Ethylene Glycol Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Ethylene Glycol in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

In the Chinese domestic market, ethylene glycol prices tipped towards the lower side. The falling prices of feedstock ethylene, sluggish demands from the downstream polyester and polyethene sectors, and the rising global recession speculations caused a massive dip in the price trends of ethylene glycol. Per ton price of ethylene glycol averaged 712 USD FOB Shanghai in the said quarter.

Europe

In contrast with the Asian market, ethylene glycol prices constantly rose in the European market. The volatile prices of crude oil caused the petrochemicals prices to rise. With the tightened supply, the rising demands from the polyester and filaments sectors further aggravated the case. This supply-demand mismatch caused the prices to inflate in the domestic market averaging CFR 1108 USD/MT Hamburg.

North America

The ethylene glycol market witnessed unprecedented volatility in the US domestic market. The soaring prices of feedstock petrochemicals and increasing demand from the end-user industries caused the prices to inflate. With the upstream sectors struggling to keep up with the market demands, ethylene prices averaged FOB 868 USD/MT US Gulf.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, ethylene glycol prices are expected to decline in the coming months. Given the current cautious wait-and-see attitude of the buyers owing to the looming speculations of a global recession will likely cause the prices to fall.

For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

The average price of oil-based ethylene glycol in China on March 31st was 5,200 RMB/MT, up 33.33 RMB/MT from the previous data cycle. In March 2022, ethylene glycol prices increased initially, then declined. The overall international crude oil was strong, corresponding to high naphtha and ethylene prices. Many terminals were too high after the increase in the first half of this month. The chemical's cost was under pressure to follow the increase in the second half of this month, but the rise was held back by sluggish demand.

North America

The chemical company Eastman announced a price increase of 0.12 USD/lb for the chemical in March.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

Increased exports from Saudi Arabia into the Indian domestic market, along with high inventory levels, resulted in an oversupply, which deteriorated market volatility in October. In H2 of Q4, lukewarm demand from downstream textiles exacerbated market pessimism. Ethylene glycol prices declined from 74910 INR/MT in October to 59620 INR/MT in December on an ex-location basis. In China, a lack of demand support and a decline in feedstock prices in the face of dropping crude and coal prices contributed to a depressed market mood during Q4 of 2021. On a FOB basis, the chemical's prices decreased from 1000 USD/MT in October to 841 USD/MT in December.

North America

The North American region's market attitude remained constant, as abundant production and slow demand from the downstream polyester sector-maintained market rangebound throughout the quarter. Prices of feedstock ethylene stabilised following a period of high volatility in Q3, as upstream natural gas prices stabilised since crossing USD 5 per MMBTU in October. Prices surged in October, reaching 837 USD/MT FOB; however, demand decreased in Q4's H2 period, resulting in a price reduction to 683 USD/MT in December.

Europe

Natural gas prices continued to rise, putting upward pressure on the cost of feedstock ethylene, which raised the cost of producing the chemical during the last quarter. Demand from secondary polyester and PET producers remained high in the fourth quarter, prompting market participants to maintain strong pricing for accessible in European markets. On a forward contract basis, the price jumped from 850 USD/MT in October to 970 USD/MT in early December. Shipping of the chemical from Asia to Europe remained sluggish as well, owing to high freight costs along the Mediterranean route.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

North America

North American production was halted as a result of the US gulf storm, which shut down over 68% of the US's output. Several major plants, including Indorama Ventures, Lotte Chemicals, Ethylene Glycol Global, and a few others with a combined annual production of 1,850,000 MT, were shut down due to the freezing storm. These shutdowns resulted in a regional scarcity of the chemical and a global shortage. Thus, ethylene glycol prices moved in lockstep which lingered around 1155 USD/MT in February 2021. Later in March, as US production resumed, the prices slowed.

Prices increased steadily throughout the quarter in the North America region, supported by increased demand from the downstream sector, while availability remained insufficient to meet the overall needs of the regional market in the USA. Major manufacturers attempted to increase plant utilisation rates, which had been low due to adverse weather circumstances in the previous quarter.

Additionally, Lotte Chemicals experienced an unforeseen plant shutdown in May due to a technical issue at their Louisiana facility. Meanwhile, overall supply operations in the United States were constrained during the quarter, while demand from downstream PET makers remained strong. As a result, ethylene glycol prices in the United States increased from 1364 USD/MT to 1440 USD/MT between April and June.

The price of the chemical experienced a significant increase in Q3 2021. By the end of August, numerous manufacturers were obliged to close their factories for about two weeks in advance of the Ida hurricane in the US Gulf Coast, as part of a contingency plan that resulted in a decline in the region's ethylene glycol production rates.

