Aluminium Price Trend and Forecast

Aluminium Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Aluminium in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

 

Aluminium Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

Asia

The price of aluminium remained volatile in the Chinese market during the third quarter of 2024. The price trajectory exhibited fluctuations, with notable ups and downs. At the start of the quarter, prices continued the declining trend from the previous quarter, driven primarily by the higher production of aluminum in July. A significant increase in aluminum ingot production during this month boosted supply and contributed to the price drop. On the demand side, the downstream aluminum processing industry operated at a subdued pace, with downstream enterprises running at low capacities due to a notable decline in orders.
 

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This downward trend persisted for some time, and by the end of the month, aluminum prices had fallen close to their marginal cost. In August, the market saw a slight recovery, driven by low inventory, although demand remained average. This cautious market sentiment was influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which were confirmed in late September. Following this announcement, aluminum prices began to rise.

Europe

The price of aluminum fluctuated during the given quarter. At the beginning of the period, market conditions were weak, as demand from downstream sectors such as construction, automotive, and others was low. In Germany, the aluminum market was slowing down, with limited availability of recycled materials. Similarly, Italy and Spain saw subdued demand for secondary aluminum. Competition for aluminum scrap was high, which led to reduced profit margins and challenges for smaller yards.

Although demand remained low for most of the quarter, tighter supply conditions provided some support to the aluminum market. Availability was significantly restricted due to low production levels resulting from substantial cuts in the past two years, a reduction in Russian metal supply caused by self-sanctioning by consumers, and official sanctions from the U.K. and U.S. governments. The market saw an improvement, with prices rising following the announcement of U.S. federal cuts, which boosted market sentiment.

North America

In North America, aluminum prices were expected to benefit from the anticipated interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. When the Fed announced a 50-basis point reduction, aluminum prices rose. The increase was driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, which made aluminum more affordable for international buyers using other currencies. This rise contributed to higher aluminum prices both domestically and globally.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of aluminum is expected to incline in the near future depending on the enthusiasm brought by the U.S. Federal Reserve interest cuts, but subdued demand and logistical challenges can pose a threat to the rising prices.
 

Aluminium Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Product	Category	Region	Price	Time Period
Aluminium	Energy, Metals and Minerals	China	2893 USD/MT	Q2 2024

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Asia

In the early phase of Q2’24, the aluminium prices in China were driven by the surge in raw material prices and limited supply of the commodity in the region due to a constrained influx of overseas imports and the slow recovery of the market post-holiday season. The supply disruptions were further elevated by a halt in operations at Rio Tinto’s Australian unit. However, as June approached, the pace of the market slowed down, with the downstream sectors like photovoltaic modules presenting a dim demand for the commodity.

In a similar phase, Yunnan aluminium enterprises increased their production capacities, adding additional pressure on the trading sector and widening the supply-demand gap. With the quarter approaching its end, the market moved towards a more stable trend, and traders closed the market at a price quotation of a monthly average of 2893 USD/MT, with a small gain from approximately 2796 USD/MT in the initial phase.

Europe

In the second quarter of 2024, the European aluminium market faced significant challenges, particularly in Germany. Despite efforts to boost recycled aluminium production, which reached 685,000 tons from January to March, semi-finished aluminium production saw a notable decline, with an overall reduction of 6%.

Rolled aluminium products experienced a moderate 5% decline, while extruded products dropped by 13%, influenced by competitive pressures from Turkish imports. High energy costs and a sluggish economic environment exacerbated the situation, with demand from critical sectors like construction and electric vehicles remaining low.

The competitive landscape was further strained by Turkish manufacturers benefiting from cheaper Russian primary metal, raising concerns about unfair trade practices. Despite cautious optimism from Aluminium Deutschland, citing slight increases in tube and aerosol can deliveries, the industry remains wary of high energy costs, potential economic recession, and regulatory challenges. This environment has led to a subdued outlook for aluminium prices in Europe, with market conditions reflecting both reduced production capacities and competitive international pressures.

North America

In the second quarter of 2024, the Biden government announced additional tariffs on the imports of aluminium from mainland China ahead of the election season in order to protect its domestic market from cheap Asian imports. Although the interest of the US market in Chinese imports had already declined significantly since the advent of the new year, these tariffs have made the situation more complex.

