Rapeseed Oil Price Trend and Forecast

Rapeseed Oil Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Rapeseed Oil in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Rapeseed Oil Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Asia

In Q2'24, the price trend of rapeseed oil in China experienced a weak decline initially, followed by stabilization and a slight increase. In late April, domestic rapeseed prices dropped as traders sought to clear out old inventory amidst off-season demand. Despite initial weak market conditions, the new rapeseed crop began arriving in early May. The quality variations and poor early yields resulted in the cautious behavior of the consumer, oscillating the prices of rapeseed oil in May.
 

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However, a cold wave in Hubei reduced production volumes of rapeseed oil as refining and processing activities declined, providing some support for prices. The domestic market also saw an uplift post-May Day holiday due to the strong inclination of overseas players amid the ongoing competitive pricing of vegetable oils, which positively influenced the domestic oilseed market. Overall, the rapeseed oil market remained relatively stable during the second quarter of 2024.

Europe

During Q2'24, rapeseed oil prices in Europe surged due to the complex interplay of interconnected factors. The adverse weather conditions, particularly dry spells and ill effects of cold waves in key growing regions like northern France and Germany, declined the 2024 European rapeseed harvest, in turn drying the rapeseed oil inventories. This decline further escalated the concerns about the quality of yields, pressurizing the supply of rapeseed oil.

Concurrently, global supplies of other vegetable oils, such as palm oil, were constrained by environmental regulations, EUDR negotiations, and labor shortages in major producing countries like Indonesia and Malaysia, supporting an uptrend in the prices of rapeseed oil. Additionally, the growing demand for biofuels, driven by a global push for renewable energy, significantly increased the need for rapeseed oil as a key feedstock for biodiesel production. Therefore, these factors have collectively resulted in tight market conditions, pushing up rapeseed oil prices during the second quarter of 2024.

North America

In Q2'24, the price trend of rapeseed oil in the U.S. declined slightly due to higher supply projections. Although U.S. rapeseed or canola production was forecasted to decrease marginally due to a lower yield, larger imports from Canada reversed the market conditions. Therefore, this resulted in steady production of rapeseed oil production in the domestic markets, while imports are expected to reach a record high driven by strong domestic demand, particularly in the biofuel sector. However, despite the higher demand, the increased supply and higher ending stocks contribute to the slightly dim outlook of the market. Although, the market benefitted from the competitive pricing of the commodity around the world.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Rapeseed Oil is expected likely to continue its present stance given the reduction of inventories in major exporting nations and diversion of global consumer base towards other related commodities.
 

Rapeseed Oil Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

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Asia

Rapeseed oil prices observed a vacillating price trajectory during the first quarter of the year 2024. In the Indian market, continuing the depreciation of the previous quarter, the prices first fell in the first couple of months from January to February’24. However, as the other oilseeds got expensive the rapeseed oil prices also increased because of raised demand. In India, the prices averaged about 1005 USD/MT. Following a similar pattern, the Chinese market first depreciated by about 3% in the first half of the first quarter. However, the prices then inclined in the country again marginally in the second half of the quarter.

The monthly average prices went from around 1129 USD/MT in January’24 to about 1151 USD/MT in March’24. Major relaxation in the Asian market came from the increased rapeseed acreage output in India. The land acreage has risen by about 5% compared to the last year, and thus, the output is expected to reach about 12MT this year. However, as demand requests increased and shipping charges skyrocketed, these minimal rises were seen in the latter half of the quarter.

Europe

The European rapeseed market was primarily driven by the increased outputs that the major rapeseed-growing countries witnessed. As per USDA (US Department of Agriculture), the global rapeseed production rose by about 0.6 MT to 88.1 MT in 2023/24.

India, Russia, and Ukraine contributed the most to this increase in output. Production for Russia and Ukraine are up about 0.1 MT each. These outcomes eased the price pressure a little. However, logistic and transportation issues emerged as the biggest hurdles for offshore trade. Ocean freight was seeing various challenges that complicated international trade in the region. Overall, mixed market sentiments were witnessed in Q1’24.

North America

The market situation for rapeseed oil was not much different in the North American market than in the Asian and European markets. Even though Canada limited its export volumes because of increased domestic consumption, the global supplies were still modest. However, the geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainties in global trade somewhat trampled with the market trend. Overall, a lukewarm performance was witnessed during Q1’24.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Rapeseed Oil price trend will continue its prudent run in the coming months as well; market projections look optimistic going forward too.
 

Rapeseed Oil Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

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Asia

The rapeseed oil prices continued to plunge deeper in the Asian markets, following a similar trajectory as the previous quarter. The edible oil market, in general, was facing depreciation, and an increase in the export quantities from the Ukrainian markets tumbled the prices further down. The Chinese rapeseed oil market saw the prices going from around 1233 USD/MT (Spot FD) in October’23 to around 1162 USD/MT in December’23, registering a downfall of about 5% in the market trend.

Similarly, in the Indian rapeseed oil market, the prices went from about 1070 USD/MT in October’23 to about 1030 USD/MT in December’23, registering an approximate fall of about 3% in the last quarter of the year 2023. Overall, weakening market trend were witnessed by rapeseed oil during Q4’23.