Major ethylene producers in Louisiana, including as Dow, Taft, and Shell, also placed a turnaround on their production plants, impeding the manufacturing of the chemical. Additionally, throughout the quarter, demand from PET makers remained strong. As a result of the tight supply and high demand, prices increased during the Q3. In September, US Gulf MEG prices settled at  870 USD/MT.

Asia

Demand remained strong across Asia, while supply remained constrained, supporting its prices. Reduced output and decreased imports from the United States, as well as premium imports from European countries, all contributed significantly to an increase in ethylene glycol prices across the region.

Plants such as Sanjiang Fine Chemicals, having an annual capacity of around 380,000 MT of ethylene glycol, declared a maintenance turnaround, while Far Eastern Union Petrochemical Ltd., having an annual capacity of 500,000 MT, also reduced its production capacities from 100% to 90% to protect margins. Additionally, due to the fact that some factories ceased production during the Chinese lunar holidays, which lowered their inventory, the average price throughout Asia jumped by more than 12% following the Lunar holidays. However, in India, prices increased 35.17% from January to conclude the quarter at 814.47 USD/MT.

During quarter 2, the demand varied by country in Asia. In China, domestic demand for remained modest to firm from downstream PET makers, despite enough supply to meet their domestic demands. Additionally, large Chinese manufacturers booked massive shipments for Europe in the interim. While the Indian market battled with low costs as a result of the country's pandemic effect, after reaching a low point, prices continued to fluctuate throughout June as a result of low adequate stock availability and variable demand from the domestic and international markets. Thus, following a few oscillations, prices in India stabilized at 745 USD/MT in the final week of June.

Prices of the chemical increased in the Asian markets in Q3 2021, owing to limited supplies and strong demand from downstream PET and Polyester film makers. In China, the market experienced a price increase due to congestion at numerous Chinese ports and lower production volumes in the latter half of the quarter, exacerbated by the energy crisis.

In India, prices increased as a result of the spillover effect from China's shipments to Europe, as well as the increasing feedstock values as a result of the enormous surge in crude oil prices. Additionally, the increase in offtakes from downstream sectors had an effect on the price. Price for Ex-Kandla was recorded at 823.44 USD/MT in September, indicating a little increase since July.

Europe

Europe had a chance to address supply gaps caused by the US market in the aftermath of February's winter storm interruption, which impacted overall Central American production. Following the hurricane that struck the US Gulf Coast, export demand on industry players increased significantly, primarily from Asian countries. Additionally, rising freight and container costs impacted upstream ethylene pricing, which ultimately resulted in an increase in ethylene glycol prices across the region.

During the second quarter, Europe experienced strong demand for the chemical. Europe imposed anti-dumping duties on Middle Eastern manufacturers in May, allowing Asian manufacturers to ship their wares to European clients. As a result, a huge proportion of cargo was also scheduled by Chinese manufacturers to meet total demand. Additionally, European countries faced high freight costs, which compounded the region's overall situation for the chemical.

In the EU market, the third quarter saw a slight increase in its price. Delayed imports from Asia due to congestion in China's ports, along with a container scarcity, contributed to the increase in the cost pattern in Europe. Additionally, high freight costs and strong demand impacted the price  in the third quarter. In September, prices were estimated at 970 USD/MT.

For the Year 2020

Asia

The Asian market reached a record high in 2020, owing to robust polyester demand and a tightening of cargo inflows from the US. Prices reached a near six-month high after many production cuts were made due to a wide ethylene glycol-naphtha spread. As the United States is the largest exporter of the chemical to Asia, repeated plant shutdowns in the aftermath of Hurricane Laura worsened this supply shortage. However, as new plants became operational in China during the year, sufficient production was seen.

North America

With the automotive industry reviving its market dynamics following a severe blow from the pandemic and lockdowns, demand increased significantly in the third quarter of 2020. However, the production cuts undertaken at several factories across the country in preparation of Hurricane Laura significantly reduced the region's export potential, resulting in lower revenues in comparison to the previous quarter. Traders were confident about increasing purchasing activity from eastern countries as they stockpiled items to alleviate supply shortages caused by China's October National Day vacation.

Europe

According to European Commission forecasts, the value of ethylene glycol manufacturing was estimated to be around 318.3 million Euros in 2020. Throughout the period under examination, the value of production had decreased. Despite Asia's bullishness, prices spiraled downwards. Contract pricing was on track for a double settlement in August 2020 and was likely to occur concurrently with a September 2020 first settlement.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Ethylene Glycol . Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.