The tensions in the market become more significant as the aluminium markets are already strained by sanctions on Russian trade. The immediate of these tariffs was quite visible in the prices of aluminium and its derivatives which soared around the middle of the quarter. However, as domestic production geared up to cater to the in-house demand, the prices of the commodity eventually trailed off.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Aluminium is expected to continue its declining trend as the present market conditions are likely to be challenged by the excessive supply of feedstock oils and limited procurement rates.
 

Aluminium Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Product	Category	Region	Price	Time Period
Aluminium	Energy, Metals and Minerals	Europe	2343.02 USD/MT	March 2024
Aluminium	Energy, Metals and Minerals	China	2672.42 USD/MT	March 2024
Aluminium	Energy, Metals and Minerals	India	2473.02 USD/MT	March 2024

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Asia

In the first quarter of 2024, aluminium prices in China encountered significant fluctuations driven by the complex interplay of supply constraints, demand dynamics, and macroeconomic factors. Although, starting with a decline in January due to decreased alumina costs and logistical challenges, prices saw a moderate recovery towards the end of the quarter. The severe weather conditions and logistical disruptions in bauxite supply initially tightened the market, but improved production volumes gradually alleviated these constraints.

Despite low inventory levels providing some price support, the seasonal low consumption period and the Spring Festival holiday led to reduced orders and a potential inventory build-up. By February, aluminium prices stabilized as downstream industries resumed operations post-holiday, supported by steady demand from the automotive and construction sectors.

In March, the prices saw further price strengthening, influenced by the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts, improved downstream consumption, and partial resumption of production in Yunnan. Overall, the quarter ended with aluminium prices in a moderately strong position, reflecting a balance of supply-side challenges and recovering demand.

Europe

In the first quarter of 2024, the European aluminium market, particularly in Germany, faced significant production declines across nearly all subsectors, escalating the pressure from increasing imports and creating a challenging environment for domestic manufacturers. Recycled aluminium production, crucial for Europe's decarbonization goals, fell sharply, with Germany producing 685,000 tonnes, marking a notable decrease. This downturn was further compounded by growing competitive pressure from countries like Turkey, whose market share in Germany's aluminium extrusion sector has increased significantly.

Despite these challenges, there is optimism for future demand growth in aluminium extrusions, driven by a post-pandemic resurgence and increased market interest. However, the current position of the market highlights the need for strategic responses to competitive pressures and supply chain disruptions to stabilize and potentially reverse the declining production trends in the European aluminium industry.

North America

The North American aluminium market registered moderate gains in the second quarter of 2024. The pricing trajectory of the commodity was influenced by the changing outlook of the global trading sector amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions and disruption of traditional routes. This led to constriction of supply chains and, therefore, limited the influx of the commodity in the region. Although, demand for aluminium grew gradually, outpacing domestic production as well as overseas import, widening the supply-demand gap. Meanwhile, global mining activities in key countries also took a downturn amid the increasing environmental regulations, further constricting the supply chains and asserting positive pressure on aluminium prices.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Aluminium is expected to be driven by the growth of global automotive industries and the limited supply of raw materials.
 

Aluminium Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

The aluminium price trend was observed to be constantly fluctuating throughout the second half of the year 2023. In the Asian region, the Chinese market was relatively more stable and positively inclined than the Indian market. In the Chinese domestic market, the average monthly prices rose by about 4% from July to October, then marginally slid in November, only to rise again in December.

Conclusively the third quarter was more inclined than the fourth. The dwindling nature of prices in the last three months was primarily because of the shipping curtailments in the Red Sea and political, social, and economic unrest in the Middle East.

The average monthly prices (Contract, FD) in China went from about 2546 USD/MT (Contract, FD) in July’23 to around 2643 USD/MT in December’23, registering an overall inclination of about 3%. On the other hand, the Indian aluminium industry witnessed even more fluctuations as the prices here wavered within an even narrower range. The monthly average prices in the Indian market went from around 2440 USD/MT (Contract, FD) in July to about 2443 USD/MT in December.

Europe

The European aluminium market was evidently unstable during the said period. At the beginning of the third quarter, the prices first declined from July to August because of high inventory support and then inclined in the next set of months as the demand increased. As the last quarter approached, the market movement became even more sullen.

