Cotton Lint Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Cotton Lint in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Cotton Lint Price Trend for Second Half of 2023

The global demand for textiles and apparel plays a significant role in driving cotton lint prices, as cotton is a primary raw material. Additionally, in the past few years, weather conditions and agricultural practices have affected cotton yields, impacting the supply chains. Further, technological advancements in cotton farming and processing have also enhanced productivity and quality, impacting market dynamics and competitiveness.

The U.S. cotton production for the 2023/24 season has decreased by 315,000 bales to 12.8 million bales, attributed to lower yields in Texas. Consequently, the exports were 100,000 bales lower at 12.2 million bales, leading to a reduction of 200,000 bales in ending stocks. Despite these adjustments, the season-average price for upland cotton remained stable, leading to a stagnancy in the price trend of cotton Lint.

Globally, the cotton outlook reflected significant changes, with the world's beginning stocks reduced by 10.3 million bales due to abrupt weather patterns observed in Brazil. Similarly, ending stocks have decreased by 10.0 million bales due to the same cause. Another minor change in global production, consumption, and trade was also observed, with larger crops in Brazil, Argentina, and Tanzania offsetting reductions in the United States, Australia, and Greece. Overall, the U.S. and global cotton Lint market depicted lower rates in production, exports, and stocks but with stable prices due to balanced demand from the consumer sector in the third and fourth quarters of 2023.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Cotton Lint is expected to oscillate in a narrow range as the downstream industries and global production rates are estimated to move opposite to each other.

Cotton Lint Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Cotton Lint is the raw fibre obtained from cotton plants that are processed to make fabrics, garments, paper, etc. Cotton is probably the most famous and consumed natural fabric. The price trend are dependent on the crop yield, availability, and demand in the market. Also, the summer season sees higher demand as cotton is considered a summer-friendly fabric.

In the Chinese domestic market, Cotton Lint prices were observed to be on an upward trend throughout the first half of 2023. The commencement of the Chinese New Year promoted garment shopping at the beginning of the first quarter; meanwhile, the second quarter saw an increase in consumption because of the summer season. The only fluctuations were observed in the latter half of Q1, as the New Year holidays shut off the markets, suddenly bringing the consumption down. However, curtailed supplies because of hampered yields driven by the adverse climatic conditions contributed to the upward trend.

The spot prices in the Chinese domestic market went from about 2242 USD/MT in January’23 to around 2419 USD/MT in June’23, with an approximate incline of about 7% within the discussed time period.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Cotton Lint prices are expected to continue behaving in a similar manner since the demand dynamics look stable, and supply remains constricted.

Cotton Lint Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

The price trend for cotton lint recorded a diverse pattern throughout the Asia Pacific region. In China, the fundamentals for domestic cotton were weak as the ICE cotton futures fell sharply. The US dollar's appreciation and the looming global recession speculations caused the prices to crash. The downstream demand for cotton fibres from the textiles sector declined amid shortages. The weaving mills were slow to start as they were still reeling under the pressure of power cuts.

However, the price of cotton lint increased in the Indian domestic market. The cotton lint prices rose in the Indian market owing to crop losses due to pests and heavy rainfall over the cotton-growing areas. August alone saw a 12% increase in the prices of cotton lint. Amid the short supply, the demand from the downstream textile sector further caused the prices to rise. However, some stabilization in the prices was seen towards the end of Q4 as the supply chains and trade normalised.

North America

During the said period, cotton lint prices surged throughout the US domestic market. At worst, drought-like conditions affected US cotton production, recording the lowest output since the 19th century. The low production, coupled with high sales and export supply, caused the prices to surge throughout the period. Even though the prices stabilized towards the end of December’22, the values were still higher than the previous years.

Latin America

The price trend for cotton lint decreased in the Brazilian market throughout the concerned period. The prices were lower than the previous quarter but still higher than the average a year ago. The prices fluctuated due to the affected supply-demand dynamics in both the national and international markets. The price fluctuations added to logistic issues and the heterogeneous quality of the cotton available was reduced.

Analyst Insight

According to the Procurement Resource, the price trend for cotton lint are likely to remain unsettled in the coming quarter given the current market volatilities. The interplay between market demand and production values will dictate the price trend for cotton lint.

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

According to the World Bank’s Raw Material Prices report, cotton prices are expected to rise by 40% Y-O-Y in 2022. With the continuing supply chain disruptions and diminished production due to weather-related changes, prices for cotton lint soared worldwide.

In India, the cost of the commodity went from 75,000 INR/candy (356kg) in Jan 2022 to 1,15,000 INR/candy in May 2022, recording a total 53% rise in the price since Jan 2022. Lower domestic cotton production, higher demand and soaring international prices caused a liquidity crisis amongst the Indian manufacturers.

The South Indian Spinners Association have called for the complete closure of mills until the market prices are conducive to sustainable production. The new cotton season beginning in October is likely to bring some respite to the spinners pan India.

In China, the average price of cotton 3128B was recorded at around 21,267 RMB/MT. The price trend for cotton lint are flowing towards the lower side in the Chinese domestic arena due to the increased interest rates by the US, along with the heightened speculations of economic recessions. Amid the current market volatility, the downstream purchases were diminished, leading to lower prices.

