DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

India, the world's largest consumer of urea and DAP, is highly dependent on imports to meet its domestic requirements. The continuing geopolitical dynamics caused the price of fertilizers to increase constantly. With India importing over 1/3 of its total phosphate fertilizers, rising global prices caused massive volatility in the domestic market.

With inflated international prices, tightened global supply and rising domestic demand, DAP prices tipped towards the other end of the scale. Similarly, with China resuming its production post the covid-19 restrictions, the heightened market sentiment caused the prices to rise in the Asia.

Europe

The price trends of the fertilizer stood firm in the European market during the said quarter. Per ton price of DAP went from 954 USD in April 2022 to 783.8 USD in June 2022. Prices decreased towards the end of this quarter due to muted market sentiments amidst the runaway inflation in Europe.

North America

In line with the European market, its price trends weakened in this quarter. The constant supply chain disruptions, the increased cost of natural gas, hampered production and demand destruction contributed to this decrease. The US DAP spot price (Gulf) averaged 783.75 USD/MT for June 2022, which is approximately 6.97% less than that for May 2022, i.e., 845.5 USD/MT.

For the First Quarter of 2022

North America

In the fourth week of March 2022, significantly increased retail fertiliser prices returned in the Ohama region of America. DAP was 16% more expensive in March than it was in February, averaging 1,014 USD/MT. The previous high for the phosphorus fertiliser was established in the first week of November 2008, at 984 USD/MT.

The short-lived strike may have caused some potash difficulties, but the biggest stressor on fertiliser right now is transportation bottlenecks in the Black Sea region. Global potash supplies have decreased as a result of Russian and Belarusian producers effectively ceasing to export the fertiliser following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

The price rose sharply this quarter, owing to strong demand and a global scarcity. The Chinese government imposed a prohibition on the export of various phosphates, which had a direct impact on supplies in the Indian market. In addition, the beginning of Rabi season boosted demand in India.

Strong domestic and worldwide demand, low fertiliser stocks, and the domestic fertiliser sector's failure to alter production levels all contributed to the price hike. Natural gas prices in the upstream have risen considerably this quarter, influencing the cost of all fertilisers. In the Indian market, CFR JNPT prices jumped to INR 59 per kg, while Chinese offers in December last week were reported at 595 USD/MT FOB Qingdao.

Europe

Due to rising natural gas prices, which caused an energy crisis in Europe, demand for the fertiliser remained high. Despite the fast spread of COVID 19, agrochemical production remained minimal due to transportation limitations. Several customers requested early contract purchases of DAP in anticipation of high demand during the winter season, which increased imports and prices towards the end of Q4 2021.

North America

DAP prices stood around historic levels in the fourth quarter of 2021, owing to greater demand throughout the spring season. Reduced supply availability worsened the pricing impact of lower spring demand, with some analysts expecting DAP demand losses.

On the supply side, export limitations imposed by China and Russia reduced global availability somewhat in the quarter, boosting import competition and causing fresh offshore supply concerns, as US trade flows had just recently adapted to the loss of Russian and Moroccan exports. In a number of important global regions, higher prices are also reducing consumer expectations. DAP prices in the United States were quoted at 760 USD/MT DEL Illinois during the last week of December.

Latin America

Fertiliser prices rose as a result of record natural gas and coal prices, which had prompted output cuts in the energy-intensive fertiliser sector. The price of urea has increased by more than 200 percent this year, while the price of DAP nearly doubled. Brazil is the world's leading soybean producer and the world's third-largest corn producer. DAP prices were 4,035.79 BRL/MT in Brazil. The country had warned that a fertiliser scarcity next year will hinder the expansion of soy, corn, and cotton farms.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

Domestic demand for the fertiliser in Asia was modest to low, but export demand from the United States and Europe was strong. Domestic demand in China remained mild, but export demand was higher than expected, owing to a local material constraint caused by decreasing upstream natural gas availability, which effectively pressured DAP prices to rise in the region.

Meanwhile, domestic demand from the agriculture industry in India was low, so producers boosted their exports to meet rising demand from the United States and Europe. Despite stable demand from Indian markets, retail DAP prices increased by more than 50% throughout the quarter, boosted by worldwide rate increases.

Despite a significant scarcity across the globe, demand for diammonium phosphate remained strong in Asia this quarter. Retail DAP prices rose by roughly 40% to 60% in India at the end of May, owing to robust demand and firming feedstock value. As a result of the strong demand prognosis, prices hovered above 509 USD/MT in May 2021. To counter the sharp increase in DAP prices, the government had to step in and provide a subsidy while still protecting farmers' interests. Similarly, due to increasing import demand from Bangladesh and other worldwide markets, prices in China rose dramatically.

During Q3, DAP prices in Asia increased exponentially, owing to strong demand from downstream sectors despite limited supply. A sharp increase in feedstock values was seen in China, resulting in a spike in its prices across the area. Several other causes, such as low production rates due to energy shortages and supply disruptions exacerbated by congestion at several Chinese ports, also contributed to the increase in DAP cost in this timeframe.