Primarily, the sluggishness in the global aluminium market was reflected in the regional price trend; along with that, the strained performance of the downstream construction industry was also playing a major role. Overall, mixed market performance was witnessed.

North America

The American aluminium industry almost replicated the market behavior of its European counterpart as the prices were witnessed to be oscillating here as well. The American market had a slow start in July because of a questionable performance by the construction and infrastructure sectors. However, as the inventories started running out, some temporary and marginal improvement was seen in the prices. However, the latter quarter again turned meek, with a tepid turn in the price graph.

International trade suffered because of the Panama Canal restrictions as the Houthi attacks increased in the Red Sea. The market could not recover from dull demands for the majority of the last quarter. The prices were oscillating at the lower end.

Analyst insight

According to Procurement Resource, given the current slump in the aluminium markets, the suppliers have become cautious and are ordering carefully. Thus, the market prices are expected to improve going forward. Market projections suggest a positive price movement for the coming months.
 

Aluminium Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

The Asian Aluminium market exhibited mixed price trend in the first half of 2023. From January to February, prices rose marginally because steady demands from downstream manufacturing sectors supported cost. But in the next month, prices started sliding majorly because the USA imposed a 200% tariff on Russian aluminium imports, which is the second biggest producer of Aluminium in March 2023. This diverted Russian supplies from America to its friendly Asian nations, which reduced upstream cost support, aiding declining trend.

The only jump in the price trend came at the change of quarter because of a sudden influx of international orders because of US tariffs, but soon the oversupply took over, and prices started declining again after April. Aluminium prices started in January at an average of about 2705 USD/MT (Contract FD) in the Chinese domestic market and ended quarter 2 with an average of around 2610 USD/MT (Contract FD) on June 23’. Indian Aluminium market too exhibited similar trend in the said period, with prices averaging at around 2512 USD/MT (Contract FD) in June’23.

Europe

European Aluminium prices also exhibited mixed patterns. Quarter one had a slow start because suppliers made conscious purchases amidst ambiguity around Aluminium prices. Also, struggles with inflation and high energy prices rendered severe cost of living crisis. Germany even underwent an economic recession in February 2023. These events impacted European consumers’ purchasing capacities and behaviour, making it more necessity centric. So, because of dipped downstream demands, price trend for Aluminium remained dull and drowned in quarter one.

But as the second quarter approached, US tariffs on Russian imports created scarcity in Western markets. Moreover, because of some economic rebound, markets started thawing a little, which increased downstream demands, and existing inventories were already limited because of conscious purchases by suppliers and could not support the rising demands. So, the prices were set on an inclined trajectory for most of Quarter 2.

North America

The North American Aluminium market almost replicated the European market for price trend. Quarter one started with saturated inventories as economic setbacks from the collapse of 2 major US banks and increased interest rates negatively impacted the purchasing activities and abbreviated the downstream demands. So, the prices laid low for most of the first quarter.

As the second quarter approached effects of America’s 200% tariff imposition on Russian Aluminium imports started showing an impact. Upstream costs rose as inventories started depleting, catering to the growing demands from downstream manufacturing and construction sectors. So, the Aluminium prices mostly dwelled on the higher side for the majority of the second quarter.

Analyst Insight

According to the Procurement Resource, the price trend for Aluminium are expected to continue in the same mixed patterns. The market will be influenced by upstream costs and downstream demands, with demands continuing as the primary driving factor.
 

Aluminium Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

With the dollar strengthening and the interest rates hike by the central bank the feeling of economic recession dominated the market’s sentiments and as a result, the bulk commodities plunged. The price trend of aluminium fell during the said period showing a slight increment from time to time. Though the production costs stabilized during the third quarter, the overall prices remained weak owing to muted demand from downstream sectors. The prices of aluminium ingots averaged 18453.33 RMB/MT towards the end of the third quarter.

The Chinese government had imposed restrictions on heavy industries with a plan to reduce carbon emissions, which had an impact on aluminium prices. Incessant power shortages in the country also disturbed the supply chain of the commodity this year. Aluminium prices stabilized a bit during the fourth quarter for a short term, however, overall prices kept weak averaging 18716.67 RMB/MT towards the end of December’22.