North America

The cost of the commodity is constantly decreasing in the US domestic arena. The lower production due to dry weather conditions and export restrictions led to this decrease. The price went from 157.54 USD/lb in May 2022 to 104.49 USD/lb in June 2022. The rising inflation and the worldwide uncertainty of recession have weakened the already muted domestic demand.

Latin America

Brazilian cotton lint prices averaged 1.62-1.17 USD/kg or 1620.8 USD/MT during the said forecast period. The rise in international prices, appreciation of the US dollar against the Brazilian Real, and export parity have led to the increased price in the global market.

For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

On March 9, the average price of China's cotton index 3128B was 22,727 RMB/MT, up 23 RMB/MT from the previous day. On the 21st, the domestic cotton price index 3128B averaged 22,783 RMB/MT, down 39 RMB/MT from the previous weekend.

Downstream textile firms were working regularly, and there was some need for warehouse replenishment. Recently, Zheng cotton lint prices have corrected sharply, and yarn manufacturers have boosted their queries.

North America

At the end of January, the spot price of cotton traded on the ICE Exchange was at roughly 1.30 USD/lb. As of March 4, the  price was 1.20 USD/lb. Exports from the United States were expected at 13.8 million bales for the 2021 marketing year, which is 950,000 bales less than the USDA's February 2022 projection.

While export sales from the United States have been quite high in the 2021 marketing year, weekly shipments lagged significantly below the five-year average, along with the interruptions and delays caused by transportation concerns.

Latin America

Cotton lint prices continued to rise in Brazil in March as sellers maintained their bids, largely in response to the strong gains in future contracts at ICE futures. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index finished at 7.2585 BRL/lb on March 31, marking a new high for the CEPEA series, which began in 1996. In March, several processors were working with cotton that had been stockpiled and/or receiving merchandise previously acquired due to the month's pricing levels.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

In November, the Cotton Association of India predicted that the cotton exports in the country will drop by 38%. Cotton lint prices increased by 45% in the region as demand outstripped the supply. However, production was likely to rebound as consumer demand rebounded to pre-pandemic levels with the festive season near the corner as the country recovered from the coronavirus pandemic followed by a massive vaccination drive.

North America

In New York, cotton futures increased by 3.3% in October and approached peak prices. The prices jumped to 2.59 USD/kg in October 2021. The US crop in Texas was affected adversely by the droughts and the exports dropped twofold in the previous month of September. The US is a major exporter of the commodity and accounts for 41% of the global cotton lint exports. However due to a poor crop turnout as a result of unfavorable weather conditions, the exports slumped which caused global deficits and increased its prices.

Latin America

Cotton lint prices in Brazil continued to rise till November consecutively for 5 months, rising by 5.25% to 6.26 BRL/lb. The export values increased as farmers tried to keep up with the local and overseas demand.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

Cotton supplies in India were low as compared to the demand which contributed to the rise in its prices globally. The prices witnessed 10-year highs in 2021 as a result of a global supply deficit.

Europe

Cotton lint prices in Europe had been increasing since the beginning of the year 2021 with the prices crossing the 1USD/lb mark. The prices increased as a result of rise in demand from the apparel industry which was rapidly recovering as the economy reopened following massive vaccination drives. Rise in shipping prices were also a factor in the surge in its prices.

North America

In New York, cotton delivery gained 1.15 USD/lb in March 2021. The crop harvest was affected by rains in the regions of Florida, Georgia and Alabama which affected the quality. The demand had been rising in US in both regional and international markets for exports which drove up the prices as stockpiles tightened in the region.

Latin America

In June 2021, the market in Brazil stayed strong and cotton lint prices remained firm as domestic demand boomed in the region. The prices were 23% higher than the export parity which meant that domestic market was more profitable than the export market. The cotton index reported a price of 4.9 BRL/lb. in June 2021.

For the Year 2020

Asia

In November 2020, cotton lint prices in India increased from 66 cents/lb to 69 cents/lb or 37,900 INR/candy to 40,200 INR/candy. The value of rupee had dropped against the US dollar causing inflation in the region. In China, the cotton index rose from 12,900 RMB/MT to 14,500 RMB/MT. China witnessed high price rise in the commodity’s market, as weather conditions posed challenges to the domestic crops which dwindled the availability in Chinese mills.

Europe

In Europe, the textile industry was heavily impacted by the coronavirus pandemic as demand for textiles dropped amid lockdowns. The unprecedented disruptions in the trade activities along with economic crisis, loss of employments, drop in demand from major consumers like China were the major contributors to the damage to textile industry. Major producing countries like Italy, Germany and France observed a decline in exports as well as local demand in 2020.

North America

The US market was impacted by the coronavirus in the beginning of the year 2020. The New York cotton futures dipped to 53.6 cents/lb in March 2020, the lowest since 2009. The decrease in prices supported the halt in production. Cotton lint prices were also affected by the trade disputes with China which affected the demand.   By November 2020, the US crop suffered due to the hurricanes which impacted the fiber quality in the region.

Latin America

In Brazil, the cotton market profitability improved by the third quarter of 2020. In the beginning of the year, its futures had been traded at 69 cents/lb but they dropped later on following the pandemic which impacted the industry and caused the cotton lint prices to go down by 20 cents/lb by April end to 49 cents/lb. However, the prices recovered by October 2020, rising to 70 cents/lb.

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