Fuel Oil Price Trend Analysis 2026: Historical Prices, Latest News, Price Drivers, Supply Demand Analysis & Market Insights

• Fuel oil prices declined across major regions in Q2’26 as supply-risk premiums eased after the early Middle East disruption, while buyers reduced spot purchasing.
• Lower refinery crude runs initially tightened residue availability, but later supply expectations improved as Persian Gulf flow concerns eased and inventories partially recovered.
• Bunker, utility, and industrial demand stayed uneven, with scrubber-fitted vessel demand supporting High Sulfur Fuel Oil, while weak ship fuel buying limited stronger price recovery.

Asia

In India, Fuel Oil prices were ~INR 84.68/kg in April and ~INR 73.74/kg in May, showing a ~12.9% decrease. The decline came after early-quarter supply tightness eased by mid-Q2. Middle East-origin barrels and blending components were disrupted at the start of the quarter, which tightened Low Sulfur Fuel Oil and High Sulfur Fuel Oil availability across Asian trading hubs. Singapore residual fuel inventories fell to 14.84 million barrels in June, showing tight regional stock cover. However, the market later softened as peace talks raised expectations of resumed Persian Gulf flows. China’s domestic ship fuel demand also stayed weak, with sluggish downstream buying and delayed replenishment by shipowners adding pressure. Firm bunker demand from scrubber-fitted vessels limited a deeper fall, but it was not enough to prevent price correction.

Europe

In the Netherlands, Fuel Oil prices were ~EUR 0.68/kg in April and ~EUR 0.60/kg in the subsequent month, showing a ~11.2% decrease. European fuel oil was initially supported by shortages of low-sulfur blending components and firm refinery appetite for lower-sulfur feedstocks. Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil blending became difficult as some blendstocks moved into refinery feed use, keeping supply tight in May. However, prices eased as the immediate risk around Middle East supply flows reduced and buyers became more cautious. The market remained exposed to import-route changes, but there was no broad consumer-level physical shortage. Softer prompt buying and improving flow expectations outweighed blending tightness, pulling prices lower through May.

North America

In the United States, Fuel Oil prices were ~USD 806.00/MT in April and ~USD 783.00/MT in the following month, showing a ~2.9% decrease. The market softened mildly as residual fuel oil supply improved during parts of Q2. U.S. residual fuel oil stocks rose from 21.778 million barrels in late May to 22.766 million barrels in early June, easing supply concern. Demand stayed choppy across bunker, industrial, and utility-linked users, which limited price support. Exports increased later in the quarter, keeping the market tied to Atlantic Basin demand, but domestic stock recovery and uneven consumption kept U.S. prices under downward pressure.