- Bio-ethanol prices strengthened during Q1’26, with Asia and Europe supported by fuel-market uncertainty, while North America gained support from strong export movement and firm blending demand.
- Feedstock pressure came mainly from corn, sugar, cassava, fuel, and freight costs. The Strait of Hormuz disruption increased delivery risk and lifted transport costs for regional biofuel movements.
- Downstream demand was supported by gasoline blending, low-carbon fuel mandates, and fuel-security concerns. Chemical-sector buying stayed selective, but fuel-grade ethanol demand remained stronger.
Asia
Asian bio-ethanol prices moved upward in Q1’26 as Middle East tensions increased supply concerns and freight risk. Fuel-grade ethanol in Asia rose in early March, while industrial-grade ethanol also moved higher due to stronger logistics costs and delayed deliveries. The Philippines remained a key demand centre, with ethanol imports reported up 12.0% year-on-year as reported in the last quarter, supported by sustained E10 blending. Vietnam’s planned nationwide E10 rollout from June 2026 also supported regional buying sentiment.
Europe
European bio-ethanol prices were firm during Q1’26, supported by higher energy costs, fuel blending demand, and trade uncertainty. Ethanol demand stayed linked to road-fuel blending and low-carbon fuel compliance. The Middle East conflict raised crude and fuel-market volatility, which improved the relative support for biofuel blending economics. Freight and insurance costs also increased after Hormuz traffic disruptions, lifting landed-cost pressure for imported material and feedstock-linked flows.
North America
In Q1’26, North American bio-ethanol prices strengthened as export demand stayed strong. U.S. fuel ethanol exports reached 5,056 thousand barrels in January, 5,007 thousand barrels in February, and 5,194 thousand barrels in March, supporting producer margins. USDA data also showed Q1 2025/26 U.S. fuel ethanol exports were 5.0% higher year-on-year, while production rose 2.0%. Corn use for ethanol through January was broadly stable, so the main price support came from exports, blending demand, and energy-market volatility.