Ammonia Price Trend and Forecast

Ammonia Regional Price Overview

Get comprehensive insights into the Ammonia market, with a focused analysis of the Ammonia price trend across Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa.

 

Ammonia Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

Product	Category	Region	Price	Time Period
Ammonia	Agriculture, Farming and Commodity	China	575 USD/MT	July’24
Ammonia	Agriculture, Farming and Commodity	China	536 USD/MT	September'24

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Asia

In the Chinese market, the prices of ammonia were volatile during the third quarter of 2024. The quarterly price pattern showcased more declines than inclines. The market sentiments were generally weak in all the major markets, especially India and China. The primary demand for ammonia comes from the fertilizer sector, but agricultural demand entered off-season in the said quarter. In addition to this, the industrial demand for ammonia also remained rigid.
 

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Demands were not very supportive in the previous quarter as well, this resulted in the accumulation of stocks in inventories. And the gap between supply and demand outlooks widened even more resulting in a downfall of prices. Despite the rise in upstream natural gas prices, excess supply offset its effect on market prices. The monthly average prices in the Chinese market went from about 575 USD/MT in July’24 to around 536 USD/MT in September of 2024. Overall, a dull market performance was experienced for ammonia during Q3’24.

Europe

The European ammonia market showed a fluctuating trend during the third quarter of 2024. At the beginning of the quarter, the market was still struggling with dull demands amidst stable supplies, however, as the quarter progressed the prices started stabilizing in the European markets. Ammonia prices were influenced by ongoing export restrictions and trade diversions, particularly from Russia, which has impacted global supply. However, Europe was able to substitute Russian ammonia imports with supplies from alternative sources, such as Egypt.

Despite the challenges posed by sanctions on Belarus, exports from both Belarus and Russia have remained stronger than expected, with Belarus increasing shipments to China. This trade redirection, alongside a more stable production environment, has contributed to a relatively stable pricing trend for ammonia in the said quarter. In July 2024 Germany awarded a tender, to UAE-based Fertiglobe for the purchase of at least 259,000 metric tons of green ammonia from Egypt, starting next year marking a significant step in the country's decarbonization efforts and expansion of green hydrogen usage.

North America

Following the trend of the previous quarter, ammonia prices showcased a volatile trend in the American market during Q3’24. The primary demand for ammonia comes from the fertilizer market, which is strongly affected by seasonal cycles. In contrast, the upstream manufacturing costs tend to be more influenced by broader energy market dynamics. Therefore, the downward pressure on prices of fertilizers from falling demands was slightly balanced out with the inclining energy and natural gas prices which helped to stabilize the price of ammonia in the North American market. Range bound fluctuations were witnessed in the American ammonia market during the said peirod.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, ammonia prices are expected to show a fluctuating trend influenced by the fluctuations in the upstream natural gas prices and downstream demand from the agricultural sector.
 

Ammonia Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Asia

In the Chinese market, ammonia prices registered a continuous decline throughout the second quarter of 2024, following a period of price stagnation. A lack of new inquiries from the international market led to a wait-and-see approach among market participants, fueling the price reductions of ammonia.

This sentiment was also driven by ongoing market inactivity and low procurement enthusiasm despite the imminent planting season, a period typically characterized by rising demand. Additionally, reduced demand for various downstream derivatives such as urea, acrylonitrile, and amino acids further pressured ammonia prices. These derivatives, important for agricultural and chemical sectors, saw lower consumption rates, escalating the downward trend in the ammonia market.

Europe

The European ammonia market performed no differently from the rest of the globe as the prices here, too, traced a southwards trend. The trend was influenced by the sluggish demand from the agricultural sector and other key markets. Disruption of the exporting routes amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas crisis, elevation in freight charges due to rising instances of Houthi attacks on shipments, and inclination in cargo shipment charges also shared a fair percentage in keeping the ammonia prices downward.

On the other hand, the manufacturing activities worked at their peak efficiency and were fueled by the investor's optimism. However, the weak demand for the commodity imbalanced the supply-demand equilibria and eventually only led to the rise in the stockpiles, intensifying the concerns of the traders.

North America

In North America, the anhydrous ammonia market continued its downward trend into the first week of June. The primary factor behind the price decline was reduced purchasing activity from key downstream fertilizer markets. This reduction in demand occurred despite the ongoing planting season for major crops such as rice, barley, and corn.

