Ethylene Dichloride Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Ethylene Dichloride in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Ethylene Dichloride Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Asia

The ethylene dichloride prices remained stable due to low demand and inventory destocking despite oscillating ethylene prices in the first quarter of 2024. The lower production rates across Asia, increased demand from PVC producers in south and southeast Asia, and higher freight costs caused by shipping disruptions through the Red Sea impacted the market.

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Further, the raw material industries only offered limited support discouraging higher ethylene dichloride production rates. However, one major unplanned maintenance in Saudi Arabia led to increased demand for ethylene dichloride spot cargoes across Asia. However, the return to normal production in Saudi Arabia in mid-quarter kept the ethylene dichloride requirements elevated.

Europe

In the German market, ethylene dichloride prices showed stagnancy supported by steady upstream ethylene prices and consistent prices in the downstream PVC market. However, residential projects saw a decline in February, leading to reduced construction activity and a subsequent decrease in demand for PVC derivatives, including ethylene dichloride.

The manufacturing sector also experienced a downturn, with a quick contraction in output and new orders. The declining new orders, further attributed to customer hesitancy and tight financial conditions, have impacted on the sector's overall performance. Moreover, high-interest rates and inflation have halted the property boom in Germany, further weakening demand and prices for ethylene dichloride.

North America

The US ethylene dichloride demand increased with stability in the downstream market and feedstock industries. This growth mirrors the trends observed in the PVC and automotive sectors during the first quarter of 2024. Despite a forecasted US GDP growth slowdown, the Federal Reserve introduced three rate cuts, diverging from previous hike trends.

On the supply side, there were no significant changes in production rates as the traders and manufacturers focused on destocking the existing inventories in the first quarter of 2024. However, expansions in polymer capacities drove demand amid lingering uncertainties due to export challenges exemplified by Panama Canal disruptions in 2023. The rising number of logistical challenges and loss of export volumes and its profit margin, however, exerted a negative influence on the market, limiting its growth potential.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Ethylene Dichloride is estimated to dwindle in the forthcoming quarters as the changing dynamics of consumer preferences and feedstock pricing will guide the prices in the forthcoming quarters.

Ethylene Dichloride Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

Asia

The Ethylene Dichloride’s market performance in Q4’23 was not very different from the previous quarter. The Asian Ethylene Dichloride market exuded borderline stagnancy in prices throughout the said period since the oscillations in the prices were confined within very narrow limits.

Even though the feedstock ethylene prices failed to provide any substantial upstream cost support, the inflated demands in the initial phase of the quarter because of the impending holiday season kept the prices a little firm at the beginning of the given quarter. However, the oversupplied inventories did worry the suppliers in the later months and forced some discounts to maintain the stock movement. General market sentiments were largely mixed throughout.

Europe

The European Ethylene Dichloride market’s performance was largely underwhelming for the majority of the discussed period. At first, the falling crude oil and feedstock ethylene prices considerably brought down the production costs, and second, the downward wavering demands from the consuming chemical, polymer, and pharma industries also didn’t help much in stabilizing the market. The European region was still struggling with the long-term consequences of the Russian war more than the other major global markets, so the price trend remained wavering for most of the said period.

North America

The American Ethylene Dichloride market closely followed the European market during the given period. Given the supply chain curtailments due to logistic issues, the international demands had already dipped. Further, the holiday season was impacting the domestic industrial demands, so the prices were largely found to be wavering at the lower side of the price curve.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Ethylene Dichloride price trend are projected to fluctuate in accordance with the volatile downstream demands and the feedstock prices in the coming months as well.

Ethylene Dichloride Price Trend for the July - September of 2023

Asia

Given the current global economic scenario, the price trend of ethylene dichloride remained somewhat stable throughout the discussed period in the Asia-Pacific region. The downstream demand from the PVC sector did not improve much, which in turn failed to provide sufficient support to the EDC prices. Further, weather disturbances like typhoons in various parts of Asia disrupted the logistics and led to over-stocking of products in the inventories. Moreover, some discounts were given by the suppliers, although within a reasonable range, to keep the market churning and in hopes of positive product movement.

Europe

Despite the revival of industries after the long COVID restrictions and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the trade sentiments were still below the optimum levels. Given the constricted purchasing power, the demand outlook from the downstream sectors, mainly the PVC market, was rather dull. Somewhat push was provided by the rising costs of feedstock material, but alone, they were not sufficient to boost the peaks in the price graph of ethylene dichloride.

