Calcium Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend and Forecast

Calcium Ammonium Nitrate Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Calcium Ammonium Nitrate in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Calcium Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

Asia

In the Asian markets, the price trend for calcium ammonium nitrate was largely optimistic throughout the first half of 2024. In China, the recovery from the COVID-19 economic downturn progressed slowly, but efforts to boost manufacturing led to an increase in downstream demand. Sectors like tires, automotive, and industrial manufacturing, including belts and other components, demonstrated robust demand, prompting suppliers to raise prices. Similarly, in India, Calcium Ammonium Nitrate witnessed favorable price performance due to increased raw material costs and steady demand from the manufacturing sector.
 

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In the second quarter, the Asian market experienced a sharp surge in PBR prices. Despite a slowdown in electric vehicle production due to delays in government subsidies, strong downstream demand from the automotive sector and higher sales of high-value-added products such as larger tires helped maintain a positive market trend. Market participants also actively accumulated inventories to meet current demand, further supporting the upward trajectory in prices. This bullish trend is expected to persist due to sustained demand and proactive inventory management by suppliers.

Europe

In Europe, the calcium ammonium nitrate market has continued to experience a downward price trend, largely driven by the high cost of inputs such as electricity and feedstock. European producers have faced significant challenges from elevated carbon costs and stringent envCalcium Ammonium Nitratemental regulations, which have increased production expenses. Additionally, the ongoing gas embargo by Russia has resulted in higher LNG prices, further escalating the cost of manufacturing calcium ammonium nitrate.

This cost pressure, coupled with reduced demand due to unfavorable economic conditions, has led to a continued decline in calcium ammonium nitrate prices. However, the drop in prices has been relatively slow, as supply constraints and high production costs have prevented a sharper decrease. The European market is also being influenced by increased competition from alternative sources, such as imports from Asia and Latin America, which offer more competitively priced products.

North America

In North America, the price trend for calcium ammonium nitrate has shown signs of stabilization in the latter half of 2024. The announcement of new production projects, such as the Yara and ATOME partnership to produce calcium ammonium nitrate in Paraguay, has created a more optimistic outlook for the region. This project is expected to boost domestic supply, reduce dependence on European imports, and potentially lower costs in the long term.

While North America continues to import a significant volume of calcium ammonium nitrate from Norway, the increasing focus on local production and the geopolitical push for supply chain independence are anticipated to moderate price fluctuations. The potential for stronger domestic supply and a shift away from reliance on European and Russian imports has created a more bullish sentiment in the market, although overall prices have not yet seen a significant decrease due to persistent supply chain issues and input costs.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Calcium Ammonium Nitrate is expected to exhibit a bearish momentum in the upcoming sessions. This anticipated price decrease is linked to ongoing inventory destocking due to lower demand from downstream markets and underperformance in economic activities, further influencing the market's demand.
 

Calcium Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

The market behavior of the Asian calcium ammonium nitrate industries was very convoluted during the last two quarters of 2023. The price trend behaved differently in both the third and the fourth quarters. Q3 began on a lighter note as the inventories were already stacked, and the calcium ammonium nitrate consumption was very lackluster from both domestic and international consumers.

So, despite a hike in the energy and oil prices during this time, the calcium ammonium nitrate prices wavered at the lower end in the Asian market; however, as the fourth quarter began, the production supplies with a higher manufacturing cost started entering the market circulation. Since the rise in energy prices had elevated the upstream rates for calcium ammonium nitrate, and the demands showed some improvement, the prices showed some improvement in the following quarter.

Europe

The European calcium ammonium nitrate markets witnessed the prices tottering at the lower levels for the majority of the said period. The said behavior was primarily influenced by the sluggishness of the feedstock industry. The fertilizer and oil industries also didn’t provide much substantial downstream support. So, with some occasional upticks, the calcium ammonium nitrate prices mostly wavered at the lower end of the curve in the European markets during H2’23.

North America

Contrary to global trends the calcium ammonium nitrate price trend behaved in a slightly better way in the American markets. The prices here were also observed to be following the feedstock costs in the region. However, after a long economic turmoil during the first half of the year, the industries in America finally started to normalize again, which prompted the industrial demands for calcium ammonium nitrate. Some temporary and short-lived dips in the price trend were there, but largely, the market sentiments remained positive for most period.

Analyst insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Calcium Ammonium Nitrate price trends are expected to continue to fluctuate going forward. The feedstock prices will be the key driver for the Calcium Ammonium Nitrate industry in the coming months.
 