Extreme heat waves across the region disrupted planting operations, leading to a softer market for anhydrous ammonia. Additionally, ammonia manufacturing units were operating at healthy rates, ensuring a stable supply. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was revised higher in May, reflecting improved business confidence and positive sector expectations, contributing to stable ammonia production levels. Furthermore, an increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for nitrogenous fertilizer manufacturing indicated strong demand and favorable market conditions, although this did not immediately translate into higher ammonia prices.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Ammonia is expected to improve with the advent of the new planting season and improvement in the industrial activities of downstream commodities.
 

Ammonia Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Product	Category	Region	Price	Time Period
Ammonia	Agriculture, Farming and Commodity	India	435 USD/MT	January’24
Ammonia	Agriculture, Farming and Commodity	India	436 USD/MT	March’24
Ammonia	Agriculture, Farming and Commodity	China	446 USD/MT	March’24

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Asia

Ammonia prices in the Asian market were observed to be oscillating within confined limits during the first quarter of the year 2024. The inventories were already sufficiently stocked and the downstream demands from the agricultural and fertilizer sectors were also very humble. Because of these dull demands the monthly average prices in the Indian market first fell from January to February. Further, as the sowing season arrived the market situation changed; the price graph shifted upward again.

In the Indian market, the ammonia prices averaged at around 435 USD/MT in January '24 and then, following a confined trajectory, went to about 436 USD/MT in March '24. A similar trajectory was seen in the Chinese ammonia market as well. Some cost support came from the rising upstream rates after a rise in energy prices in the global market. Overall, a very mixed price pattern was witnessed in Q1'24.

Europe

In Q1'24, the European ammonia market experienced a downward trend, continuing from the end of 2023. Production costs dropped, affecting the market in Western Europe and the Baltic region. February saw subdued demand and lower natural gas prices, reducing production costs further.

Despite this, Europe remained reliant on imports as many producers held off on increasing European production. The market is expected to remain under pressure, but the approaching spring application season could lead to increased demand. The geopolitical situation in the Red Sea has also impacted the market, with Middle Eastern producers facing logistical challenges.

North America

In the USA, the ammonia market has been poised for limited demand in Q1 2024, influenced by a robust fall application season, notably in the corn belt states like Illinois and Iowa, where record delivery volumes have been noted. This trend is expected to have curbed initial interest in ammonia purchases for the spring, potentially leading to a dynamic where farmers have bought only what they need just before planting. A similar purchasing pattern to the last spring season was noticed. Suppliers kept on reducing prices in order to promote purchases. Because of this, both slightly upward and downward movements were observed in the American ammonia market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Ammonia markets are anticipated to remain soft in early 2024, with declining price support amid slowing spot trade.
 

Ammonia Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

Product	Category	Region	Price	Time Period
Ammonia	Agriculture, Farming and Commodity	India	480 USD/MT	December’23
Ammonia	Agriculture, Farming and Commodity	China	516 USD/MT	November’23

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Asia

The production of ammonia in many Asian countries has taken a green route as the field has gained enormous interest from investors. The prices of ammonia in the fourth quarter thus rose consistently but registered some month-on-month fluctuations.

The manufacturing units in Saudi Arabia registered a delay in their operation, which depleted the inventory levels and helped in the rise in the Ammonia Price trend. In the Chinese domestic market, ammonia prices averaged around 516 USD/MT in November’23, while ammonia prices averaged around 480 USD/MT (CFR, India) in December’23 in the Indian domestic market.

Europe

For the European markets, adverse weather conditions, such as heavy rainfall, disrupted the natural plantation cycle during the later months of the quarter, and thus, after struggling to maintain its momentum, the prices of ammonia declined during the end of the month. The downstream industries, especially the fall of the fertilizer sector, also seemed to have triggered a food inflation war in the European countries, which in turn had an adverse effect on ammonia prices.

North America

The supply sector crunch caused by the disruption of the Panama Canal route reduced the number of exports from the nation drastically and thus caused the level of inventories to rise in the fourth quarter of 2023. Additionally, the pessimistic approach adopted by the consumer sector seen in the European countries was also followed in this region. The region inspected that the demand season of ammonia from the fertilizer industries has peaked and thus did not show any movement during this time, leading to the downfall in the prices at last.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Ammonia will soon get their momentum as the planting seasons in different parts of the world will approach.
 

Ammonia Price Trend for the July - September of 2023

Asia

The derivatives of ammonia witnessed a surge in their demand from the domestic and international markets, which resulted in a hike in the Ammonia Price trend. The market sentiments dwindled with the poor performance of the supply chains while the demand remained strong, broadening the gap between demand and supply. Along with this crunch in supply chains, production activities were also affected by the sudden closure of some production plants, depleting the level of inventories and eventually causing the ammonia prices to increase by almost 17% in China.

