Crude Sunflower Oil Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Crude Sunflower Oil in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Crude Sunflower Oil Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Crude sunflower oil prices varied during the last two quarters of 2023. The third quarter witnessed a relatively better market performance than the fourth quarter. El Nino weather effect this year supported the sunflower crop production which led to better yield and unrestricted supplies. After the prices started rising in the Indian edible oil market, the Government of India reduced the import duty, which helped to stabilize the edible oil market and substantially brought down the crude sunflower oil prices in the country.

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The global sunflower oil price outlook also didn’t differ much, and the prices were observed to be vacillating within confined limits throughout the said period. The shipping disturbances caused some strain in the later months of the fourth quarter; however, the overall market sentiments were largely positive.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Crude Sunflower Oil price trends are expected to continue to behave similarly in the coming months, given the current global economy and market dynamics.

Crude Sunflower Oil Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Crude Sunflower Oil is the raw form of Sunflower Oil without any treatments or alterations. The Crude Sunflower Oil prices tottered on the lower end of the price curve throughout H1 2023. The primary reason was an oversupply of Crude Sunflower Oil in the market as the exporting nations registered surplus production.

But the demands from downstream food and cooking industries didn’t pick up as the cooking oil market had tough competition with variable options and diversified oils. This created a divide in the consumer base, giving rise to lacklustre sentiments for the edible oil market. So, with these market dynamics and declined cost support from the upstream market, low swinging price trend for Crude Sunflower Oil were observed.

Analyst insight

According to Procurement Resource, Crude Sunflower Oil is expected to continue behaving in a similar manner as the market is still oversupplied and the demand projections also do not look very supportive.

Crude Sunflower Oil Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

The prices of crude sunflower oil remained anchored in the international market during the said period. The arrival of critical shipments from Ukraine enhanced the global supply of crude sunflower oil prices. Further, Russia announced the removal of export quota systems reducing the export tariffs on crude sunflower oil. The lowered demand amid high-cost inflation, coupled with the above-mentioned factors, caused the price trend for crude sunflower oil to weaken.

In the Asia-pacific region, the Indian government announced the duty-free import of 2 million tonnes of crude sunflower oil until 2024. These tariff reductions further caused the prices to tumble. Hence, the crude sunflower oil market kept weak, keeping the prices firm.

Analyst Review

According to Procurement Resource, it is anticipated that the price of crude sunflower oil will remain weak in the global market. The likelihood of significant volatility is low, though, and prices will generally hold steady.

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

Ukraine and Russia produce over half of the global sunflower seeds, accounting for around 80% of the sunflower oil production. Its price shot up rapidly due to the supply disruptions in the black sea region and various export restrictions. In India, its price recorded around a 30-50% increase from January to April 2022.

The continuing Russian geopolitical stance, lower production from South America due to the weather crisis and the ban on palm oil exports caused sunflower oil prices to increase manifolds during the start of the said quarter. In the India, the prices went from 173.37K INR/MT in April 2022 to 147.015K INR/MT in June 2022.

The decrease towards the end of the said quarter was due to muted demand and ease of restrictions with black sea oil returning to the market. In China, the price of crude sunflower oil averaged around 1221.09 USD/MT in Shanghai and Beijing.

Europe

Amidst the continuing Russian-Ukraine confrontation, the European markets were deprived of the precious black sea sunflower oil. The price soared abnormally around April and fell towards the end of the said forecast period. With the ease of restriction, Ukraine's oil supply returned to the European market.

The Russian players offered the commodity at discounted prices to stimulate the muted demand and eliminate the vast stockpiles. Large quantities offered for sale with lower-than-expected consumer demand led to the price decline. Crude sunflower oil per ton prices averaged 1900-2280 USD in the European markets.

North America

In line with its European counterparts, the price trend in the US observed a similar pattern in the US domestic market. Towards the end of June 2022, an overall decrease in the price was recorded due to the lower market sentiments, tightened supply, and the buyers' unwillingness to pay hiked prices in proportion with the inflated costs.

Latin America

The price in Argentina averaged 0.68-0.74 USD/kg or 684.5 USD/MT in Cordoba and Buenos Aires in the said quarter.

For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

Typically, more than 90% of India's sunflower oil imports originate from Ukraine and Russia, primarily Ukraine. In March, India bought 210,000 MT of sunflower oil, up from 152,220 MT in February, aided by the arrival of a few ships that had left Ukraine before the war. After Ukrainian sunflower oil shipments ended, Indian refiners attempted to procure additional supplies from Russia and Argentina.

India negotiated for 45k MT of Sunflower oil from Russia at a record high price, as edible oil prices in the domestic market soared following the suspension of supply from competitor Ukraine. Refiners purchased crude sunflower oil in India for a record high price of 2,150 USD/MT (CIF), compared to 1,630 USD/MT prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Europe

The cost had already surged even before Russia's invasion, but post invasion, vegetable oil increased to 1.30 GBP/liter at the store, up 22%, y-o-y. Sunflower oil, of which Ukraine and Russia are one of the biggest producers, was up considerably too, by 17p to 1.34 GBP/liter.

