Ethanol Price Trend Analysis 2026: Supply Demand Analysis, Latest News, Historical Prices, Price Drivers & Market Insights

• Global ethanol prices declined in Q2 2026 as strong production and adequate availability outweighed structural blending demand, while Brazil’s higher output added to global supply.
• Corn and sugarcane availability remained key feedstock factors, with Brazil’s Center-South ethanol output rising 31.55% to 7.5 billion liters in the first two months of 2026/27.
• Blending mandates remained the primary demand driver, while E20 and E85 expansion supported consumption; industrial and chemical applications provided additional demand across major markets.

Asia

In China, ethanol prices declined from ~USD 855.22/MT in April to ~USD 832.00/MT in June 2026, showing a ~2.7% decrease. Increased outward availability and reduced import dependence weighed on prices. China’s May 2026 unmodified ethanol imports fell 66.46% month-on-month to 8.24 tonnes, while exports surged 1,525.06% to 21,338.54 tonnes, indicating a sharp shift toward external supply. In India, the central government made 20% blending mandatory from April onwards, despite this the prices fell from ~USD 905.11/MT in April to ~USD 698.30/MT in June. Domestic ethanol capacity reached 20 billion liters/year against procurement of only 11–12 billion liters/year for E20, leaving an estimated 8–9 billion liters/year surplus. This excess availability outweighed strong blending growth and pressured prices.

Europe

European ethanol prices remained under pressure from increased import accessibility and concerns over domestic producer competitiveness. The EU-Mercosur trade arrangement opened ethanol import quotas from May 1, 2026, with prorated volumes of 33.333 million kg for general ethanol use and 75.000 million kg for chemical use. Potential E20 adoption provided longer-term demand support, with the transition estimated to add 3.2 billion liters of ethanol demand by 2030 under a conservative scenario. However, increased import access and adequate global supply limited near-term price recovery.

North America

In the United States, ethanol prices decreased from ~USD 692.09/MT in April to ~USD 660.30/MT in June, showing a ~4.6% decline. High production and sufficient inventories outweighed firm mandated blending demand. US fuel ethanol production exceeded 1.09 million barrels/day in late June, keeping supply ample. Corn remained a major feedstock, with ethanol and by-product use projected at 5.575 billion bushels for 2025/26 and 5.600 billion bushels for 2026/27. The renewable fuel mandate remained supportive, with applicable volumes set at 26.81 billion RINs for 2026.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, ethanol prices are likely to remain pressured by strong production and surplus capacity, although blending mandates and expanding E20/E85 adoption should provide underlying demand support.