Europe

The European region faced the direct consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggering an acute energy crisis. With the high-cost inflation and high operating rates, the manufacturers passed on the higher prices to the consumers to cushion their profits resulting in demand destruction. The lowered demand caused the European manufacturers to seek to offload expensive metal leaving limited buffer stock only. Hence, the price trend for aluminium dwindled in the European domestic market.

North America

The aluminium prices in the US domestic market were in line with the global outlook. The prices fell owing to weak demand from the construction and electrical sectors amid high sourcing and operating costs.

Analyst Insight

Due to surging inflations, central banks hiked the interest rates worldwide, controlling the purchasing power and thereby limiting demand. However, going forward the aluminium price trend are expected to strengthen as demand rebounds slowly from the turmoil seen last year.
 

Aluminium Price Trend For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

In China, Aluminium prices reached a six-month low owing to the stringent covid lockdown restrictions amidst the rising cases. The fear in the market because of uncertainty and low running capacities of the industries caused the prices to fall in the domestic market. 

However, after relaxing the restrictions, the industries started churning the metal at enhanced capacities, which led to stockpiling in the market because of the muted demands in downstream sectors. Hence, the price trend crashed further, averaging around 2685 USD/MT on the domestic front.

Europe

The production of primary Aluminium is a highly energy intensive process. The European industrial sector is already facing an acute energy crisis due to the ongoing confrontation. The high production costs, complex supply, and increased demand from the automotive industry caused the Aluminium price increase in the region.

With sanctions against Russia, the European governments are frantically working to meet the domestic demands. During this forecast quarter, the prices averaged 2950 USD/MT on London Metal Exchange.

North America

The price trend were in line with its Asian counterpart due to the muted demand and higher production levels. The price of Aluminium averaged 2400 USD/MT (approx.) in the United States.
 

Aluminium Price Trend For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

In March 2022, in China, per ton price of Aluminium was 22640 RMB/MT. Secondary or recycled Aluminium makes for a sizable portion of worldwide Aluminium usage. Due to its cost-effectiveness, scrap from automobiles, equipment, beverage cans, and machinery was recycled and reused.

Reprocessing secondary metal or trash uses a fraction of the energy necessary to produce new metal from mining, resulting in less environmental damage. In addition, measures such as the creation of automobile disassembly and shredding factories, as well as depollution centres, aided market expansion. Furthermore, widespread usage of the metal in the transportation industry was boosted the Aluminium demand even further.

Europe

Since the beginning of 2022, European aluminium prices have risen by roughly 15%, surpassing its historic high of October 2021 - an increase of more than 60% compared to January 2021. Because energy accounts for a large share of production costs, more than a third, a fast increase in the price of gas has a significant influence on company profitability, particularly in Europe, where natural gas prices have climbed by about 550% from December 2020 to December 2021.

As a result, European aluminium manufacturers are forced to make a difficult decision. Either they shut down their smelters or they cut back on production, even if it means losing money. This is the option selected by Europe's largest smelter at the end of December 2021. Aluminium prices on LME were 3300 USD/MT in January 2022.
 

Aluminium Price Trend For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

China had begun to reduce its Aluminium production in 2021 and instead chose to import large volumes which not only created a global shortage of the metal but also increased the prices for the commodity. In November 2021, an Aluminium factory in Yunnan, China suffered a major explosion. This led to a complete halt to production in the region, reducing the production capacity by 300,000 tonnes which impacted the already suffering market supply.

Europe

In most European countries, the energy prices had been increasing significantly in the last quarter of 2021 making the metal’s production highly expensive in the region. In Germany, the average EPEX market price was recorded at 220 USD per megawatt hour which had almost doubled from last year. In France, it had been tripled to close to 300 USD per megawatt hour. This surge in energy prices pushed the major smelters to cut down their productions.

The Aluminium Dunkerque in France, a major producer of Aluminium slab and ingots had reduced its production capacity by 3.7% as compared to previous year. Romanian producers, like Alro, also commentated that Aluminium production had been unsustainable in the final quarter of 2021.

North America

In 2021, the US was the largest importer of the metal. Aluminium prices had been soaring high in the final quarter 2934 USD/MT as compared to the 2004 USD/MT in the first quarter of the year. Aluminium prices are likely to increase in the upcoming times owing to the supply shortages, the shift towards greener economy, the reduction of carbon emissions in China and the rising demand from the automotive industry for electric vehicles. The high prices of energy sources are also key growth drivers in this market.

