Coking Coal Price Trend and Forecast

Coking Coal Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Coking Coal in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Coking Coal Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

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Asia

Coking coal prices in China fell in the first half of 2024 due to weak demand from the property and infrastructure sectors (which are major consumers of steel) and steel mills in the absence of any significant government stimulus policies. An oversupply in the market, driven by increased exports from Australia, particularly after the rainy season in Queensland and a sharp rise in spot cargoes from a major Australian coal producer, further pressured prices.
 

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The monthly average prices in the Chinese coking coal market went from about 339 USD/MT in January’24 to around 284 USD/MT in June’24. Overall, the combination of weak demand, oversupply, and temporary market rebounds without substantial changes in market fundamentals led to a decline in coking coal prices in China in the first half of 2024.

Europe

The coking coal market in Europe was not any different than the Asian market during the said period. The prices were found to be declining in most of the European markets as well. Given Europe’s position as a significant importer of coking coal,  the domestic market was affected by the declining prices in Australia due to oversupply and decreased demand in Asia, potentially leading to price reductions and market adjustments in Europe.

North America

In the first half of 2024, the North American coal market experienced wavering trends driven by a combination of global and domestic factors. Coking coal prices in North America were influenced by broader global market dynamics, including weak demand from key steel-consuming countries like China and India, which led to a decline in global coking coal prices. The oversupply situation in the Australian market, coupled with subdued demand in Asia, put additional downward pressure on prices, indirectly affecting North American producers.

The shutdown of the Donkin coal mine in Canada due to safety issues added to regional supply constraints, though the mine was later permitted to resume production. Meanwhile, Sunrise Coal, a significant U.S. producer, announced layoffs amid declining demand and market uncertainty. Overall, the North American coal market in H1 2024 reflected the broader global oversupply and weak demand trends, leading to challenging conditions for both coking and thermal coal producers.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Coking Coal price trends are expected to depreciate even further as the demand trajectory doesn’t seem very supportive in the coming times.
 

Coking Coal Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

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Asia

In Asian countries, the coking coal prices inclined from an average of 253.18 USD/MT (Spot FD) in July’23 to 332.14 USD/MT in December’23. The market rose on the back of the rising scarcity of the product.

The market tensions further intensified due to the exponential demand for the commodity amid limited supply. The coal operators, however, were distressed by adverse weather conditions and disruptions caused by the unseasonal rainfall and floods. Additionally, the unpredictability of the production rates further caused an upset in the supply-demand equilibria, leading to an incline in the coking coal price trend.

Europe

During the third and fourth quarters of 2023, the coking coal price trend inclined owing to high downstream demand for electricity and heightened international procurement rates. However, the commodity supply was slow, widening the gap between the demand and supply sectors.

Another disparity came from logistical challenges and adverse weather conditions which supported the rise in the coking coal price trend. However, the growth rates of the prices slowed down in the fourth quarter as the downstream industries started utilizing natural and renewable sources of energy to reduce their dependency on coking coal and its derivatives.

North America

Primarily driven by the demand from the downstream industries and the rise in export rates, the North American coking coal market enjoyed an upward trend in its prices. However, this inclination in the market dynamics was short-lived and by the end of the third quarter, the price trend began its southwards trajectory.

The shifting sentiments of the consumers and the province of renewable sources of energy, along with the advent of government initiatives favoring the alternatives of traditional sources, caused a significant reduction in the procurement rates of coking coal and thus resulted in the decline in the coking coal price trend.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Coking Coal is estimated to drift as the shift in consumer preferences and the changing energy landscape might hinder the growth of the coking coal market.
 

Coking Coal Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Coking Coal is mined from the earth and is used in very energy-intensive processes like making fuel, coal, electricity, steel, cement, etc. The first half of the year 2023 witnessed a downturn in Coking Coal prices. Since both India and China had access to cheaper Russian oil, the oil was consumed more than coke, and the demands from the downstream sectors took a plunge. Since the markets were still struggling to revive after the lockdown was lifted, the Chinese manufacturing sector could not touch the pre-lockdown levels. Several other geopolitical tensions also had their part to play.