North America

In line with the global outlook, ethylene dichloride (EDC) prices kept on the lower end of the scale throughout the third quarter of 2023. The high inflation and interest rates, coupled with lowered demand and overflowing inventories, caused the pricing fundamentals to suffer. Furthermore, various maintenance shutdowns affected the price analysis of ethylene dichloride.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) are likely to fluctuate further given the current market outlook amidst the low demands, overflowing inventories, and contracted purchasing power.

Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Ethylene dichloride had a mixed price run in the Asian market in the first half of 2023. Quarter 1 had a strong start with an inclining price trend as the demand from the downstream sectors improved. By the time the first quarter ended, the prices had plateaued as equilibrium was established between supply and demand. However, soon, the trend turned south, and prices started falling at the beginning of Q2.

Demands from downstream PVC and construction industries took a serious hit. Inventories were overflowing, and both the domestic and international offtakes declined. Suppliers had to cut down production in order to stabilize the market dynamics.

Europe

The European market witnessed an oscillating trend for Ethylene dichloride in H1 2023. Prices first inclined owing to the consistently rising demands amid constricted supply because of the port congestions. But as Q2 approached, the demands from the downstream construction sector steeply declined. This decrease in queries directly led to a fall in EDC prices which continued till the end of Quarter 2. The construction sector of inflation hit European economies could not sustain its rising momentum, thereby impacting the market fundamentals negatively.

North America

The American ethylene dichloride market behaved no differently than the international markets; the prices remained fluctuating throughout the said period. In Q1, the prices inclined, given the rising demands amid supply disruptions and labor strikes. But as Q2 arrived, the downstream demands plunged, and prices started falling. This falling trend lasted the entire second quarter as an increase in bank interest rates was detrimental to the buyer’s confidence in the market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, ethylene dichloride prices are expected to remain unsettled in the coming months. The markets will strive for stability, and growing downstream demand will continue to be the driving factor.

Ethylene Dichloride Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

The price trend for ethylene dichloride were kept towards the lower end of the scale during the said period. The falling prices of feedstock ethylene and chlorine did not provide the much-needed upstream cost pressure to maintain healthy prices.

The power rationing imposed by the Chinese government to tackle the heat waves limited the operating/production rates of the industries. Though it did not have any significant impact on the prices as the market offtakes were running dangerously low. The diminished demand coupled with over-flowing inventories caused the ethylene dichloride prices to crash in the market.

Europe

Ethylene dichloride prices kept falling in the European domestic market during the said period. The diminishing demand from the downstream sectors coupled with overflowing inventories caused the prices to decline further. The rising interest rates and increasing fears of recession further suppressed the buying capacity of the consumers thereby impacting the pricing fundamentals deeply. The fall in the Rhine River water levels hampered the movements of water freight causing delays in shipments.

North America

The price trend for ethylene dichloride in the US domestic market closely mimicked the global outlook. The lowered demand for PVC and allied products caused EDC prices to decline. Overflowing inventories, hiking interest rates, cautious buying activity, and limited transportation impacted the market equilibrium deeply.

Analyst Review

According to Procurement Resource, ethylene dichloride prices are expected to register some growth in the coming months. As the construction industry recovers from the turmoil of the last year, the gained momentum and newfound demand for PVC will likely cause the EDC prices to rise.

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

Due to lower consumer demand and weak market fundamentals in Q2, the price of ethylene dichloride in the Asian market decreased throughout the following months. Due to weak demand and unfavourable market mood, the price of ethylene also decreased in the area along with changes in the value of crude and naphtha.

Due to growing inventories and weak demand, feedstock ethylene bids in India have fallen precipitously, driving down downstream PVC prices. Reduced supply and demand imbalance led to stabilised price movement for ethylene dichloride as domestic Indian purchasers' buying sentiments turned pessimistic.

Europe

After reaching their peak in April of 2022, the prices of ethylene dichloride began to decline in the second half of the quarter. Although European EDC buyers were driven to the sidelines by inflationary tensions and excessive resin costs, which were most raised overall, this overloaded vendors' previous intentions to tighten their bids in May, considering lower EDC supplies.

Given the inflated levels and the fact that buyers only make purchases for their genuine needs, loosening demand appears to have been the main cause of the softening. June saw a slowdown in the downstream PVC market as a result of falling prices for the feedstocks ethylene and chlorine. Despite this, the costs remained high; nevertheless, increasing operational rates and promoting local interest lowered the cost.