Latin America

In Brazil, Alcoa, a major producer of the metal, declared to resume its plant production activities in Sao Luis, Alumar with a plant capacity of 260,000 tonnes per year to keep up with the changing global scenario for the Aluminium market. The plant is resuming operations in spite of the hydro-electric problems in Brazil owing to the drought. This increase in production and supply of Aluminium is likely to impact the market soon. In the final quarter of 2021, Aluminium prices were 14.64k BRL/MT.
 

Aluminium Price Trend For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

The production of the metal in China during the first quarter was 6.3 % higher as compared to the previous year. The demand for the metal is being pushed by the shift towards a greener economy and its demand and consumption are expected to go up in the upcoming years.

However, at the same time in China, the carbon emissions were recorded at 420 million tonnes in 2020, which was then capped at 45 million tonnes for 2021 which means that Beijing will witness a change in its supply forms and switch to secondary supply like metal scraps which may generate a market uncertainty.

Other issues are the energy cap imposed on smelters and workers due to the coal shortage. The production plateaued in certain regions which increased the prices along with a growing consumption as more and more people shift towards electric vehicles.

Europe

Due to the supply deficit, the prices had been increasing in Europe. Due to excessive Chinese imports, the supply gap for Aluminium was widened as the market was undersupplied by 480,000 tonnes of the metal and this shortage is likely to continue in the upcoming years, as reported by major financial or manufacturing firms like Alcoa, ING and Dutch Multinational. The energy shift towards renewable sources has been a major growth driver for the Aluminium industry.

North America

The prices witnessed a three-year high in 2021 in the US. Production had been booming in China. The market was tight amidst supply concerns. In the meantime supply concerns were rising with the increasing demand for manufactured goods. Aluminium prices in London Metal Exchange were as high as 2535 USD/MT in the second quarter of 2021. The Chinese imports for the metal had increased by 36% in April 2021, which led to the price flare.
 

Aluminium Price Trend For the Year 2020

Asia

In the first half of the year, price of the metal China had dropped but started to recover slowly after March. From 2234 USD/MT in the beginning of the year, Aluminium prices plummeted to 1791 USD/MT in March which continued till July, as demands came down due to the shutting down of industries in the first quarter owing to the pandemic.

In July, the price rose again to 2217 USD/MT and dropped to 2188 USD/MT in September. The prices started to rise again in October and surpassed 2500 USD/MT. By December, Aluminium prices in China had reached 2617 USD/MT, the highest in 2020. The Chinese production witnessed record high values at close to 37 million tonnes of production.

Europe

The falling demand for the metal due to the pandemic caused the prices to fall steadily in the first half of 2020. The global economy had slowed down as most industries like automobile, aerospace and construction had been hit critically by the lockdowns which resulted a slump in its global consumption and demand.

The Norwegian Aluminium producer Norsk Hydro reported that the primary global consumption had fallen by 9.41% in the first half of 2020. The production however, at the same time, had been steady with a surplus in the market. Nevertheless, the economies started to expand after the lockdowns were lifted and demand and prices were on the rise in the third and final quarters of 2020.

North America

The average price in the US in 2020 was 1704 USD/MT. The demand had plunged in the first half of 2020 as a result of shutting down of industries due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic slowdown and a surplus supply caused the prices to decline further.

The Aluminium LME (London Metal Exchange) prices in the beginning of 2020 were 1772 USD/MT which went down to 1602 USD/MT in the first half of the year. This price slump continued till July. However, Aluminium prices started to recover in August and by October the prices had exceeded 1800 USD/MT. In November, the prices went up to 2000 USD/MT and the highest price in the year, 2051 USD/MT, was recorded in the first week of December. The demand for the metal had risen as production activities resumed all around the world.

Latin America

In Brazil, the prices were affected not just by the pandemic and overproduction, but also by the shutdown of four production lines of Albras due to an electrical fire. In Venezuela, the Aluminium market was crippled due to the absence of a commercial vision, the dropping value of Bolivar exchange rate against USD, infrastructure problems along with political instability in spite of having immense hydroelectric power and modern alumina refinery and bauxite supplies.

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