The average spot prices stood at around 360 USD/MT in the Chinese domestic market in Jan’23, which were reduced to about 240 USD/MT in June’23, registering an approximate depreciation of about 33%. Overall, feeble market sentiments were observed.

Europe

The European market witnessed a fluctuating price pattern for Coking Coal during H1’23. As the Russian supplies were heavily sanctioned, the imports rose from the Middle East and the USA. Due to high inflation, the downstream industries struggled to maintain production, and with halts in operation, the demand for Coking Coal saw a sharp decline in the region. After wavering a little in the first quarter, the Coking Coal prices tumbled in the second. Overall, bearish market sentiments were observed.

North America

The American Coking Coal market almost replicated the European market as inflation hit high in the US as well, two major US banks collapsed, and the interest rates flung high. So, with very limited demands from the consuming sectors, the prices declined throughout the discussed time period.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, fluctuations are expected further in the global Coking Coal markets, but as the manufacturing sector improves, the prices are expected to stabilize/improve.
 

Coking Coal Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

The coking coal prices exhibited diverse trend in the Asia-Pacific region. In China, the coking coal prices kept high in July and fell drastically considering the weak demand and cautious buying activity in the market. With the government announcing a ‘property guarantee policy’ anticipating a recovery in real estate, the demand from the steel and construction sector rebounded. Thus, the coking coal price trend stabilized in mid-August. The prices consolidated, however the willingness to purchase was still general.

In India, where most of the coking coal is largely imported the prices touched new highs in the third quarter. These high continued till the next quarter with little relief to the steel manufacturers. In Australia, the coking coal prices inclined as La Nina caused many problems with the Australian thermal coal supply and exports, thus causing shortages worldwide.

The price trend for coking coal stabilized in the fourth quarter as the supply chains stabilized. The high prices were being driven by temporary supply disruptions and with the trade normalisation along with higher production the prices fell. However, the prices were still higher than in the past years.

Europe

The current economic backlash owing to the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered an acute energy crisis in Europe. The prices of crude oil, gas and related products rose drastically giving way to double-digit inflation. The high prices of coking coal prices were due to the higher seasonal demand. However, the prices stabilized in the fourth quarter as Australia replaced Russia as the major exporter of Coking Coal to Europe. Because of high inflation low activities of downstream steel mills were observed, which pulled down the demands and caused the market prices to fall.

North America

The high electricity prices and diminishing availability of coking coal due to lower exports from Australia have led to refineries decreasing production. The short supply amid high demand caused the coking coal prices to inflate throughout the North American market. The supply chains normalised in the fourth quarter causing the price trend to stabilize with a series of occasional inclines and declines.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the outlook for coking coal prices appears to be mixed for 2023. However, in the long term, the energy commodity’s rates will fall. The high prices for coking coal were not sustainable for long as they were driven by temporary supply disruptions as opposed to market fundamentals.
 

Coking Coal Price Trend For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

To accommodate the ever-increasing demands of its power sector, India relies heavily upon imports. Amid the ongoing geopolitical dynamics and weather disturbances, the price trend of coking coal exploded globally. The prices rose 3-fold to around 450 USD/MT compared to the year back at 120-130 USD/MT. Coking coal is one of the primary feedstocks required for steel production.

Hence, due to the rising costs of inputs, the margins of the Indian steel industry are affected. According to ISA (Indian Steel Association), the price of coking coal in steel production is around 28,000-30,000 INR/MT, which accounts for 40-45% of the entire production cost, provided all the other variables are kept constant.

In April, the Chinese imports of coking coal from Russia reached a record high due to the discounted prices offered by Russia before the European embargo. Coking coal prices went from 3151.3 RMB/ton in April to 2811.4 RMB/ton in June 2022. This price decrease was due to the decreased demands from the downstream sectors. Though the Chinese market for coking coal weakened towards the end of this quarter, the prices are still higher than the previous year.

Europe

During this quarter, coking coal prices remained gusty due to the robust and persistent demand from the European states despite the constant supply chain disruptions. Many EU member states depend on Russia to fulfil its coal requirements, and the current sanctions triggered an acute energy crisis in Europe. The coal prices averaged 374 USD/MT in the forecast period.

