Farmgate Milk Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Farmgate Milk in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

In China, the raw milk market stood firm during the said quarter. After the covid-19 pandemic, the Chinese dairy industry witnessed a collapse in demand and remained stagnant. Farmgate milk prices are still struggling in the domestic market due to the muted demand despite rising global prices. The prices went from 418 CNY/100kg in April 2022 to 413 CNY/100kg in June 2022.

Europe

The price trends for farmgate milk registered a continuous rise in the said quarter across Europe. The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine and the retaliatory sanctions by the West on Russia caused massive volatility in the markets worldwide. Europe witnessed a record-breaking rise in food and feed prices. Farmgate milk prices went from 45.96 EURO/100kg in April 2022 to 48.52 EURO/100kg in June 2022.

The increased input costs threaten the livelihood of dairy farmers and the European milk sector. The price of feedstock rapeseed meal surpassed 500 EURO/MT, thereby thinning the profit margins for the dairy farmers. In the Netherlands, the dairy farmers are forced to send the dairy cows to slaughterhouses due to the explosive rise in input costs.

North America

In line with the global trend, raw milk prices remained strong in the US domestic market. The prices went from 27.10 USD/CWT in April 2022 to 27.30 USD/CWT in June 2022.

For the First Quarter of 2022

Europe

Fonterra, a well-known New Zealand firm, upped the price it pays farmers for milk in February 2022, claiming a rise in worldwide dairy prices as a result of strong demand and limited supply. High feed costs in the United States and the European Union have harmed milk output, according to the dairy behemoth, and these conditions are projected to persist in the coming months.

Dairy demand continues to be strong over the world, while milk supply growth remains below average. Fonterra raised its farmgate milk price projection for from 8.90 to 9.50 NZD/kg of milk solid (kgMS) to between 9.30 and 9.90 NZD/kgMS. Currently, farmgate milk prices in NZ range around 72,96 NZD/100kg.

Asia

In the month of March, the Dairy and Cattle Association had warned that if grain prices and fodder exports continue to rise, pure buffalo milk prices would exceed 200 INR/L in Ramazan.  Rising grain prices and dairy product taxes had forced dairy farmers to sell milk at higher prices.

The association claimed that the farmgate milk prices are 150 INR/L, and that anyone selling it for less than that is selling adulterated or synthetically prepared milk.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

In the last quarter of the year 2021, and January and February 2022, the price of milk in India ranged from 52 to 60 INR/L. This equates to 0.80 USD/L. In the same time period, the price was about 1.89 USD/L in China. In India, the CPI for milk was 150 in 2020 and around 160 in December 2021.

North America

The price of milk and milk products in the United States increased by 6.66%. Prices all over the world continued to increase as a result of rising fuel prices and shipping costs.

Europe

In the fourth quarter, December's price was 2.47 EUR greater than November's (41.25 EUR/100 kg). This increase in milk prices was attributed the to decreasing supply, as well as favourable market trends in Europe and rising basic dairy costs.

Latin America

Argentine milk production increased on a year-on-year basis for the 29th consecutive month during Nov ’21, finishing up 4.5% and reaching a six-year high seasonal level. Despite increased feed costs and flat to slowly-rising milk prices, the USDA predicted that Argentine milk production would increase by 4.0 percent on a year-over-year basis in the calendar year 2021, as continuous herd consolidation was likely to preserve favourable margins for large-size dairies.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

In India, farmgate milk prices increased in 2021, particularly in the first and third quarter. Prices tend to fall during the winter months because output rises during these months. However, in the year 2020, supply did not peak as it had in prior seasons.

The reversal in seasonal trend, according to dairy commodities specialists, was mostly due to the lag-effect of the COVID-19-induced lockdown, which prompted the closure of eateries and outlets, hostels and canteens, as well as the cancellation of weddings and other public festivities. This led to a reduction in demand. Farmers underfed their livestock as a result of this demand loss and price drop. Thus, the price increased in January 2021, reaching 3,243 USD/MT.

