Barley Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Barley in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Barley Price Trend for the H2 of 2022

Asia

The price trends for barley stabilized as compared to the peak levels in the second quarter but were still high compared to the previous year. The prices kept firm owing to the rise in feed demand and prices. The upcoming dry season and the ever-increasing demand from the beverage industry for malt drinks further added to the barley prices. Towards the end of said period, the barley prices averaged 324 USD/MT (Contract FD India) (approx..) in the Indian domestic market.

Europe

The barley prices kept afloat in the EU market despite the economic downturn unleashed owing to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The prices after reaching their peak in May 2022 fell drastically due to the negative market sentiment and expensive sourcing/logistics. However, as the situation stabilized, and demand rebounded, the barley prices rose and exhibited a healthy trend. The price averaged 280 Euro/MT towards the end of said period.

North America

The barley prices averaged around 7.84 USD/Bsh towards the end of the said period in the US domestic market. The price rise was in line with the healthy demand from the beverage and feed sector providing the needed cost support from the demand side, thus stabilizing the market prices for barley.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of barley will continue to remain firm in the coming months. As the international situation stabilizes and transport/trade improves, the positive effects will be passed on to barley prices.

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

In line with the global trends, barley prices increased in the Asian arena. To stabilize the domestic market, many Asian governments announced temporary bans on exports. The cost of Chinese barley was recorded around 0.44-1.52 USD/kg or 440.27 USD/MT in Shanghai and Beijing.

Europe

The continuing Russia and Ukraine conflict has led to an economic meltdown worldwide. The repercussions of this severe financial backlash have ravaged the global economy causing runaway inflation and demand destruction paradox in Europe. According to FAO, the food and feed prices have risen 8% and 20%, respectively.

Since Russia and Ukraine together account for 19% of the world’s barley supply, the price in Europe has surged around 65% compared to the previous year. With Ukraine closing its ports and retaliatory sanctions against Russia, the price trends for the crop tipped towards the higher side. As of May 2022, per ton price of barley in Europe averaged 389 EUR, recording a 77.1% year-on-year change.

North America

In the United States, around 2/3 of the barley produced is used for malt production and the remainder in feed. The beer companies are on tenterhooks because of the inflated barley prices and continuous supply disruptions owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

With the increase in the input costs, extreme pressure is put on the margin for manufacturers. The price averaged  0.3-0.29 USD/kg or 302.31 USD/MT in New York and Washington.

For the First Quarter of 2022

North America

As global supplies remain limited, barley prices were following wheat and maize prices. Omicron, as well as regulatory regulations, were nevertheless keeping a close eye on malting barley demand. Prices were 0.28 USD/kg during Q1 of 2022. The price in Ontario was 354 USD/MT in January 2022. Ontario's price of the grain climbed by 2.84% annually from 263 USD/MT in February 2021 to 354 USD/MT in January 2022.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

Even in the final quarter of 2021, China was making large purchases of French and Ukrainian barley as the surging prices of feed grains came down a bit. The country was also reported to making forward purchases of harvest barley for the upcoming year of 2022 from France and Ukraine. Some four vessels of the grain were booked for shipment from France while up to 10 cargoes were to be imported from Ukraine.

Europe

Europe too faced the problems of global barley shortage due to crop damage from rains in several region which led to a cut down in crop estimates in the final quarter of 2021.

North America

In North America, barley prices increased following dry weather scorched fields in major barley producing areas. In Canada, the output shrunk to its lowest since 1968 reducing by 34% whereas America witnessed lowest crop harvest since 1934. As the demand for beer increased, so did the demand for good-quality barley which drove up the prices in Canada to 9 Canadian Dollars per bushel.

For First, Second and Third Quarter of 2021

Asia

In 2021, China continued to import heavily from Europe and Canada after imposing 80.5% tariffs on barley imports from Australia following diplomatic disputes with Canberra. France and Ukraine were the major exporters of the grain to China while a significant amount of the grain from Canadia had been booked for 2021 by the country to feed the large population as it recovered from the pandemic which increased the prices unusually in the region.

Europe

In Europe, the grain’s harvest quality varied from country to country as a lot of crops were subjected to adverse weather conditions in 2021. Denmark was one of the few regions to report a good harvest.

North America

In North America, severe drought impacted several food grain crops including barley. The production in US dropped from 3.5 MMT to 2.3 MMT. In Canada, the production was as low as 6.5 MMT against an estimated value of 12.5 MMT.

For the Year 2020

Asia

In India, barley prices in the Jaipur market were trading at 1367 INR/quintal in October 2020 and was expected to go lower due to weak demand amid high supplies. The beer market had been affected by the lockdowns as restaurants, bars and alcohol shops were shut which brought down the prices by 20% in the second quarter of 2020.

Distilleries, breweries and malting units were running at 35% capacity during this period which brought down the demand and barley prices in the region. In 2020, China imported the grain heavily from Ukraine after it shifted supplies from Russia and Australia. In the 2020-21 period, China imported up to 2.8 MT from Ukraine as a result of a considerable increase in local food consumption as the country recovered from the pandemic towards the end of the year.

Europe

Barley prices were gradually increasing worldwide as demand increased for the food grain. France was a major exporter in the EU followed by Ukraine. The major export region was China along with other Asian countries like Thailand and Turkey and parts of North Africa.

North America

Production in the US declined slightly owing to less demand which led to a decline in prices. The average seasonal price of the grain in the region was assessed at around 4.55 USD per bushel. Even though lesser area was dedicated to its plantation and production, the exports increased by 1 million bushels from August to September 2020.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Barley. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.