North America

Due to increasing demand from the PVC market and downstream Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM), the price of Ethylene Dichloride increased during this quarter. Due to prolonged production and power outages in the local market, major companies' overall output of Chlor-alkali and other goods will be constrained for the majority of Q2 2022.

The interruption affects market sentiment by further restricting the availability of ethylene and chlorine feedstock. The supply of PVC in the downstream market was still constrained, and the operating costs of the manufacturing facilities were low. However, because of the weak demand for goods from international sources, US shipments to Asian and European countries fell.

For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

Due to a declining feedstock ethylene and chlorine market in India, ethylene dichloride prices (EDC) decreased as compared to the previous quarter. However, thanks to a robust downstream market, market sentiments improved in March, and prices climbed. Feedstock ethylene prices rose sharply in response to increased product demand and limited product availability in the region. Furthermore, demand for EDC in the region increased as a result of price increases.

The Asian market saw an increase in upstream crude oil prices as tensions between Ukraine and Russia grew. The price of the chemical in India was 788 USD/MT CFR Mundra at the end of the quarter.

Europe

With escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, ethylene dichloride prices soared in the European market. Spot prices had risen, and large plant turnarounds kept prices on the high end. With strong market emotions and limited product supply, feedstock ethylene and chloride prices also rose. Ethylene dichloride prices rose due to a lack of product availability in the local market.

However, logistical issues and rising shipping costs made exporting the goods to the Netherlands and Spain difficult. In Germany, the price of the chemical was 1052 USD/MT FD Hamburg at the beginning of the quarter. In terms of stocks, they were on the low end, with profit margins compressed, impacting downstream derivative market sales and revenue.

North America

Ethylene dichloride prices rose at the start of the quarter, but the slope decreased at the end of the quarter due to a depressed feedstock ethylene and chlorine market. Exports to Asia and Africa were also limited as a result of product oversupply and hoarding in these countries, lowering ehtylene dichloride prices. However, at the conclusion of the quarter, ethylene dichloride prices began to rise owing to substantial turnarounds that altered the pricing trend. The price of the chemical in the United States was 925 USD/MT FOB USGC at the beginning of the first quarter.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

Chemical water treatment and the PVC market saw increased demand in the Asia Pacific region in Q4 compared to Q2 and Q3. RIL said in October that it will build a chemical manufacturing complex in Abu Dhabi that would produce 940,000 MTPA Chlor-Alkali, 1.1 MMTPA Ethylene Dichloride (EDC), and 360,000 MTPA Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC).

Ethylene dichloride prices fell by 9.80 percent in December compared to the previous two months, to 945 USD/MT Ex-Chennai, from 1047 USD/MT Ex-Chennai in October. In November, upstream ethylene and chlorine both traded lower than in other producing areas due to declining oil futures and a pressured pricing environment in Asia. Low PVC demand and enough stockpiles with local dealers depressed market sentiments.

Europe

In Q4, the European EDC market remained strong, with demand increasing month by month and compared to previous quarters. Although demand remained strong, supply was constrained. In response to rising gas and energy prices, major chlor alkali producers imposed a premium on their goods.

Due to restricted supply and greater production costs, manufacturers of the feedstocks ethylene and benzene switched away from negotiation and instead hiked pricing. Despite the increase in effective capacity in this quarter, downstream PVC continued to develop gradually, and the market balance remained stable.

North America

In comparison to Q2 and Q3, prices in Q4 were high with robust demand, indicating that the downstream market was recovering. Ethylene dichloride prices reached their peak on November 26 in Germany, where they were hovering about 928 USD/MT-991 USD/MT FOB USGC. Several variables influence EDC demand in the US market, including supply demand fundamentals and manufacturing costs.

Prices were also boosted by a strong downstream PVC market. Hurricane Ida, which impacted much of the chlor alkali manufacturing on the US Gulf coast, also pushed up the feedstock costs. The imminent expansion of PVC capacity in the United States increased domestic demand while simultaneously providing an opportunity in a tight export market.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

The Asian market had reasonable demand for Ethylene Dichloride (EDC), but supply varied from nation to nation, causing prices to fluctuate as well. Prices in the Chinese market fluctuated dramatically over the week, with FOB offers averaging around 780 USD/MT in mid-February. While prices in the Indian market continued to rise as demand from the local market remained strong, a drop in raw material imports from the United States and Europe resulted in a product scarcity. Since January, the price of EDC has increased by 44.6 percent, settling at 735.7 USD/MT in March.