Europe

The positive outlook of ammonia and its derivatives demand in the European countries proved beneficial for the ammonia price graph. The ammonia price analysis of the third quarter was also affected by the disturbance in the production rates and availability of natural gas. In addition to this, the cost of raw materials, the influx of expensive imports, and weak performance of the European currencies combined resulted in the northward movement of Ammonia Price trend.

North America

The reduced output of the agricultural sector in view of the drought-like condition in North America somehow negatively affected the demand scenario of ammonia, but restocking activities of the fertilizer traders, along with only moderate production, gave the ammonia prices its required boost.

In the later phase of this quarter, the stable demand for ammonia and its derivatives, along with improving production rates, gave the ammonia market an overall optimistic outlook.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Ammonia is estimated to witness a consistent incline with the support of increasing cost of feedstock materials and depleting inventory levels.
 

Ammonia Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

The ammonia market in the Asia-Pacific region remained bearish as the prices declined in the said period. The region witnessed low demand from the downstream industries, and as a result, the prices declined from around 643 USD/MT in January to 409 USD/MT in June’23 in the Chinese domestic market. The fall in the prices was gradual in the first quarter but became steep in the second quarter. The downstream fertilizer industry witnessed an excess availability of nitrogen-based fertilizers and thus reduced their offtakes, aiding the falling trajectory of ammonia prices in the region.

Europe

In Europe, the price trend for Ammonia registered a downward trajectory, given the continuous fall in natural gas prices. Furthermore, the feeble demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers to ample availability further affected ammonia prices.

In addition, the whole European region suffered from weak market sentiments, and a reduced number of offtakes from the downstream industries combinedly kept the price trend of Ammonia in the negative zone. The prices of Black Sea ammonia averaged around 300-310 USD/MT FOB in April’23, while Northwest Europe averaged around 390-430 USD/MT CFR in April’23.

North America

The North American region was not much different from its European and Asian counterparts. Ammonia prices dipped in the said period as the demand from local and international buyers declined significantly.

The price trend also suffered from the rise in the inflow of imports with the opening of ports leading to the disruption in the supply-demand dynamics of the region. Further, the demand from the fertilizer industry affected the pricing fundamentals. The fertilizer prices continued to fall in the first half of 2023, given the downward pressure on grain, energy, and other commodities. The ammonia prices averaged around 500-550 USD/MT FOB Tampa at the beginning of May and end of April period.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for Ammonia are likely to decline in the upcoming months. The weak demand from the fertilizer industry and rising uncertainties in the costs of natural gas are expected to fluctuate the price trend of Ammonia.
 

Ammonia Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

The prices of ammonia fell through the said period owing to the relaxed upstream costs. The prices and supply of coal stabilized after reaching peaks in the first half of the year. With the decrease in the feedstock prices, the operating rates soared leading to stockpiling of products in the market.

The muted demands from the market, especially the fertilizer industry, further crashed the prices in the market. Also, the power rationing by the Chinese government deeply impacted the industrial economy. In India, the ammonia prices were bleak owing to weak demand and abundant supply. The prices of ammonia went from 1156 USD/MT (CFR India) (approx..) in September to 870 USD/MT (CFR India) in December’22.

Europe

The price trend for ammonia in Q3 were on the higher end of the scale in the European region owing to the soaring prices of crude oil. The European embargo on Russian oil exports caused high-cost inflation in Europe. Many manufacturers such as BASF shut down their ammonia production units because of the high operating costs and low margins. However, the price trend witnessed an oscillating pattern in the fourth quarter. Soon the high prices led to demand destruction as the purchasing power of the people was limited owing to the hike in interest rates by the central banks worldwide.

North America

The prices of ammonia fell in the Us domestic market owing to the dwindling demand from the downstream sectors. Despite the lowered costs of feedstocks and operating costs the supply and prices remained low due to the cautious buying activity of the buyers amid the interest hikes and economic slowdown.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices of ammonia are likely to stay towards the lower end of the scale given the present pricing fundamentals. Though the demand is returning; the overflowing stockpiles and weakened industrial activities will control the ammonia pricing.
 

Ammonia Price Trend For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

Due to the restrictions by China on exports of the fertilizer to meet its domestic demands, the prices soared globally. Coupled with the complex geopolitical arrangements, they hit a record-breaking high.

However, in the current quarter, the prices began to fall due to strong resistance from the buyers to purchase at these higher dictated prices.

Europe

Due to the rising natural gas price in Europe, the factories were forced to cut down their production due to the ongoing confrontations, sanctions, and supply chain disruptions causing the price to rise. The reluctance of the buyers to buy at such high costs and low market sentiment caused the fertilizer’s prices to plunge.