Europe

The European rapeseed oil market also experienced similar slumping trend during the final quarter of the year 2023. Major exporting regions like Canada, Australia, and the EU (European Union) witnessed above-average harvests of rapeseed. Hence, owing to surplus exportable volumes, rapeseed oil prices wavered at the lower end in the European market, and it also influenced the global rapeseed oil market rates.

North America

The American rapeseed oil price trend also mirrored the sluggishness in the global rapeseed oil markets. Due to the relatively higher yields and milling processes, the inventories maintained excess product levels throughout the discussed span. Hence, the rapeseed oil prices were observed to be plummeting for the entire span of Q4’23.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Rapeseed Oil price trend will continue to fall in the coming months, given the oversaturated inventories and current volatilities in the downstream demands.
 

Rapeseed Oil Price Trend for the July - September of 2023

Asia

The rapeseed oil market in Asia continued to be in a slump in the third quarter of 2023 as well. The rapeseed oil market’s competition with other edible seed oils like soybean oil and sunflower oil was seen as one of the downward pushing factors for rapeseed oil price trend; however, the edible oil market, in general, has been on the plunging side during the said time. The overstocked inventories primarily forced the rapeseed oil price graph down.

Since the global edible oil supply chains recovered and improved significantly after the curbs caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it substantially subsided the upstream transportation and processing costs for rapeseed oil. Overall, both upstream and downstream factors contributed to the pulldown of rapeseed oil market trend. The average monthly rapeseed oil prices in the Chinese market dropped from about 1354 USD/MT at the beginning of the third quarter of 2023 to around 1289 USD/MT by the end of it. So, bearish market trend were witnessed.

Europe

The European rapeseed oil market, too, remained downward swinging during the three-month span of Q3’23. At one point, the rapeseed oil prices dipped even lower than the palm oil prices. Excessive oversupply of rapeseed oil from the producing regions caused the downturn in rapeseed oil prices in Europe. Overall, dull market sentiments were observed.

North America

The American price trend for rapeseed oil fluctuated more as compared to the other major global rapeseed oil markets. The first half of the quarter was more positive than the second. A temporary rise in downstream demands pushed the rapeseed oil market up initially; however, the supply glut again started dominating and pulled the market prices down again.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Rapeseed Oil prices are likely to continue wavering down in the coming months as well. As the inventories are still over-exhausted, it will take time to reduce the existing gap between rapeseed oil supply and demand dynamics.
 

Rapeseed Oil Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Rapeseed Oil prices exhibited bearish market sentiments throughout the first half of the year 2023. A depreciation of about 31% was observed within the first six months in the Chinese Rapeseed Oil market. The average spot prices went from about 1738 USD/MT in January’23 to around 1196 USD/MT in June’23.

This fall in prices was majorly attributed to the increased rapeseed harvest in the producing countries like Canada and Germany. Moreover, a long time has passed since the Russia and Ukraine war began, so the countries developed ways to work around it, and supply chain restrictions have also been solved. This led to a reduction in freight charges and upstream costs. All these factors contributed to reduced profit margins for Rapeseed Oil suppliers in Asia during the said period.

Europe

Russia’s nod to extend its Black Sea agreement with the UN, Turkey, and Ukraine till July’23 was the biggest influencing factor in the European price trend of Rapeseed Oil. Since the Ukrainian rapeseed had market access, the product rambled up in the already oversupplied market. Since the harvest was good this season, the prices mostly wavered at the lower end. However, an increase in other edible oils like sunflower and groundnut prices promoted Rapeseed Oil demands. The reverse turns were marginal. The general market momentum was depressing.

North America

The North American market almost replicated the global slowing trend for Rapeseed Oil. With excess supplies and lowered demands, the prices mostly tottered downhill. Some spikes were observed at the quarter shift, but the general trend was descending.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Rapeseed Oil price trend are likely to behave similarly for some time in the upcoming months. High inventory stocks will compel suppliers to continue with discounts.
 

Rapeseed Oil Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia Pacific

The Asian-Pacific rapeseed oil market was unstable in the said period. Initially, the prices saw a small incline due to the rise in demand from the domestic industries, but this trend was short-lived as the prices experienced a sharp decline in the subsequent months. In the fourth quarter, the prices again saw a similar surge in the initial months and then a steep decline in subsequent months. This decline is majorly due to the steep reduction in the imported volume of the oil.

Europe

The price trend of rapeseed oil remained volatile during the said period in the European domestic market. The prices were stable initially as the demand and food consumption increased in the area. However, due to the oversupply of the precious Black Sea sunflower oil in the domestic market, rapeseed oil prices plunged. This period also witnessed a decline in the demand from the downstream industries and high-level inventories which further contributed to the decrease in the prices.

North America

The North American region saw a declining trend as the supply of the product overpowered the demand. In the later months of the third quarter, a decline in the rapeseed growing area was observed, eventually affecting its yields. This situation positively supported the market, but the inventories remained on the high side.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, rapeseed oil prices are estimated to decrease in the upcoming months. The rise in inventories, the decline in the import volume of oil, and decreased demand from the end-user industries is expected to affect the market adversely.

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