Crude oil prices have risen sharply due to escalating tensions in West Asia, specifically the US-Iran conflict impacting the Strait of Hormuz. This price increase is reviving inflation concerns and is expected to drive market sentiment and influence the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
Renewed fighting between US and Iran has slowed shipping through the Gulf of Hormuz, disrupting supply routes. Benchmark crude prices have climbed sharply from pre-conflict levels, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk. The upward price pressure is likely to continue while tensions persist.
| Product | Region | Incoterm Basis | Price | Last Updated Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | USA | FOB | USD 91.12/bbl | May 2026 |
| Crude Oil | UAE | FOB | USD 90.08/bbl | May 2026 |
| Crude Oil | Russia | FOB | USD 82.56/bbl | May 2026 |
| Crude Oil | Netherlands | FOB | USD 91.12/bbl | May 2026 |
| Crude Oil | Iran | FOB | USD 90.04/bbl | May 2026 |
| Crude Oil | USA | FOB | USD 105.07/bbl | April 2026 |
| Crude Oil | UAE | FOB | USD 108.02/MT | April 2026 |
| Crude Oil | Russia | FOB | USD 112.14/MT | April 2026 |
| Crude Oil | Netherlands | FOB | USD 110.40/MT | April 2026 |
| Crude Oil | Iran | FOB | USD 105.70/MT | April 2026 |
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Asia
In the United Arab Emirates, the monthly average Crude Oil price was about AED 396.53/bbl in April and around AED 330.82/bbl in the subsequent month, showing a decrease of ~16.6%. Regional pricing benefited during the early part of the quarter from supply issues in the Middle East due to Strait of Hormuz issues, which later subsided as tensions reduced, alleviating some of the risk premium. Meanwhile, the export situation was constrained by supply-side concerns, with the availability of global crude tightening considerably due to constrained production from the upstream side. Additionally, in Iran, the monthly average Crude Oil price was ~IRR 145,477,915/bbl in April and around IRR 123,893,238/bbl in the subsequent month, showing a decrease of about 14.8%. Pricing remained sensitive to geopolitical risk and shipping disruptions, though easing regional tensions reduced the embedded premium in May.
Europe
In the Netherlands, the monthly average Crude Oil price was about EUR 96.48/bbl in April and around EUR 79.63/bbl in the subsequent month, showing a decrease of ~17.5%. Supply constraints from Gulf disruptions reduced global availability, while downstream softness across Europe’s refining sector further weighed on spot pricing. Product margins, however, remained supported in diesel and jet fuel due to replacement barrel demand.
North America
In the United States, the monthly average Crude Oil price was ~USD 105.07/bbl in April and around USD 91.12/bbl in the subsequent month, showing a decrease of about 13.3%. WTI remained comparatively weaker than Brent during Q2’26, with price pressure linked to softer inland demand conditions and shifting global export flows. North American balances were partially supported by strong petroleum product exports, with record outbound flows helping absorb excess supply and limiting sharper price declines despite weaker refinery throughput conditions.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, crude oil prices are expected to remain range-bound with geopolitical premiums offset by weaker refinery runs and uneven global demand recovery.
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Asia
In India, crude oil prices climbed from INR 4,965.06/barrel in January to INR 6,590.20/barrel in March, marking a 23.35% month-on-month jump and a 13.87% increase quarter-on-quarter. The Middle East conflict disrupted standard tanker routes through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a surge in freight charges and insurance costs for crude shipments. Indian refiners such as IOC, HPCL, and BPCL began demanding advance payments from retail outlets to manage constrained supply. With 40% of India’s crude imported from the Middle East and 60% of LPG passing through Hormuz, domestic LPG availability dropped. Refineries have been forced to seek alternate suppliers, including Russian barrels, while rescheduling maintenance and shipping plans to mitigate shortages.
Europe
In the European region, the crude oil prices rose notably in the first quarter of 2026. Disrupted Gulf exports forced European buyers to compete for limited cargoes, driving up both freight rates and insurance premiums. LNG shipments intended for Asia were partially rerouted, affecting European energy logistics. Supply shortfalls combined with a stronger dollar raised import costs. Energy security concerns also prompted European buyers to secure long-term contracts and explore non-Gulf sources. Overall, these factors kept crude and product prices high despite moderate demand growth tempered by inflationary pressures and economic slowdown risks.
North America
Crude oil in North America rose from 64 USD/barrel (SPOT) in January to 86 USD/barrel in March, representing a 25.56% month-on-month increase and 16.74% quarter-on-quarter rise. The U.S. faced high-risk premiums for Gulf imports, with insurance and freight costs climbing sharply due to the Iran war. Strategic stockpiles helped cushion the impact, with crude inventories rising by 3.5 million barrels to the highest level in over three years. Domestic production adjustments and potential U.S. Navy escort operations for tankers through Hormuz were key to stabilizing the market. Nonetheless, the elevated geopolitical risk kept WTI prices volatile, with further spikes possible if tanker traffic remains restricted.
Crude Oil is an unrefined petroleum product. Petroleum is basically a naturally occurring, yellowish-black liquid that is most commonly found in geological formations beneath the Earth's surface. Crude Oil is extracted for burning as fuel and for processing into chemical products. It is a combination of comparatively volatile liquid hydrocarbons. Being a type of fossil fuel, crude oil is refined to manufacture usable products like gasoline, diesel, and several other forms of petrochemicals.
Jet fuel and diesel, Lubricating oils, Gasoline, Tar, Heating oils, Asphalt, Electricity generation, Paraffin wax
Black Gold
Sinopec, Royal Dutch Shell, Saudi Arabian Oil Co., China National Petroleum Corporation, BP p.l.c., Exxon Mobil Corporation, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, Total SA, LUKOIL
CurrencyUS$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)
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Note: Our supplier search experts can assist your procurement teams in compiling and validating a list of suppliers indicating they have products, services, and capabilities that meet your company's needs.
Crude Oil is extracted using different methods depending on geology and location. After its extraction, impurities are separated, and the product is further refined to produce different petroleum-based products.
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