The Baltic ammonia averaged 919-988 USD/MT, while the Black Sea ammonia averaged 938-960 USD/MT FOB. The price remained strong despite this slight plunge compared with the last quarter. The price trend for the fertilizer will tend to remain uncertain this year due to volatility in the European market.

North America

Despite the growing prices of fertilizers, a dip was recorded in the current price of ammonia.

The June spot price of Tampa (Florida) ammonia was 1000 USD/MT, 30% less than the 1425 USD/MT recorded in May 2022. This dip in the market was due to buyers balking because of the record high prices in the market. Regardless, ammonia prices are overall 87% higher as compared to the previous year owing to the uncertainties in its supply and market demands.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, ammonia prices are expected to decline in the coming quarter. With the easing up of supply and prices of upstream coal and enhanced production rates, product inventories will increase. Given the currently muted offtakes, the prices are likely to fall.
 

Ammonia Price Trend For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

Shandong liquid ammonia market stopped increasing and steadied on March 28, and pricing was unchanged from the previous weekend at 5000 RMB/MT. There being no inventory pressure in the region, products were sparse, and downstream regular procurement was the primary source of supply.

The prices of most big factories remained unchanged in March, and the high costs had influenced some demand, but ammonia supply in the region remained limited. The failure of liquid ammonia production was caused by the conversion of some ammonia firms to urea, further maintaining the high costs. During the first quarter of 2022, supply and demand were evenly balanced.

Europe

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the shutdown of the Black Sea Yuzhny port in February resulted in the loss of Russian exports, which generally account for roughly 4.5 MMT or 20% of global seaborne trade yearly. Sanctions against a number of Russian billionaires linked to fertiliser manufacture shut off much of the supplies from Baltic Sea firms such as EuroChem and Uralchem.

Fertilizer major Yara halted ammonia production at its locations in Ferrara, Italy, and Le Havre, France, on March 9, citing record high natural gas prices in Europe. After completing a series of industry-reported deals, including a record high settlement price of the monthly CFR Tampa contract at 1,625 USD/MT, the business stated that it was resuming ammonia production at the two sites.
 

Ammonia Price Trend For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

Overall, the market in Asia was optimistic, with robust demand in India to fulfil their needs throughout the rabi crop season, while the outlook for Chinese ammonia in the local spot market remained bullish, thanks to increasing natural gas and coal prices.

Furthermore, the influence of Chinese authorities' dual-control energy consumption restrictions to decrease carbon emissions and limit power use prevailed in the fourth quarter of 2021. As a result, some ammonia factories had to reduce their output, causing China's government to outright restrict downstream urea shipments to the foreign market.

Europe

The rise in ammonia prices since the summer months were mostly ascribed to the rise in natural gas costs. Following a rise in the price of natural gas used in the manufacturing process, many companies lowered ammonia production at various factories in Europe from September to November, reducing the overall production in the region.

Ammonia prices in Europe were the highest in the world as of Dec. 15, at 1,120 USD/MT CFR Northwest Europe while FOB Black Sea, a major source of ammonia for Europe, was 1,055 USD/MT (up 49%). The strong pricing for both ammonia and natural gas feedstock in Europe prompted European customers to search for available spot cargoes in other key ammonia production hubs around the world, such as the Caribbean and the Middle East, causing prices to rise globally.

North America

As a result of Hurricane Ida, several US Gulf nitrogen plants remained offline in October, causing the production to halt. Ammonia prices surged in the Midwest, with Koch declaring new levels as high as 1,100 USD/MT FOB at its Corn Belt terminals and plants; a near two-fold increase over prices of 650 to 680 USD/MT in the Midwest recorded at the end of September. CF and other producers and sellers in the region followed Koch's lead, with CF setting a new price of 1,200 USD/MT FOB for overpull delivery amounts in the Northern Plains and Iowa.
 

Ammonia Price Trend For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

Per ton price of liquid ammonia in Shandong rose from around 3,200 RMB at the start of the year to 5,300 RMB in mid-October, a 65% increase. It surpassed a ten-year high. Ammonia prices dropped to around 4,200 RMB/MT in the last two months of the year, with an overall increase of over 35% for the year. The main reason was that as the domestic epidemic continued to ease, the domestic economy recovered quickly, and its demand grew steadily under the favourable national policy to support the agricultural economy.

Europe

In early 2021, domestic agrochemicals firms in Europe had a strong demand for the compound, but supply was inconsistent. Due to high demand and limited availability, dealers were compelled to pay premium prices for it. Later in the year, demand from the nitrogen-based fertilisers sector remained strong enough to maintain the overall price trend.

