- Global coking coal prices showed a mixed trend in Q1’26, weakening early due to soft steel output and improving later as supply risks and freight concerns increased after geopolitical disruptions.
- Feedstock dynamics remained balanced, with stable coal output but localized supply disruptions tightening availability in parts of Asia.
- Downstream demand remained subdued as global steel production declined, limiting procurement despite late-quarter recovery signals.
Asia
Coking coal prices in Asia followed a weak-to-firm trend in Q1’26, declining early due to sufficient mine supply and cautious steel mill buying, then recovering as supply tightened and freight risks increased. China’s coal mining and washing sector expanded steadily, while imports rose modestly by 1.3% year on year, indicating stable upstream availability and continued reliance on seaborne supply. However, downstream demand remained limited as global steel production fell, with total output at 147.3 million tonnes in January 2026, down 6.5% year-on-year, which reduced coking coal consumption. Late-quarter recovery was supported by safety checks and improved steel output.
Europe
Coking coal prices in Europe remained under pressure in Q1’26 due to weak steel production and reliance on imports. Steel demand stayed soft, with EU output trends reflecting broader global decline, reducing blast furnace activity and coking coal consumption. Import dependence exposed the region to higher freight and energy costs after the Strait of Hormuz disruption, as the route carries about one quarter of global seaborne oil trade, increasing logistics and input cost pressure. Despite this, weak downstream demand limited upward momentum.
North America
Coking coal prices in North America remained relatively stable in Q1’26, supported by export-linked demand but constrained by moderate domestic steel activity. U.S. coal exports reached 23.5 million short tons in Q4’25, indicating strong export positioning entering Q1’26, which supported sentiment. Domestic demand remained limited due to stable steel output and structural shifts toward electric arc furnace production. Indirect cost pressure from higher fuel and freight costs following geopolitical disruption influenced market conditions but did not significantly alter supply.