Aluminium Sheet Price Trend and Forecast

Aluminium Sheet Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Aluminium Sheet in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Aluminium Sheet Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

Asia

The price of aluminium sheet remained volatile in the third quarter of 2024 in the Chinese market, showing a fluctuating trend with occasional ups and downs. At the beginning of the quarter, prices continued their decline from the previous quarter. Increased local aluminium production in July helped stabilize upstream supply dynamics for aluminium sheets in the region, pressurizing the market prices downwards.
 

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On the demand side, the downstream aluminium sheet processing industry was operating at a weak pace, due to a notable decline in orders. This downward trend persisted for some time, and by the end of the month, aluminium sheet prices had dropped to near their marginal cost. In August, the market showed signs of recovery, driven by low inventory levels, although demand remained moderate. This cautious market sentiment was largely influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which were announced in late September. Following the announcement, aluminium sheet prices began to rise.

Europe

The price of aluminium sheet fluctuated during the quarter. At the beginning, market conditions were weak, with low demand from sectors like construction, automotive, and others. In Germany, the market was slowing down, and recycled materials were in limited supply. Similarly, Italy and Spain experienced subdued demand for secondary aluminium sheet.

Intense competition for scrap led to reduced profit margins and difficulties for smaller yards. While demand remained subdued for most of the quarter, tighter supply supported the market. Availability was limited due to low production levels from cuts over the past two years, the lack of Russian metal, and sanctions from the U.K. and U.S. The market improved when U.S. federal cuts were announced, boosting sentiment and prices.

North America

In North America, aluminium sheet prices were expected to benefit from anticipated interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. When the Fed announced a 50-basis point cut, aluminium sheet prices rose. This increase was driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, making aluminium sheet more affordable for international buyers using other currencies. As a result, aluminium sheet prices increased both domestically and globally.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of aluminium sheet is expected to incline in the near future with the enthusiasm brought by the U.S. Federal Reserve interest cuts, but subdued demand and logistical challenges can pose a threat to the rising prices.
 

Aluminium Sheet Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Asia

In the initial phase of the second quarter, the aluminium sheet prices carried forward the stable trend from the previous quarter, but towards the end, the momentum trailed off. In China, the cost of raw materials increased after the force majeure announced by Australian Yarwun Smelters and Queensland Alumina Limited due to a shortage of natural gas inventory for power generation, raising the quotations for aluminium sheets as well.

However, as the quarter approached its end, China’s increased production, followed by the dry season, contributed significantly to the decline in aluminium sheet prices. On the other hand, the demand for the commodity turned sluggish as its property sector and lackluster factory output faced noticeable falls. Additionally, the US and European sectors targeted Chinese aluminium imports by raising tariffs, further raising the concerns of Chinese producers.

Europe

On the production side, the European traders witnessed significant growth during the second quarter of 2024. With a substantial decline in energy production costs, many production units of aluminium and its derivatives, such as aluminium sheets, announced plans to boost their production volumes. However, amid this surging manufacturing activities, the European producers imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese imports to protect its domestic players, amid slow demand. However, the global supply of the commodity was limited due to bans on the trading of Russian metals and persistent Red Sea struggles, which might favor the price trend of aluminium sheets in future months.

North America

In order to restrict the dumping of low-price Chinese aluminium sheets in North America, the government announced significant tariffs on imports. During the mid of May, the tariffs on certain aluminium products went up to approximately 25% from an average of 0-7.5% previously.

Similar to the European countries, the US announced these strict regulations in order to protect its in-house production, which by the end phase of the second quarter overpowered the existing domestic as well as overseas demand. The market was further altered by the imposition of similar tariffs on electric vehicles, one of the primary drivers of aluminium sheet demand, dampening its overall market outlook by the month of June.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Aluminium Sheet is expected to gain its lost momentum in the next quarter as the gradual growth of downstream automotive, construction, and electric vehicles sectors will impact the aluminium sheet price trend positively.
 

Aluminium Sheet Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Asia

The Asian aluminium sheet market has shown remarkable resilience despite a notable increase in raw material prices. The surge in prices of key raw materials, such as alumina, was triggered by disruptions in bauxite transportation from Guinea following a fatal explosion. This disruption threatened production cuts and supply shortages. However, the aluminium sheet market in Asia remained stable, indicating a well-balanced market influenced by factors such as sufficient inventory levels and steady demand from manufacturing sectors.

The consistent pricing of aluminium sheets amidst fluctuating raw material prices has provided market participants with a sense of stability and predictability, aiding in effective supply chain management strategies.

Europe

In the first quarter of 2024, the European aluminium sheet market experienced fluctuations driven by trade-related uncertainties. The market started weak but showed signs of improvement later, influenced by potential interest rate cuts and policy injections in China. Concerns about potential supply disruptions due to potential EU sanctions on Russian aluminium and disruptions in Guinea also impacted market conditions.

Despite these challenges, aluminium sheet prices in Europe remained stable, maintaining a certain range. The closure of a major smelter in the US also affected market dynamics, impacting supply. Looking ahead, challenges related to oversupply are expected, especially with China increasing production. However, industries like renewables and new energy vehicles in Europe are anticipated to help absorb some of the surplus stock.