Russian manufacturers' output remained at an all-time high, owing to strong regional and local demand in the fertiliser sector. Furthermore, during early April, the Suez Canal blockade had an impact on ammonia’s regional prices and its downstream derivatives, as supply between Asia and Europe was disrupted for a week.

As the European natural gas prices witnessed a sharp increase in early September, operations of ammonia plants in Europe became increasingly difficult. As a result, BASF reduced its production at its factories in Antwerp, Belgium, and Ludwigshafen, Germany. Similarly, Yara reduced its European production capacity by roughly 40%, including ongoing maintenance optimization. As a result, ammonia prices in Europe continued to grow sharply by roughly 300 USD/MT since January 2021. In September, CFR Hamburg prices were 710 USD/MT in Germany.

North America

In June 2020, anhydrous ammonia prices in the United States dipped to 226.50 USD/MT before rapidly rising to 432.50 USD/MT in February 2021. Anhydrous ammonia prices jumped 34% to 580 USD/MT in March 2021. Prices have continuously risen since then, reaching 1,022.50 USD/MT in October 2021, the highest level since 2008.

Ammonia price ncrease is often linked with natural gas prices. However, natural gas accounted for only 15% of the increase in its price in October. When this increase was subtracted, it was found that ammonia prices followed the trend of corn prices. Corn is a major user of fertilizers, with nitrogen accounting for more than 50% of the cost.

Latin America

Fertilizer production in Mexico fell 17.6% in the first quarter of 2021, from 0.62 MT in January-March 2020 to 0.51 MT in March 2021, but apparent consumption increased by 3.8% to 1.59 MT at the same time. In March 2021, ammonia prices in Culiacán and Navolato had increased by about 20% in only one month, and by nearly 40% from January to March, reaching market highs of up to 14,900 MXN/MT.

The increase in price was attributed to factors such as reduced production. At least five factories, including three owned by Norway's Yara were shut down due to increasing natural gas prices, removing a total of 300,000 tonnes of product each month. Alongside, strong demand from fertiliser and other chemical product manufacturers, such as pharmaceuticals and cleaning products, reflected a strong rebound in the prices, forcing traders to pay premiums to ensure cash shipments due to sanitary measures imposed by Covid-19.
 

Ammonia Price Trend For the Year 2020

Asia

In 2020, the average market price of synthetic ammonia in China's key producing provinces was 2,850 RMB/MT, down 7.32% year on year. With the recovery of natural gas supplies and the impact of public health incidents, supply and demand in the liquid ammonia market were both weak in the first half of 2020, resulting in price volatility.

Later in the year, fertiliser was utilised for spring ploughing, agricultural demand surged, and prices began to rebound. Furthermore, local supply expanded dramatically as a result of the frequent shutdown of urea facilities in some large factories in the first half of the year. Alongside, the ending of spring season reduced fertilizer supply, dropping the prices further.

After a slight drop in the fourth quarter, the synthetic ammonia market continued to rise. The supply of commodities in Shanxi and other markets increasingly tightened due to atmospheric control and other factors, followed by the deletion of backward production capacity such as fixed beds in Henan, which was mostly executed by the end of December and contributed to the price increase. Recent market tensions have been exacerbated by factors such as power outages and rising coal prices.

Europe

The European business was seen struggling with low sales as coronavirus infections wreaked havoc on industrial and agricultural activities. Scheduled turnarounds and unanticipated outages hampered exports, resulting in a drop in its shipments from the Black Sea and Baltic.

In September, certain Russian ammonia tankers were booked for South Korea as a more cost-effective alternative to shipping cargo from Trinidad. In July, Russia's total production of the compound reached a new high on a year-over-year basis, with FOB ammonia prices hovering at 180-190 USD/MT.

North America

Hurricanes and tropical storms prompted turnarounds at many chemicals and fertiliser plants in 2020. Three Trinidad producers temporarily shut down output in late September, including a 500,000 tons-per-year export-oriented Trinidad Nitrogen Company Limited (Tringen) plant in Point Lisas.

Due to the unexpected drop in regional prices, Nutrien was the first to shut down portion of its output. While prices improved significantly in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Russia during mid-2020, the supplies in the Americas remained substantially discounted. Spot prices were estimated to be between 170-180 USD/MT FOB US Gulf.

Latin America

In early March, the price in Mexico was estimated to be approximately 6,560 MXN/MT. During the pre-planting of corn in the months of October and November, the price remained stable at an average of 10,700 MXN/MT while it dropped by 10% during the peak of planting in December, with the per tonne price being more or less 9,800 pesos.

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