In March 2021, the price of milk in India was 0.86 USD/L. There was a decrease in price of the dairy owing to things coming back on track after the lockdown. In China as well, the prices had decreased to 1.57 USD/L.  After an initial shock due to COVID-19, dairy consumption in China had started recovering with more people spending on food and beverages.

Europe

By the end of Q-3 2021, almost every country in Europe saw an increase in farmgate milk prices. Belgium increased the price from 32.87 EUR/100 kg in January to 47.19 EUR/100kg in September, while Germany increased the price from 34.71 EUR/100 kg to 41.46 EUR/100 kg from Jan-Sep.

In the Netherlands, prices increased from 34.25 EUR/100 kg to 43.72 EUR/100 kg.  Almost every country experienced comparable pricing fluctuations. These soaring prices were the result of the second wave of pandemic which induced a new set of lockdowns into action.

North America

In the USA, farmgate milk prices at the end of the first three quarters were, 17.40 USD/cwt in March, 18.40 USD/cwt in June and 18.70 in September. Due to covid, the restaurants were forced to close. Prices plunged, and the government's food box programme, which greatly benefited the dairy business, was terminated. Dairy producers also require manual labour to assist them on their farms, and the pandemic had created a labour shortage. In addition, as the cost of everything increased, the cost of animal fodder, energy, and labour increased as well.

Latin America

The price of milk in Argentina increased in 2021. Throughout the year, they were steadily rising. The yearly average was 26.44 EUR/100L. The poor financial status of Argentine dairy in recent months was responsible for this price increase. Local dairy organisations continued to protest, requesting that present price limits be modified or abandoned due to the current negative margins, particularly for smaller producers.

For the Year 2020

Asia

The average price for milk solids in China, for the year 2020 was 3.59-4.59 USD/kg. This was a significant increase over previous years' prices. This increment was ascribed to rising dairy prices in China as a result of rising demand for the product. Another factor contributing to the price increase was the public's belief that dairy intake can boost their immunity. Source.

In India, during the first quarter of year 2020, toned milk prices were raised by 3 INR/L, from 42 to 45 INR/L (0.60 USD/L), while double-toned milk was offered for 39 (0.48 USD) INR/L, up from 36 INR/L previously.

The main reason behind this was the declining milk production. It had been declining since April of last year (2019) due to high summer temperatures and lack of water, which was exacerbated by rain delays. The fiscal year's budget which came out the following February, didn't improve matters either. The onslaught of pandemic also stunted the operation plants. All of these variables together resulted in a rise in the cost of dairy and dairy production.

Europe

In 2020, the average price of milk in the European Union was 36 EUR/100kg. In Belgium, the price was 34.33 EUR/100kg at the start of the year in January, but by December, it had dropped to 32.59 EUR/100kg.

Germany, on the other hand, experienced a price increase from 34.92 EUR/100kg to 35.11 EUR/100kg, while Austria's price increased from 36.70 EUR/100kg to 41.41 EUR/100kg in the aforementioned time period. The price in France and Croatia remained relatively stable throughout the year, at 37.12 EUR/100kg and 34.04 EUR/100kg, respectively.

North America

In the year 2020, the average price of milk in the United States was 18.23 USD/ cwt (100 pounds). Source The price rise was because of the scarcity caused by the global supply chain interruptions due to the pandemic. Several American farmers were compelled to spill milk in their fields and kill their cows because they couldn't get their products into the hands of consumers.

Latin America

For the year 2020, the average farmgate milk prices in Argentina and Chile were roughly 23.51 EUR/100L and 32.40 EUR/100L, respectively. Throughout the year, prices in Argentina continued to fall. Argentina's fluid production reached its greatest level since 2015, thanks to strong peso pricing in the first part of the year and significantly better weather than the scorching, insect-infested summer of 2019.

Argentina increased its end-of-year output forecast for 2020 to 11.35 million metric tonnes (MMT), up 7% from 2019, and 250,000 tonnes higher than the USDA's official projection. Chile's dairy imports climbed by 7.5% in value in 2020, resulting in higher prices.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Farmgate Milk. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.