Ammonium Chloride Price Trend and Forecast

Ammonium Chloride Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Ammonium Chloride in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Ammonium Chloride Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

Asia

The ammonium chloride market experienced notable vacillations during the third quarter of 2024, with prices fluctuating within a defined range. Early in the quarter, prices stabilized as market participants took a cautious approach in response to declining ammonia prices, a key feedstock. The fluctuating prices of feedstocks, combined with a surplus supply and high inventories, slowed market activity for several weeks.
 

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Logistical challenges also emerged due to frequent rainfall in various regions, affecting supply. Export activities remained subdued, particularly as Chinese policymakers implemented export cuts on fertilizers to protect farmers from sudden price increases during the planting season. Demand from agrochemical enterprises was moderate, coinciding with the mid-crop season for several crops.

Europe

In Europe, the ammonium chloride market mirrored fluctuations in the Chinese market, influenced by various factors. While upstream ammonia prices were declining, it had a limited effect on ammonium chloride prices. Demand for ammonium chloride remained moderate, supported by a positive outlook. Notably, downstream demand from agrochemical industries increased, although imports from China were constrained due to government-imposed export restrictions on fertilizers. Additionally, supply limitations arose from sanctions on Russian natural gas, a key feedstock for fertilizer production, leading to a supply shortage until European countries could replace Russian imports with Egyptian natural gas. Despite a significant slowdown in Russian natural gas imports, some low-cost fertilizer imports could still be detected in markets. Overall mixed market sentiments were witnessed.

North America

The prices of ammonium chloride followed a stable trend with marginal fluctuations. Demand from industries such as fertilizers, dyes, explosives, and metalworks remained positive. Feedstock prices had a limited impact on ammonium chloride prices. However, supply disruptions caused by the hurricane season negatively affected the market. Hurricane Beryl, which impacted parts of Louisiana, led to supply issues as production plants were forced to shut down. Additionally, chemical industries in North America were preparing for a potential rail strike in Canada. Some suppliers of chlorine and hydrochloric acid (HCl) were seeking to delay the strike, as their products are key feedstocks for various industries. This nationwide strike is expected to impact the prices of many chemical products, including ammonium chloride.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices of ammonium chloride are expected to continue their volatile trend in the coming months depending on the price trend of its feedstocks and approaching harvesting season.
 

Ammonium Chloride Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Asia

The ammonium chloride market in Asia experienced a notable price surge towards the latter half of the second quarter of 2024. This increase was largely driven by rising prices of essential feedstock materials, particularly ammonia and upstream natural gas. The elevated costs of these feedstock materials led to a rise in production rates, exerting an upward pressure on ammonium chloride prices. Further, the demand from the downstream fertilizer market also supported the upward momentum of the market with its consistently rising number of inquiries. This consistent demand, coupled with the increased cost of production, contributed to the overall upward trajectory in ammonium chloride prices in the Asian market.

In India, particularly, the ammonium chloride market showed optimistic sentiments only in the month of June. The Indian Meteorological Department forecasted a favorable monsoon, raising the expectations of the agriculture sector, a positive indicator for fertilizer sales. This expectation of good monsoon rains raised the demand for fertilizers, including ammonium chloride, from the downstream sectors.

Europe

In European markets, ammonium chloride prices bore a mixed trend primarily influenced by the uncertainties in weather patterns, scanty rainfall, and fluctuating sentiments of downstream fertilizer industries. Production, however, picked up its pace, surpassing the consumer procurement rates. This eventually led to the building up of inventories, forcing the traders to increase their discount offers and limit the growth of the market.

Towards the latter part of Q2’24, the number of offtakes, however, increased, raising optimism in the production and trading sector. However, they still had to mitigate the loss of export volumes due to a rise in container transport charges and longer lead times, resulting in an overall bearish tone of the ammonium chloride market.

North America

The North American ammonium chloride market displayed a bearish trend during the initial phase of the second quarter, but the market stabilized a little towards the end. Despite favorable weather conditions for crop planting, the market experienced declining prices. This decline was influenced by a surplus of domestically produced ammonium chloride and constrained demand from both domestic and international fertilizer markets.

However, the sales output of the chemical production sector remained above par, but this did not translate into increased demand for ammonium Chloride. But, by the end of the quarter, the favorable weather patterns, which included heavy rain and thunderstorms, resulted in excellent conditions for corn planting, boosting the overall momentum of the market. The farmers thus dropped their wait-and-see approach towards securing fertilizers, which led to the stabilization of supply-demand equilibria of the ammonium chloride market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Ammonium Chloride is expected to be driven by the rising sales figures of global fertilizer sector and inclining cost of production supported by rising prices of ammonia and natural gas.
 

Ammonium Chloride Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

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Asia

Ammonium chloride prices witnessed a consolidated price trajectory during the first quarter of the year 2023. Heavy inventory stocks were pressurizing the price trend downwards in China as humble demands from downstream metal and textile industries were not able to provide any significant support.

Driven by these heavy supplies and lowered demands, the ammonium chloride prices in the Chinese market wavered within a very limited range. The Indian market, on the other hand, was more balanced as the prices here also saw some increment. The rise in energy and oil prices here uplifted the upstream costs, which further added positive cost support. The feedstocks ammonia and hydrochloric acid also got costlier, adding to the manufacturing costs.