North America

For this quarter, the price trend in the United States remained strong. Per ton price of coking averaged around 333-370 USD.
 

Coking Coal Price Trend For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

Average coking coal prices were around 2,665 RMB/MT, up 72.86% over the same period last year. On January 20, the commodities index for northern coking coal was steady from the previous day at 196.68, down 29.31% from the cycle high of 278.23 on November 9, 2021, and up 337.94% from the cycle low of 44.91 on January 28, 2016.

In terms of downstream coke, the price of coke in Shanxi was 2,938 RMB/MT the previous weekend. The coke market price remained constant for a time. Russian exports accounted for around 10% of the world's met coal trade in terms of volume. Customers from China and India had been purchasing spot Russian material at a discount to Australian pricing.

Separately, the export window for Chinese coals increasingly opened up as a result of the international market upswing. At the end of March, worldwide coking coal prices for premium hard grades were 150 USD/MT higher than domestic Chinese pricing, enabling for significantly more competitive exports of Chinese materials.

Europe

European thermal coal quotes went fresh historic highs with restricted supply on the global market and Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine. Russian coal exports fell since the start of the crisis in Ukraine. Shipping records revealed that coal continued to be delivered from Russian ports to Europe, but several big energy corporations, including Centrica, Vattenfall, Orsted, and BP, chose to  wait-and-see to buy Russian coal, fearing future penalties.

In reality, global coal markets were the target of an experiment on the hypothetical removal of 1/6 of the supply, accounting for the part of Russian coal in the world market, that led to an unprecedented spike in prices. As of March 09, 2022, the indices rose above 415 USD/MT, eventually correcting to 360 USD/MT.

North America

Coking coal prices in the United States were 388 USD/MT during the month of March.
 

Coking Coal Price Trend For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

Heavy rains were observed in the Shanxi region of China, the nation's main coal producing province, after record floods slammed the mining district of Henan in July. The floods also hindered China's initiatives to raise fuel supplies to address its increasing energy crisis.

Shanxi Province, which supplied about a third of China's coal supplies in the year 2021, had to temporarily stop dozens of mines owing to flooding. Although several sites progressively restored functioning afterwards. While safety difficulties and flooding hampered domestic mines in China, border barriers between Mongolia and China and ongoing diplomatic disputes between China and Australia only aggravated the situation.

Hard coking coal prices resumed a surge that started in October 2020, reaching record levels of 600 USD/MT CFR China, before falling dramatically in November and stabilising at rates of around 400 USD/MT CFR China.

While coal imports declined by 26.8% year on year, monthly imports increased by 6%, continuing the rising trend from 14.85 MT in October 2021 in India. Meanwhile, the country's coal imports fell by 22.5% in November 2021 to 15.78 MT, down from 20.35 MT in the same month last year.

On a month-to-month basis, coal imports grew marginally by 0.21% in November 2021, to 15.75 MT. India's import demand was muted following the conclusion of the festive season and the improvement of domestic supplies. As a result, the impact of the easing of seaborne prices on import volumes was minimal.

Europe

According to several industry participants, steel manufacturing costs climbed by more than 100 EUR/MT in the last few months of 2021. Mills were projected to increase offer levels further in the coming months, despite no hint of a decline in energy costs across Europe. Because steel demand remained sluggish, mills struggled to sell coking coal at increased prices that fully covered the increased energy expenses.

North America

In November, supply disruptions weighed on US and Canadian coking coal exports, although exceptionally high prices through October and early November encouraged mining businesses to transport cargoes wherever possible. Exports increased in the second half of the year, as mining firms increased output wherever possible in response to the increase demand from Chinese consumers. Nonetheless, output growth had been restricted by the ongoing Warrior Met Coal strike, as well as a generalized labour shortage and substandard rail performance. In October, Argus' daily FOB Hampton Roads estimate reached a record 495.06 USD/MT, up from 112.75 USD/MT a year earlier.

Latin America

Rising demand from China impacted US exports to Brazil. Exports decreased by 21% to 4.54 million tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2021. In August, US and Canadian coking coal exports to China and India increased, while LATAM purchasers sought cheaper Australian cargoes. US exports to Brazil declined 32.7% year on year and 10.8% month on month to 306,199 MT, as customers selected cheaper Australian cargoes. Labor shortages were also a short- and long-term constraint on the US supply.
 

