Aluminium (Cash) Price Trend and Forecast

Aluminium (Cash) Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Aluminium (Cash) in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Aluminium (Cash) Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

In Q2 2024, Aluminium (Cash) experienced a notable decline, driven primarily by weakened demand prospects in China amidst slowing economic growth, rising inventories, and underwhelming lending figures. China's economic growth slowed to 4.7% in the second quarter, the lowest since early 2023, falling short of expectations and highlighting subdued demand. Despite this, China's primary aluminum production surged to a record high, with June's output reaching 3.67 million metric tons, a 6.2% year-on-year increase, as producers ramped up operations to capitalize on higher profit margins.
 

Aluminium (Cash) Price Chart

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This increase was supported by additional capacity in Inner Mongolia and the resumption of production in Yunnan, powered by ample hydropower supply. The market saw a technical trend of long liquidation, with a 2.5% drop in open interest as prices dipped, and LME aluminum prices also continued their downward trend in the quarter-ending days. Meanwhile, the SHFE aluminum prices also saw declines, reflecting the broader market challenges. Overall, the aluminum market in Q2 was marked by a complex interplay of increased supply and weaker demand, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, given the current demand patterns, the Aluminium (cash) prices are likely to remain subdued in the upcoming quarter as well.
 

Aluminium (Cash) Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

During the initial phase first quarter of 2024, the global Aluminium (Cash) market depicted weak sentiments. This stagnation in the market was largely influenced by the economic slowdown in China, particularly in its property and construction sectors, and broader economic deceleration in the major economies worldwide.

Despite various measures by the Chinese government to stabilize the property market, its impact on the price of Aluminium (Cash) was yet to be observed in the early phase. Additionally, at the end of the year 2023, the surplus of carryover stocks exerted downward pressure on the prices. However, in China, the traders noted an increase in demand from the solar, electric vehicles, and transmission infrastructure sectors, although it was only efficient in driving the demand momentum of the commodity in the later half.

Meanwhile, the Western nations continued to avoid Russian Aluminium (Cash), representing about 6% of global production, further adding to the existing uncertainties. However, as the quarter progressed towards its end, the limited production of this commodity in China due to power outrage in Inner Mongolia reduced the supply-demand gap and supported a slight uptrend in the price trend of Aluminium (Cash). On the demand side, post-Lantern Festival, recovery in downstream consumption suggested a potential strong outlook for Aluminium (Cash) prices in the near future.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Aluminium (Cash) is expected to improve amid trading speculations, tensions in the Middle East, re-routing of the traditional trade routes, and recovery of demand dynamics in the Asian countries.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Aluminium (Cash). Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.