asian market, the prices showed an overall inclining trend with occasional stabilization throughout the quarter. The spot prices in China increased from approximately 1183 USD/MT in January to around 1305 USD/MT in March. Initially, a gradual incline in the prices was witnessed, continuing the trend from the previous quarter. Major supply disruptions were witnessed in the upstream market, which kept the prices elevated throughout the quarter.

During this time, the Israeli war against Hamas became more rampant, along with the rise of the attacks on ships by Houthi rebels. These events severely disrupted the supply chains, bringing a surge in prices of most commodities as the ships had to take a longer alternative route to reach the destination. Longer routes resulted in heightened freight costs and longer delivery times, impacting both the supply and prices of 1,3-butadiene. Overall, the market witnessed a sharp surge in prices driven by heightened freight costs and supply chain challenges.

Europe

The prices of 1,3-butadiene were heavily influenced by fluctuations in the crude oil prices resulting from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. This created disruptions in the oil supplies due to frequent missile attacks on key Russian locations, resulting in reduced output, which was ultimately reflected in the incline in prices of 1,3-butadiene. There were some occasional dips in the demand, considering the high prices of the commodity arising from higher shipping costs.

North America

In North America, the price trajectory for 1,3-butadiene closely aligned with the trends observed in Asia and Europe. The market began steadily, with subdued industrial activities in the early days of the New Year holiday season. As the months progressed, however, the market faced mounting shipping and logistical challenges arising from geopolitical uncertainties. This significantly disrupted international trade and increased the reliance on domestic markets. The prices witnessed a gradual inclining trend due to these complications in the logistics sector despite weak demand from tire and other rubber industries.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices of 1,3-butadiene are expected to continue the inclining trend in the near future, driven by the demand from the downstream rubber industries and fluctuating prices of feedstock and crude oil.
 

1,3-Butadiene Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

In China, the exponential surge in the spot prices of 1,3-butadiene from approximately 839.57 USD/MT to 1090 USD/MT in the third quarter and then a minimal decline to 1031 USD/MT at the end of the year reflects the significant industrial growth in the region. However, this was not the scenario in other Asian countries, as the price trend of 1,3-butadiene oscillated around a mean value.

In South Korea, purchasing activities remained subdued in both the third and fourth quarters of 2023, which was evident in the contraction in the number of new orders. Further, the support from the feedstock market was also minimal and insufficient to drive the 1,3-butadiene price trend in an upward trajectory.

Europe

The disturbance in the economic sector prevented any growth in the 1,3-butadiene price trend during the third quarter of 2023. The manufacturers and traders remained under the pressure of dim consumer confidence and a limited number of sales of 1,3-butadiene throughout the third quarter of 2023. However, in the end phase of Q3 and throughout the fourth quarter, the cost of naphtha inclined consistently, projecting a forward momentum for the 1,3-butadiene prices. This helped in the stabilization of prices during the end quarter, and with the suitable improvement in the consumer spending budgets, the 1,3-butadiene was able to have a strong run in the last quarter of the year 2023.

North America

The third quarter of 2023 in North America was no different than the rest of the world in terms of 1,3-butadiene prices. In the US, the domestic producers faced fierce competition from the influx of cheap imports from Asian countries. Initially, the inventories dried up quickly due to certain disbalance in the supply and demand dynamics; however, with the rise in importing and manufacturing activities, the prices soon spiraled downwards.

On the other hand, the onset of Q4 brought some positive winds and the 1,3-butadiene price trend registered a dramatic incline. The rising cost of energy, increased rate of procurement from the downstream rubber and automotive industries, and low rates of production provided a window to the traders for a rise in the 1,3-butadiene price quotations.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of 1,3-Butadiene is estimated to remain stable in the next quarter. The recent bloom in the prices is expected to neutralize after the winter holiday season, and the prices are thus expected to achieve stagnancy.
 

1,3-butadiene Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

The first quarter of 2023 was favorable for 1,3-butadiene as its price trend followed an upward trajectory. The high demand from the synthetic rubber and polymer industries aided the price hike.

The market was speedy in gaining momentum after the Lunar holiday season, and with the rise in production rates, the availability of the product increased in the region. This strong supply was not met with equally strong downstream demand causing the products to stockpile. Hence, the price trend dipped in the second quarter. The spot prices of 1,3-Butadiene averaged around 855 USD/MT in June’23.

