Asia
The Chinese liquid ammonia market displayed notable volatility during the fourth quarter, with pricing movements reflecting shifting supply-demand dynamics. The opening period witnessed relative stability as prices stopped their earlier declining trend and entered range-bound consolidation. Supply remained at medium-high operating levels with few maintenance activities, creating oversupply conditions that kept prices subdued. Natural gas feedstock costs declined substantially, reducing production cost support for gas-based producers. Downstream demand from urea and compound fertilizer sectors remained tepid as agricultural consumption failed to meet seasonal expectations, while industrial demand maintained baseline levels without significant variation. Mid-quarter brought pronounced strengthening as supply conditions tightened due to environmental inspections affecting northern production facilities and maintenance shutdowns at multiple plants. Compound fertilizer operating rates increased, improving urea demand and supporting price appreciation. The latter portion witnessed moderation as environmental inspections concluded and maintenance-affected facilities prepared to resume operations, returning the market toward balanced supply-demand conditions with prices stabilizing at levels below mid-quarter peaks.
Meanwhile, Indian ammonia markets experienced consistent strengthening throughout the entire fourth quarter. The Rabi season, representing India's winter crop cycle, generated heightened fertilizer demand as farmers prepared fields and applied nutrients for wheat, pulses, and other winter crops. Supply-demand fundamentals tightened as domestic production struggled to fully meet elevated consumption requirements from the agricultural sector. The progressive price increases reflected this seasonal demand surge, with fertilizer manufacturers and distributors maintaining active procurement schedules to serve agricultural markets. The prices were about 448 USD/MT (CFR) in October and around 460 USD/MT in December.
Europe
European ammonia market trends closely resembled the Chinese market trends, with initial stability transitioning to mid-quarter strength before moderating toward year-end. The opening period displayed consolidation as conventional ammonia supply remained adequate. Mid-quarter brought appreciation driven by supply disruptions at major production facilities and preparations for Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism implementation. The latter portion witnessed stabilization as market participants adjusted inventories ahead of regulatory changes, with prices consolidating gains achieved during the strengthening phase.
North America
North American markets mirrored Chinese and European dynamics, experiencing initial range-bound conditions followed by slight appreciation and late-quarter moderation. Supply disruptions at key production facilities created temporary tightness, supporting price increases during the middle portion. New capacity additions provided relief toward quarter-end, allowing prices to stabilize at elevated but more sustainable levels as the period concluded.