The UK's largest bottler of sunflower oil warned that supplies were running short, with just a few weeks remaining, and it revealed that makers of items reliant on the oil, such as crisps and oven chips, were being forced to alter their formulations and switch to alternative oils

North America

In New York and Washington, the average price of a tonne of sunflower oil was 1229.61 USD.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

The government reduced the base import tariff on crude sunflower oil from 7.5 % to 2.5 % in October. The 37.5 % base import duty on refined sunflower oil was cut to 32.5 %. Imports of crude palm oil, soyoil, and sunflower oil would face a total tax of 24.75 % after the changes, including a 2.5 % basic import tariff and other taxes, while refined palm oil, soyoil, and sunflower oil would face a total tax of 35.75 %.

Imports account for more than two-thirds of India's edible oil consumption, and the country has been attempting to maintain steady domestic oil prices in recent months. Palm oil is primarily imported from Indonesia and Malaysia, whilst soy and sunflower oils are primarily imported from Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, and Russia. In the run-up to big festivals, when demand for edible oil increases, tax cuts would slash prices.

Europe

As crude oil prices fell, sunflower prices in Ukraine fell to a three-month low, putting pressure on the vegetable oil complex, while the reappearance of a Covid-19 variant fueled fears of harsher movement restrictions across Europe. As a result of wider declines across the oil complex, sunflower crushers dropped their prices by more than 55-73 USD/MT in December, to 678-715 USD/MT.

North America

Sunflower oil prices in the United States ranged from 1.36k to 1.42k USD/MT in the fourth quarter. The price of refined sunflower oil in the United States was 1493 USD/MT. Many international firms attempted to establish connections with local producers in order to meet regional demand. Furthermore, its use in biodiesel production has aided the sunflower seed oil market's expansion.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

Sunflower Oil prices in India increased by 90% year on year, from 85 INR per litre to 150 INR per litre. The price increase was caused by rising demand and a decrease in imports. Due to the widespread use of sunflower oil in bakery, snack, and confectionery items, the Asia-Pacific region had tremendous growth potential in the global market. In 2021, the region's bakery business thrived, because to growing demand for new and healthier baked goods.

Singapore's Ministry of Health, for example, declared in 2019 that all PHOs will be banned as an ingredient in all meals beginning in June 2021. As a result, food producers began using sunflower seed oil, which raised demand in the region. Because they were among the world's most populous countries, India and China were the region's largest importers.

Europe

Sunflower seed prices in Ukraine were 645 USD/MT in January, 740 USD/MT in May, and 568 USD/MT in September. The business in the region was flourishing, with demand for this type of oil skyrocketing. Its high smoke point and huge amount of unsaturated fatty acids fueled its popularity in the region.

North America

The US export price of sunflower oil was expected to be 1.35k USD/MT in January, USD/MT in May, and 1.31k USD/MT in September during the first three quarters of 2021. The price of refined sunflower oil in the United States was 1493 USD/MT. Food companies' increased use of this oil for frying and cooking has resulted in a boom in domestic demand in recent years. Furthermore, a growing number of businesses in the area were investing in huge food processing facilities.

For the Year 2020

Asia

In November, crude sunflower oil prices in India were 1148 USD/MT. According to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), edible oil imports fell by 5%, bringing the total to 14.2 MMT. This was due to supply chain disruptions and lower-income consumers' spending cuts. Supply chain management disruptions, on the other hand, were beginning to subside, and the industry was resuming its normal pace as governments removed trade embargoes.

Europe

During the first three quarters of the year, the average price of sunflower seed in Ukraine was 340 USD/MT, rising to 590 USD/MT in December. The COVID-19 epidemic caused havoc on the worldwide economy and threw supply chains into disarray. The expansion of the sunflower seed and oil industries was also hampered by government-imposed trade barriers and limitations.

The foodservice and HoReCa (hotel, restaurant, and café) industries have been ravaged by the stay-at-home client trend. The spread of the coronavirus resulted in an increase in edible oil prices, which impacted the major oil-exporting countries significantly.

North America

In January of 2020, the US export price for sunflower oil was 840 USD/MT, then 730 USD/MT in June, before rising to 1040 USD/MT in September. The average price in the fourth quarter was 1150 USD/MT. In North America, the oil extracted from the seeds was widely used in the culinary, energy, and chemical industries. One of the aspects that supported the market's rise was its widespread application in the food business.

Latin America

In January, Argentina's market price for crude sunflower oil for 2020 was 698 USD/MT. The oleic acid, linoleic acid, and other vital minerals in the oil assist the body lower cholesterol levels. Its popularity as a healthy cooking and frying oil among food manufacturers and consumers has continuously increased. This oil was also popular as a cosmetic ingredient and in the production of vegan mayonnaise, cheese, and spreads. As a result, the confluence of these variables aided demand in 2020.

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