- DAP prices strengthened globally in Q1’26 as the Middle East conflict from Feb. 28 disrupted fertilizer logistics, raised freight risk, and tightened supply confidence across import-dependent markets.
- Feedstock pressure came mainly from ammonia and phosphoric acid. The Strait disruption affected about 24% of seaborne ammonia exports, raising concerns over DAP production costs.
- Downstream demand was supported by spring application needs, especially in Asia, though buyers avoided heavy forward bookings due to freight, policy, and supply uncertainty.
Asia
In China, DAP prices moved upward during Q1’26 as domestic supply remained prioritized over exports. China maintained its phosphate fertilizer export suspension through August 2026, limiting export availability during the peak domestic consumption season. Higher ammonia-linked production costs and firm phosphoric acid requirements supported market sentiment. In India, DAP demand remained steady due to seasonal fertilizer application. Buyers also tracked supply risks from the Gulf region, especially after fertilizer producers faced a 30% gas supply cut from March 9, which affected ammonia-linked production economics.
Europe
European DAP prices remained firm due to tighter import availability and higher logistics risk. Fertilizer producers in Europe withdrew offers during the early conflict phase, creating a supply gap that had to be covered by higher-cost origins from the US and Southeast Asia. War-risk insurance for Persian Gulf transits rose 50%, while shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell 75%, making prompt cargo planning more difficult. Higher freight risk and limited nearby offers kept buyers cautious.
North America
North American DAP prices were supported by export interest and supply-chain risk premiums. The region was less directly exposed to Middle East supply disruption than Asia, but stronger buying interest from Europe and Asia supported market sentiment. Europe’s shift toward US-origin cargoes added firmness, while freight uncertainty kept exporters focused on committed volumes rather than aggressive new offers.