Coking Coal Price Trend For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

Steel demand was mostly bullish in the market outlook, owing to anticipation of a seasonal boost in demand and increasing Covid-19 vaccines. China's supply was limited as a result of local production restrictions tied in part to the country's emissions reduction ambitions.

Coking coal prices increased as freight crisscrossed the globe, with India and Europe purchasing from Australia and China purchasing from the Americas. This has resulted in an increase in voyage times. Stagnant unloading routines at Chinese port resulted in vessel scarcity and raised costs in recent months. In the first half of 2021, ex-China spot demands for seaborne coking coal surged by around 280% year on year.

Europe

Steel mills throughout the world, from China to India, Europe, and Brazil, were trying to secure metallurgical coal amid an unprecedented rise fueled by limited global supplies and disruptions in trade flows caused by the COVID-19 outbreak. Despite the scarcity of supply, spot shipments attracted increased buying interest in Sep 2021 from conventional foreign markets.

North America

The significant rise in seaborne metallurgical coal price that began in mid-second quarter lasted far into the second half of the year, as the global supply-demand balance tightened and a trade tension between Australia and China erupted.

Latin America

The impact of regional COVID-19 lockdowns, which resulted in steel output restrictions, and China's expiration of import quotas earlier in the year put a lot of pressure on the marketplace until late August, as Vale, a major Brazilian miner, noted. Coking coal prices then increased further, reaching 139 USD/MT by the end of September 2021. Numerous nations in LATAM began relaxing lockout restrictions, increasing the demand as steel output steadily increased.
 

Coking Coal Price Trend For the Year 2020

Asia

Spot coking coal prices increased in the first quarter of 2020. This happened because the epidemic limited China's coal production, and Mongolia's decision to close its border with China increased China's imports. Due to the collapse of global steel production outside of China as a result of pandemic confinement, the cost plummeted to approximately 110 USD/MT in April 2020.

Coking coal prices surged at the end of the third quarter as demand from steelmakers beyond the Chinese borders increased production. Intense rainfall in Queensland also encouraged higher prices, but Australian coal's troubles at Chinese customs drove prices down.

Europe

Mining costs grew as a result of heightened safety and social distancing measures in response to the epidemic, while coal prices stayed low. Among other considerations, this resulted in a major proportion of the world's coal mines being unable to stay profitable in 2020, with coking coal having superior economics over thermal coal. By the end of June, Europe constituted about 18% of Australia's spot export volume across a range of grades, comprising premium hard CC, hard CC, pulverised coal injection (PCI), and semi soft coal, up from 5% in 2020. Jastrzbska Spólka Wglowa (JSW), the largest European producer of the product, declared force majeure. Coking coal prices remained low in the second quarter, but stayed stable compared to the first, as the COVID-19 outbreak halted mining operations in Poland.

North America

Reduced fuel prices reduced operational expenses in the coal mining industry, particularly for operators of opencast mines that are dependent on diesel trucks and other equipment.

Low fuel costs benefited countries with a heavy reliance on opencast mining in particular. While average fuel expenses decreased in 2019 as a consequence of reduced diesel prices, these impacts were exacerbated in 2020 as a result of the pandemic and the following significant collapse in diesel prices, leading to additional drops in overall fuel costs.

Reduced total fuel costs translated into a lower share of overall mining supply costs in the majority of countries. After prices stabilised in early 2020, Covid-related demand curtailment pushed coking coal prices lower. Additionally, strikes in the US harmed trade.

Latin America

In 2020, as a result of the global economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 epidemic, the leading coal exporting countries' currencies fell against the USD. South America's emerging markets had been particularly hard hit. In the instance of Colombia, this was primarily owing to the country's reliance on the price of oil.

For the third quarter, spot demand in the Atlantic was primarily limited to Brazilian mills, and despite stronger stockpiles at mines, certain suppliers were still willing to discount. Latin America's raw steel production increased by 8% in May compared to April, primarily due to Brazil, where consumption and production increased from a low starting in April.

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