Prices also increased in India, owing to a lack of supply and strong demand from downstream firms. In addition, rising freight costs and container shortages wreaked havoc on DAP's value. As a result, the monthly average price of the fertiliser in September was 652.49 USD/MT, up roughly 60 USD/MT from July.

Europe

Due to the onset of the spring season in Europe, there was a surge in demand for the fertiliser from the agricultural sector. Because of the significant demand from both the domestic and international markets, producers planned to raise its prices in the coming months. Due to a shortage of DAP in the United States, European producers were forced to increase their export volumes in order to boost their margins and price premiums.

During the second quarter of 2021, high global demand pushed up DAP prices in Europe. In the meantime, Europe's import demand remained strong, and dealers were willing to pay premiums for cargoes arriving from India and the Middle East. In addition, the rise in its costs in Europe was aided by an increase in feedstock ammonia and phosphoric acid prices due to scarcity. On the demand side, end-user demand for the fertiliser remained high enough to support this sharp increase in the region.

The steady increase in the value of DAP in Europe during the third quarter of 2021 was due to skyrocketing Natural Gas prices due to restricted supplies. Due to the European energy crisis, many big manufacturers were forced to reduce their production rates, which assisted the DAP pricing trend. Furthermore, during Q3 2021, a jump in the global market for feed ammonia and phosphoric acid affected the prices of the fertiliser in Europe. The downstream sectors' demand, on the other hand, remained strong throughout the quarter.

North America

The fertiliser remained resilient across the area and globally during Q1 2021, resulting in continuing price escalation, which was exacerbated by the winter storm that slammed the US Gulf Coast. This price increase was caused by a scarcity of upstream minerals such as nitrogen.

Several nitrogen manufacturers shut down their plants due to the harsh weather, resulting in a feedstock ammonia scarcity. Prices soared across the region as a result of these conditions, reaching 576.7 USD/MT in March. This price increase was aided by strong local demand, which resulted in a greater reliance on imports from Europe.

During the second part of the quarter, demand in the United States increased due to higher farming activity and favourable weather conditions. DAP prices began to fall in April due to plentiful spot availability in the country and soaring demand.

However, in the second half of the quarter, prices began to rise, aided by clear weather and increasing end-user offtakes. As a result, DAP prices hit 624 USD/MT in mid-June. Furthermore, despite steady offtakes, supply remained sufficient to meet demand, and prices remained stable throughout the month of June.

The market forecast for the fertiliser in North America appeared bright in the third quarter, with growing demands and tight dynamics keeping prices on the rise. As a result of the Ida hurricane, most industries and refineries along the Gulf Coast of the United States were closed by the end of August, affecting North America's production and supply chain. However, following the recovery in commercial and industrial activity, there was an improvement in end-user offtakes in this timeframe. As a result, FOB NOLA prices hovered at 650-700 USD/MT in September, indicating a rise of 60-110 USD/MT over the previous quarter.

Latin America

Brazil is the world's fourth largest fertiliser consumer (after China, India, and the United States) and imports over 80% of its fertiliser needs. The prices increased considerably from January to September 2021. The costs increased by 57% to 4,922 BRL/acre this season compared to last. For one acre, the exchange ratio of a 60 kg bag of maize to NPK (nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium) and DAP climbed to 92% and 60%, respectively.

This exchange rate is the amount of corn required to purchase one acre of fertiliser. Fertiliser prices had risen for a variety of reasons. They included supply interruptions induced by Hurricane Ida in late August 2021, which led to plant closures, an increase in natural gas prices, and overall supply constraints and labour issues related with COVID-19.

For the Year 2020

Asia

The Asian Diammonium Phosphate market remained stable in Q4 2020, owing to strong demand from the fertiliser industry. Domestic supply of phosphate fertilisers in China was considered low before November, as individual firms were more likely to cater to worldwide demand in the hopes of better netbacks. Its imports from the United States had significantly decreased by November, resulting in a shortfall of DAP in a number of countries across the region. Furthermore, favourable weather conditions during the rabi season boosted its market sentiments in India.

Europe

Demand in Europe remained modest, as only a few nations participated in spot buying activities, while the majority remained quiet. Despite the fast spread of COVID 19, agrochemical production remained minimal due to transportation limitations. Several customers requested advance contractual purchases of the fertiliser in anticipation of strong demand in the spring season, which resulted in higher imports and prices towards the end of Q4 2020.

North America

The price of most agrochemicals accelerated in early Q4 2020 due to a lack of DAP and other phosphate salts in the region. The shortage was caused by a lower production rate as a result of damage caused by a series of hurricanes in October. Later in December 2020, demand remained strong, but supply shrank slightly, causing its prices to rise once again. Although, by the end of December, the month-over-month increase in regional production rates had steadily softened their pricing.

Latin America

After two years of decline, the South American diammonium phosphate industry was finally on the increase, with a target date of 2020. Consumption, on the other hand, showed a noticeable decrease. Mexico continued to be the world's top producer of diammonium phosphate throughout Latin America and the Caribbean.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of DAP (Diammonium Phosphate). Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.