In Q3 2021, the Asian market for the chemical saw an exponential rise, fueled by rising feedstock prices. In this quarter, strong demand combined with restricted supplies of ethylene dichloride pushed up prices across the area. Costs of EDC rose in India this quarter, owing to rising feedstock ethylene prices and increased demand from downstream Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) producers. Furthermore, traders stated that some EDC plants in the region were offline owing to seasonal maintenance, resulting in a spike in its prices. As a result, Ex-Kandla prices increased from 719.66 USD/MT to 904.64 USD/MT from July to September.

Europe

During the first quarter, Europe saw a considerable scarcity of the feedstock ethylene, which was in high demand from other industries such as polyethylene. Due to unusual meteorological circumstances, imports from the United States were curtailed, affecting the supply of raw materials (such as ethylene) and EDC in the region. As a result of these reasons, the price of EDC had risen dramatically across the area. Furthermore, owing to force majeure at a large manufacturing plant with a capacity of 890 KTPA of EDC, imports from the Middle East were blocked.

In Europe, ethylene dichloride prices increased somewhat in Q3, owing to higher upstream ethylene costs and reduced imports from the United States. The downstream VCM and PVC segment's demand for EDC remained low, owing to numerous manufacturers' reductions in production rates due to the region's energy crisis in this quarter. Furthermore, an extravagant increase in transportation expenses and a significant lack of containers added to EDC's pricing trend jump. In September, FD-Hamburg prices ended at 745 USD/MT, up 40 USD/MT from July.

North America

Stable demand in the face of a severe scarcity caused ethylene dichloride prices to rise across the area this quarter. A winter storm along the Gulf Coast of the United States halted the output of many EDC manufacturing plants, resulting in a raw material scarcity for downstream chemicals such as VCM and PVC.

Several factories, including OxyChem's EDC capacity of 680 KTPA and Olin Corp.'s EDC capacity of 748 KTPA, were idled during this period owing to the climate disaster. As a result, prices increased by more than 30% and stabilised at 550 USD/MT by the end of March.

The market in North America saw an increased pricing trend in Q3 2021. The rise in prices was aided by its limited supply in the face of strong demand from the downstream Vinyl Chloride and other segments. During this time period, price volatility in upstream ethylene caused waves across the EDC market.

Because of the advent of Hurricane Ida, which imbalanced the demand and supply of EDC throughout the era, the industrial infrastructure on the US Gulf coast remained offline. As a result of the Ida hurricane, Westside Chemical announced force majeure on its two PVC manufacturing plants in Louisiana.

For the Year 2020

Asia

PVC prices in Asia increased owing to tighter supply caused by storm and hurricane-related manufacturing interruptions across the United States. Due of high demand, Asian PVC makers were required to keep more EDC on hand for captive usage. As a result, supply in Asia remained tight, with offers often rising over 230 USD/MT CFR Southeast Asia. In Q3, buyers, mainly from Southeast Asia, saw a considerable recovery as coronavirus-related restrictions were fully lifted, and downstream PVC demand from building and manufacturing activities was seen recovering strength.

Europe

The demand for European Ethylene Dichloride increased as downstream PVC manufacturers increased their usage on the basis of rising building demand, which had fallen sharply in Q2 due to the battered economics. A substantial rise in regional prices was prompted by a lack of export quantities while inflows from the US remained practically nonexistent.

Traders kept margins low since demand hadn’t yet reached pre-pandemic levels, despite worries of a second wave sparking new lockdowns in some states. FOB NWE EDC prices were estimated to be about 350 USD/MT, extending considerable improvements seen on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

North America

Throughout Q3 2020, the American EDC market remained very active, with regional manufacturers reporting a dramatic increase in buying behaviour in response to pent-up PVC demand, particularly from Asian markets. Hurricane Laura caused power disruptions in Lake Charles, delaying the start of many chlor-alkali facilities, producing a shortage of both local and export supply.

Olin, the world's largest manufacturer of chlor-alkali, was heard intermittently pausing chlor-alkali units to control costs and stocks. In August, Formosa Plastics USA announced force majeure on its PVC production plant when an upstream chlor-alkali mill remained closed for longer than expected, threatening an EDC supply shortage. After an unprecedented 70 percent drop in Q2 2020, ethylene dichloride prices soared off the ground.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Ethylene Dichloride. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.