Europe

A fluctuating trend in the prices of 1,3-butadiene was observed in the European region. Here, the prices were mostly influenced by the demand from the downstream industries. Initially, the demand for the product fell amid strong supply leading to an oversupply of the product in the market. The downstream sectors, such as polymers, plastics, rubber, etc., reduced their number of offtakes, negatively affecting the market. But soon, the market gained momentum, and the demand surged, supporting the rising prices of 1,3-butadiene.

North America

The 1,3-butadiene market declined in North America in the first two quarters of 2023. The reduced number of inquiries and strong supply disrupted the equilibrium of the market, and in addition to this, the operational rates were also weak, which further aided the downward trajectory of the market. The demand sector was, however, strong and supported the market dynamics, which helped the prices remain afloat in the latter half.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of 1,3-butadiene is estimated to showcase a mixed trend in the upcoming quarters as the demand sector seems strong, but the other market variables seem uncertain.
 

1,3-Butadiene Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

The price trend for 1,3-Butadiene in H2 2022 showed lower swinging trend in the said period. The Chinese manufacturing sector took a hit attributed to the strict zero covid policies of the Chinese government. The downstream demands took a sharp plunge causing the 1,3-Butadiene market to contract. As Q4 approached 1,3-Butadiene market declined further because of feeble demands. But as the year-end approached energy prices started rising and feedstock prices also rose which resulted in higher upstream costs and thus a slight elevation in 1,3-Butadiene prices was seen.

Europe

For the European 1,3-Butadiene market initially, prices declined just like in Asia because of low demands amid a grave economic crisis and high inflation that took a toll on the manufacturing industries. But as Q4 approached the shortened inventories couldn’t support the dull demands and upstream costs generally got high due to higher energy costs, which pushed the 1,3-Butadiene prices up again. But as the yearend approached the supply chains and logistics started normalizing, Chinese lockdowns eased and cheaper imports were accessible, as the supplies improved, market demand didn’t rise in the same manner resulting in 1,3-Butadiene price trend taking a plunge again. Overall, a very mixed kind of market sentiment was observed for 1,3-Butadiene.

North America

The North American market sentiments for 1,3-Butadiene recorded a fluctuating pattern for H2 2022. Global supply chain disruptions and high inflation rates affected every sector in some manner, especially the manufacturing sector. Very consistently low-end consumer demands kept choking the 1,3 Butadiene market. High energy prices and inflation pushed the upstream costs, but the lower demands didn’t help the market sustain.

Analyst insight

According to Procurement Resource, 1,3 Butadiene prices are going to have a mixed run ahead. As the market demand turns out to be the determining factor, any shift in consumer demand will directly affect the market sentiments for 1,3 Butadiene. As supply chains restore the production is expected to remain afloat.
 

1,3-Butadiene Price Trend For the First Half of 2022

Asia

The price trend for Butadiene remained strong in the Chinese domestic market. The robust demand from the downstream rubber and elastomer industries helped keep prices afloat despite the supply-side constraints caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. With shortages of raw materials, inflated freight charges and low production rates ( Covid-19 restrictions), the prices of Butadiene and its feedstock shot up. However, despite the heightened prices, the market sentiment remained strong, which caused the prices of 1,3-Butadiene to increase.

The cost of feedstock ethylene averaged 1346-1356 USD/MT CFR in North and South East Asia. Moreover, towards the end of the second quarter, the 1,3-Butadiene prices began to stabilize as crude oil prices and supply constraints relaxed. The prices of Butadiene averaged around 11000 RMB/MT in North China towards the end of June 2022.

Europe

The Russian conquest of Ukraine unleashed a huge economic backlash in the European arena, whose repercussions were felt globally. The prices of almost all the commodities inflated owing to the western retaliatory sanctions and European embargo on Russian oil. The trade bottlenecks in the Black Sea further delayed the cargoes triggering an energy crisis in Europe.

Despite the climbing feedstock prices, the Butadiene market remained strong due to the solid demand from downstream automotive sectors. The 1,3- Butadiene prices averaged around 1350 USD/MT FD Hamburg. However, towards the end of the second quarter, these constantly rising costs plateaued due to the substitute shipments from Africa and Latin American nations. The prices stabilized around 1385-1395 FD Northwestern Europe.

North America

Initially, at the beginning of the current year, the butadiene prices were low owing to the reduced market sentiments, low production costs and vast stockpiles in the market. However, the prices began to soar in March due to the increasing costs of crude oil and natural gas.

These increased costs increased production costs as the feedstock prices exploded along with the power costs required to maintain constant outputs from refineries. Towards the end of the first quarter, the price of Butadiene averaged 1445 USD/MT FD Texas. These price trend remained strong during the second quarter due to the intense market demands from the automotive and resin factories.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of 1,3-Butadiene. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.