Calcium Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Calcium Ammonium Nitrate observed mixed price trend in the first half of the year 2023. Prices were majorly influenced by the feedstock (Limestone and Ammonium Nitrate) costs and the demands from downstream fertilizer and chemical industries. In the Asian market, Calcium Ammonium Nitrate prices had a strong start in January 2023 as the industries started reopening in China after the Covid-19 lockdown was lifted.

Fresh demands gave the Calcium Ammonium Nitrate market some respite, so the prices remained on an inclining trajectory for most of the first quarter. But as the inventories started filling up with excess supplies and the demands didn’t pick up in the same manner, the prices again turned south and continued to decline for the rest of the said time period.

Europe

In the European region, the price trend for Calcium Ammonium Nitrate struggled throughout the first half of 2023. Given the high inflation, the upstream and production costs rose to unsustainable levels, and even when the prices started normalizing, the downstream markets could not improve. Cheap Asian imports also flooded the market amidst feeble demands. So, the market almost witnessed demand destruction. Overall, the Calcium Ammonium Nitrate prices remained tottering on the lower curve for most of the discussed time period.

North America

The North American Calcium Ammonium Nitrate market almost replicated the European Calcium Ammonium Nitrate market for H1 2023. Market sentiments were driven by dull demands as the upstream availability was ample because of high inventory levels and the availability of cheap imports. Still, the market exchanges remained very limited, catering to bearish market sentiments.

Analyst insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Calcium Ammonium Nitrate market is expected to continue similar trend in the upcoming months. The high stockpiles will be required to be cleared first in order to give a new direction to the Calcium Ammonium Nitrate market, and this will require discounted product access.
 

Calcium Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

The Asian Calcium Ammonium Nitrate market started H2 2022, with a downhill trend, after a robust high in H1’22. The reasons were lowered market demands and a fall in feedstock Ammonium Nitrate and limestone prices. As the raw material was available at lower costs the upstream production costs for Calcium Ammonium Nitrate got cut, and the feeble consumer demand didn’t support a price rise either. However, the price pattern became uncertain in later H2 2022 as CAN prices started wavering with various factors, mainly production costs, supply, and demand.

Europe

Europe is still reeling under high-rising inflation and supply curtailment because of the ongoing Russia – Ukraine conflict. The CAN prices soared in initial H2 2022 owing to supply disruptions. However, as China eased its lockdown restrictions cheap imports were available in the European market. The supply chains got functional again and the price trend for Calcium Ammonium Nitrate started normalizing again as the production costs started coming under control.

North America

In the North American market, the price trend for Calcium Ammonium Nitrate maintained an almost stagnant steady run. The supply constraints and feedstock constraints existed, but the demands from other international markets maintained the momentum. But as global situation especially in the Asian and European region eased, international demand subsided pushing the pushing the Calcium Ammonium Nitrate prices in later H2 2022.

Analyst Insight

According to the Procurement Resource, the price trend for Calcium Ammonium Nitrate are likely to register a mixed pattern in the coming months. Even if the Russian exports got access to several markets in the European region no simultaneous effect on the price will be seen Europe does not have good purchasing prospects given the current economic backlash.
 

Calcium Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend For the First Half of 2022

Asia

The fertilizer prices exploded globally owing to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. With Russia and Belarus being the significant exporters of fertilizers, retaliatory sanctions against them surged the fertilizers prices worldwide. The prices of feedstock ammonium nitrate surged in the Chinese domestic market, averaging 850 USD/MT  FOB Qingdao during the first quarter. However, the prices started strong during the second quarter but declined towards the end of June 2022.

This decline was due to the weak market sentiment owing to the cautious buying activities of buyers amid the growing speculation of a global recession. The prices of feedstock ammonium nitrate averaged 790 USD/MT in the second quarter. The price trend of calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN ) were in line with the oscillating price trend of its feedstock.

Europe

The prices of feedstock ammonium nitrate and calcium nitrate surged throughout the European market during the first half of the said year. With the soaring crude oil and natural gas prices, Yara ( one of the major fertilizer producers) temporarily cut nitrogen production in its plants in Italy and France, with both the plants churning out fertilizers at 45% capacity.

Also, Tukey, which majorly exports CAN to the UK, suspended its exports, thereby causing massive volatility in the market. The sanctions against exports from Russia and Ukraine worsened the already tight supplies. Hence, the prices of feedstock ammonium nitrate soared, averaging 964-972 USD/MT.

North America

In line with its European counterpart, CAN prices surged in the US domestic market during the first half of the said year. The inflated feedstock prices amid the heightened transportation cost and robust demand from the agricultural sector kept the CAN prices afloat in the market.

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