Base Oil SN500 Price Trend and Forecast

Base Oil SN500 Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Base Oil SN500 in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Base Oil SN500 Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

Asia

Base oil SN500 prices in the Asian region demonstrated significant fluctuations throughout Q3'24. The market initially maintained strength before experiencing a sharp decline, heavily influenced by reduced Chinese purchasing activity and their automotive sector's pivot toward EVs. While Middle Eastern tensions briefly sparked an upward price movement in August, this proved temporary.
 

Base Oil SN500 Price Chart

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The enhanced supply from non-OPEC+ countries created additional pressure on SN500 prices. September saw prices stabilize somewhat, though market fundamentals remained weak.

Europe

The European SN500 market reflected broader regional challenges throughout the quarter. The persistent tensions in both the Middle East and European regions significantly influenced market dynamics. While prices remained subdued for much of the quarter due to weak fundamentals, temporary spikes occurred during periods of heightened Middle Eastern tensions. Buyer caution, combined with softening demand and increased supply from alternative sources, maintained downward pressure on base oil SN500 prices throughout the period.

North America

Base oil SN500 market in North America started the quarter with stable pricing, supported by consistent domestic demand. However, this stability gave way to downward pressure as crude oil inventory levels rose, affecting all grades of base oils including SN500. The combination of enhanced global supplies and ongoing geopolitical tensions led buyers to adopt a more cautious approach, resulting in further price deterioration as the quarter progressed.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Base Oil SN500 is likely to continue their existing trajectory in the coming months given the current market dynamics. Regional supply-demand balances will likely play a crucial role in determining price movements, with transportation costs and geopolitical factors remaining significant market influences.
 

Base Oil SN500 Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Stay updated with the latest Base Oil SN500 prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
 

Asia

In China, the base oil SN500 market defied the volatility experienced by the crude oil market due to OPEC+ production cuts, bleak scenarios of global geopolitics, and oscillating demand. In the initial phase of the second quarter, the market was majorly influenced by the hopes of economic recovery and the energy crisis driven by Russia-Ukraine tensions. Although the prices of base oil SN500 remained stable in a range of approximately 918 USD/MT to 940 USD/MT in Asia, its growth momentum was challenged by an increase in Russia's seaborne crude exports.

Along with this, India reported a striking rise in its Saudi Arabian imports of base oil SN500. The fluctuating dynamics were further accelerated by the ease in the logistical issues. However, as the end of the quarter approached, consumer sentiments turned favorable, and the market gained a little upward momentum.

Europe

The European base oil SN500 market exhibited a gradual upward trend throughout Q2 2024. Initially, prices rose from April to May, driven by an optimistic demand outlook that countered the previous quarter's declines. As the quarter progressed, the price gains market gains became more visible in the pricing patterns of the commodity. Although, despite initial setbacks from OPEC's extension of output cuts and production reductions, the market rebounded strongly.

In this strong recovery, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East suggested potential disruptions in oil production and shipments played a significant role, prompting urgency among European buyers and fostering a positive pricing environment for base oil SN500.

North America

In North America, base oil SN500 prices in the U.S. remained relatively stable during the first two months of Q2 2024, influenced by positive economic indicators and a slight easing of Israel-Iran tensions. However, towards the end of the quarter, the market experienced a notable shift as U.S. crude oil inventories dropped below the five-year average for the period.

This decline in inventories, coupled with increased manufacturing activity and renewed consumer confidence, contributed to a more dynamic market, leading to a rise in base oil SN500 prices. Additionally, the crude oil prices also extended additional support to the base oil SN500 market in June, raising the overall momentum of the market and ending the quarter on a positive note.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Base Oil SN500 is estimated to incline with the rise the cost of crude oil amid the trade war initiated by substantial cuts in production activities by major producers.
 

Base Oil SN500 Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Stay updated with the latest Base Oil SN500 prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
 

Asia

In the initial phase of the first quarter, the base oil SN500 demand showcased a noticeable improvement as the optimistic outlook was driven by seasonal demand for lubricants. However, as the quarter progressed, the demand for the commodity evened out and led to the settlement of base oil SN 500 prices on an average of 898 USD/MT, reflective of the cautious buying and selling in China and the stabilization of Singapore’s export volumes.

In India also, as the quarter moved towards termination, the overseas competitors reduced their price quotation and thus, the Indian traders had to do the same in order to remain competitive. Moreover, the overall outlook of the market moved in a positive direction as the demand for the commodity moved northwards.

Europe

In Europe, initially, base oil SN500 prices struggled to maintain the momentum from previous quarters, showing a gradual decline in January and February. This downward trend was influenced by increasing sanctions on Russian imports and a shift in the consumer base towards alternative options amid supply chain constraints.

European producers also focused more on alternative fuels like diesel to sustain their profit margins. Further, Turkey turned to Russian suppliers, leveraging competitive pricing to gain a global market edge. However, towards the end of the quarter, Houthi attacks on shipments via the Red Sea route increased delivery times and stimulated overseas interest in the European base oil market, resulting in an incline in base oil SN 500 prices from around 863 USD/MT to 1016 USD/MT during the Q1 of 2024.

North America

The US base oil market saw stabilization during the first quarter of 2024 amid ongoing demand uncertainty and negotiations. Major players like ExxonMobil and Paulsboro announced price hikes, initially driving up base oil prices in the month of March from around 1923 USD/MT to 1983 USD/MT.

Rising crude oil prices, supply constraints from plant shutdowns, disruptions in shipping routes, and limited vessel space further influenced this upward trend. However, despite the nearing spring season, demand for base oil did not increase as anticipated, casting doubt on the sustainability of the proposed price hikes. Consequently, many suppliers adopted a cautious approach, delaying price adjustments until market conditions became favorable.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Base Oil SN500 is estimated to move northwards at a gradual pace in the adjacent quarters as the momentum is likely to be supported by slow, longer lead times and an incline in demand for the commodity.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Base Oil SN500. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.