North America

The aluminium sheet price trends exhibited variations in the price procession during the first quarter of the year 2024. Quarter one began on a weaker note in January as the downstream demands were very feverish during that time. The various genomic factors played a role in this tepid demand trajectory in the early days. Later on, however, the supply situation started getting very complicated.

Russian supplies were already sanctioned, and the plant closure in Marston, Missouri, created some supply concerns as the Bauxite and other ore supplies were also disrupted from Guinea. Because of this, a very hybrid kind of price trend was witnessed during the said time.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Aluminium Sheet market behavior is not likely to change significantly in the coming months. Supply outlook will remain a key driver in the global aluminium sheet market.
 

Aluminium Sheet Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

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Asia

The historical data of aluminium sheet prices from the previous quarters showcased a significant appreciation, and the fourth quarter of 2023 was not different from them. During the mid of the quarter, China started focusing on green ways of synthesis of aluminium sheet and its related products as the conventional methods fell short in front of the growing demand for aluminium sheet.

Further, many Russian manufacturing giants moved towards Asian countries for their supply of raw materials, which additionally assisted in the rise in the prices of aluminium sheets. However, the strengthening of the US dollar in comparison to the Asian currency added some resistance to this growing trend.

Europe

The push up in the prices of aluminium sheets was not only limited to Asian countries. In Europe too, the bloom in the automotive sector and moderate demand from the manufacturing industries worked in favor of the prices of the aluminium sheet.

However, the traders feared that the recovery of the aluminium sheets market was not as strong as expected compared to the previous year. Further, the economic pressure that Europe faced during the past few months was visible in the trajectory of the prices of aluminium sheet in the fourth quarter.

North America

In North America, the influence of demand for aluminium sheet was much lesser as compared to the impact of the global economy. The federal government has shut its gates of any economic relief to the consumers and manufacturers, which in turn led to the closure of several production units. The debt ceiling rose and raised concerns over the lower appetite of consumers, and thus also hinted at the downfall of the prices of aluminium sheet.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Aluminium Sheet price trend are expected to be driven by the automotive industries and the expansion of Russian trade toward Asian countries.
 

Aluminium Sheet Price Trend for the July - September of 2023

Asia

Despite the negative influence of a number of factors, the aluminium sheet price trend were able to maintain a stable trajectory in the third quarter of 2023. The market activities were hampered by the weak demand and lower purchasing potential of consumers.

Along with this, the plunging economic conditions and the steep rate of decline of feedstock costs also proved to be a challenge for the outlook of the aluminium sheet price graph. However, on the other hand, the positive rate of production, improvement in the sales of the automotive sector, and increased interest of consumers in the electric vehicle sector supported the upwards trend of aluminium sheet prices.

Europe

In the initial phase of Q3, the prices of aluminium sheets struggled with poor economic growth and a decline in inventory levels. In addition to this, the restrictions on the export from several Asia Pacific countries reduced the level of stockpiles of aluminium sheets in the region.

The demand scenario for aluminium sheets, especially from the automotive industries, however, grew consistently and supported the northward movement of the aluminium sheet price trajectory. Even in the middle of an economic upturn and fluctuating interest rates, stability in export levels and high demand eventually led to the rise in the prices of aluminium sheets.

North America

The hike in the interest charged by banks and rising inflation rates increased the cost of production and, in turn, the prices of aluminium sheets in the third quarter of 2023. The inclining trajectory of the aluminium sheet price graph was also supported by the growth of eco-friendly automotive products and the rise in the number of sales of electric vehicles. Further, the market also witnessed a rise in the competition levels due to the influx of Chinese imports in the region and thus helped in the upwards movement of aluminium sheet price trend.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Aluminium sheets is estimated to follow an inclining trajectory due to the rise in demand for environment-friendly vehicles.
 

Aluminium Sheet Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

In the Asian region, aluminium sheet prices were significantly impacted by the price trend of aluminium ingot. In the first quarter, there was a significant reduction in the market activities of the construction industry that hampered the demand for aluminium sheets in the Asia Pacific region. In addition, the rise in labor strikes caused a halt in a large number of orders and caused the price trend of aluminium sheets to fall.

Europe

A southward trajectory in the price trend of the aluminium sheet was witnessed in the European market. The softening demands from downstream industries, and the fear of a spike in prices reduced the confidence of buyers in this sector.

The supply of material in the first quarter also remained constrained due to a lack of support from Russia’s metal industry. In the second quarter, the market dynamics overturned as the level of inventories reduced and the cost of production rose. In addition, the cost of feedstock materials and improving market sentiments of the automotive sector also supported the incline in prices of aluminium sheets.

North America

The huge fall in the banking sector of North America caused an adverse effect on the price trend of aluminium sheets in the first quarter of 2023. As a result, the number of new orders fell and demand from the downstream industries remained weak throughout the quarter.

The graph of inflation in North America rose, and hikes in interest rates further added to the injury. However, the trend inclined in the second quarter due to improvement in the market dynamics of the downstream industries and a gradual reduction in the level of inventories. In this quarter, the prices of feedstock also supported the trend of aluminium sheets.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Aluminium Sheet is expected to showcase a mixed trajectory as the downstream sector is showing improvements, but the rising inflation and interest rates will likely impact the global market.

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