Europe

During the first three months of the year 2024, the European ammonium chloride market experienced a surge in prices. This growth was majorly driven by the inflation caused by the sudden upsurge in crude oil prices in the region as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated further.

Russia faced a terror attack in March, which further affected the oil output from the key OPEC+ country. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea curtailed the supply chains, which further complicated the supply situation. The market is expected to remain under pressure as the feedstock ammonia and hydrochloric acid prices are also on the incline. Overall, a positive market trajectory was experienced.

North America

In the American ammonium chloride market, the price trend was observed to be wavering, mostly tilted in the upward direction. The prices were heavily influenced by the surge in crude oil prices by the international market. Global supply chains implicated by the geopolitical tensions in the Gulf and Europe escalated the energy problems in the global markets.

A rising inflation rate also had a role to play in this fluctuating pattern of prices. All these factors pushed the price graph in a positive direction, while occasional dips in demand provided a reverse push sometimes. Overall, a varying price-performance was witnessed.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Ammonium Chloride markets are likely to remain soft in early 2024, with declining price support amid slowing global trade.
 

Ammonium Chloride Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

Asia

The historical data of ammonium chloride price trend showcased a sign of a strong fourth quarter of 2023, but the overall market dynamics of the Asian countries prevented the uptrend in the ammonium chloride prices. The trouble in the waters was caused by the lower rates of procurement from the downstream fertilizer industries. However, the cost of feedstock ammonia showcased a positive movement in this phase but was still not sufficient in keeping the prices in the upward direction.

Europe

After experiencing a significant inclination in the third quarter of 2023, the growth trajectory of the ammonium chloride market in the European countries slowed down in the subsequent quarter. The cost of production rose by a slight margin, given the improvement in the ammonia sector, but lukewarm rates of procurement from the downstream fertilizer and pharmaceutical industries troubled the traders. Another major factor that altered the trajectory of ammonium chloride price trend was the restrictions on exports by the Asian countries, especially China, which lowered the availability of raw materials in the region and raised the skepticism of the investors in this sector.

North America

The fourth quarter brought a decline in the cost of natural gas and crude oil by approximately 10% which had a significant impact on the ammonium chloride prices. Additionally, the rates of export declined due to surging issues of the Panama Canal and other exporting routes. Further, the downstream industries were also hesitant to place bulk orders due to excessive inventory levels, negatively affecting the orientation of ammonium chloride price trend.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Ammonium Chloride seem to be struggling with the tepid condition of the fertilizer market, but soon, with the plantation season, the demand for ammonium chloride is expected to increase.
 

Ammonium Chloride Price Trend for the July - September of 2023

Asia

The Asia Pacific market of ammonium chloride showed positive movement in the third quarter of 2023. The ammonium chloride price graph took up a northward trajectory on account of high rates of procurement from the fertilizer and agriculture sector and rocketing the cost of raw materials. In addition to this, the region struggled with constraints in the supply chains due to the sudden shutdown of some significant manufacturing units in China. This depleted the level of stockpiles and helped in the rise in the price trend of ammonium chloride.

Europe

The European market of ammonium chloride escalated with the help of positive momentum seen in the downstream industries. The rise in the ammonium chloride price trend was also a consequence of the increasing cost of feedstock materials and fluctuations in the supply chains. The derivatives of ammonium chloride incurred high demand not only from the domestic but also from overseas industries, which further supported the ammonium chloride price graph to incline.

North America

The effect of rising prices of ammonium chloride seen in Asia Pacific and European countries was followed in North America, too. Here, the consumers retained their confidence in the market and expanded their spending appetite. On the other hand, the escalating cost of feedstock materials, disrupted supply chains, and substantial increase in the demand from the international end-users of industries of ammonium chloride resulted in the growth of ammonium chloride price trend.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Ammonium chloride is estimated to reap the benefits of growing demand and a positive outlook for the global markets.
 

Ammonium Chloride Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Ammonium chloride observed mixed price trend throughout the first half of 2023. The market had surplus supplies and sluggish demands, but few offtakes from the downstream agricultural sector positively contradicted otherwise negative trend. The ammonium chloride prices started with a spot price of about 1157 RMB/MT in January and went to around 627 RMB/MT in May’23. The bearish market sentiments amidst overstocked inventories did not let the price trend recover.

Europe

The price trend for ammonium chloride exhibited fluctuating patterns in the European market. There were some occasional demands from the downstream industries. But the drowning feedstock costs coupled with reduced freight and energy prices amidst limited trade activities pulled the market prices down. So, overall, Ammonium Chloride prices had an oscillated downward run throughout the first half of 2023.

North America

The North American market also behaved in unison with the global market. After being somewhat stable in the initial months of quarter one, Ammonium Chloride prices dropped exponentially. So, overall declining price trend were observed. Price dips were mostly related to the downgraded production and upstream costs as dipping feedstock and energy prices got coupled with excess supplies. Overall, market sentiments were very dull.

Analyst Insight

According to the Procurement Resource, the Ammonium Chloride market is highly unlikely to recover in the coming quarter as a substantial rise in downstream demands is required for a rebound.

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