Crude Futures Firm on Spot Demand
Crude oil futures firmed amid firm spot demand, with both major global benchmarks edging higher in trade. Increased positioning by market participants reflected continued underlying demand support.
Fuel Oil Price Trend Analysis 2026: Historical Prices, Latest News, Price Drivers, Supply Demand Analysis & Market Insights
Written ByPragati Agarwal
Fuel Oil Latest Development
Hormuz Disruption Tightens Global Oil Supply
Strait of Hormuz closure continues to constrain global oil supply, with observed output remaining significantly below year-ago levels. IEA revised its demand forecast downward as inventories fell to multi-decade lows, reinforcing upward price pressure and market volatility.
Fuel Oil Price Trend Q3 2026
| Product | Region | Incoterm Basis | Price | Last Updated Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel Oil | North America | FOB | USD 568.00/MT | July 2026 |
| Fuel Oil | China | FOB | USD 609.00/MT | July 2026 |
| Fuel Oil | Europe | FOB | USD 529.00/MT | July 2026 |
| Fuel Oil | North America | FOB | USD 509.00/MT | June 2026 |
| Fuel Oil | China | FOB | USD 473.00/MT | June 2026 |
| Fuel Oil | Europe | FOB | USD 454.00/MT | June 2026 |
| Fuel Oil | USA | FOB | USD 508.50/MT | June 2026 |
| Fuel Oil | India | FOB | USD 867.53/MT | June 2026 |
| Fuel Oil | Netherlands | FOB | USD 466.50/MT | June 2026 |
| Fuel Oil | Canada | FOB | USD 523.50/MT | June 2026 |
| Fuel Oil | USA | FOB | USD 783.00/MT | May 2026 |
| Fuel Oil | India | FOB | USD 776.23/MT | May 2026 |
| Fuel Oil | Netherlands | FOB | USD 699.50/MT | May 2026 |
| Fuel Oil | China | FOB | USD 841.00/MT | May 2026 |
| Fuel Oil | Canada | FOB | USD 809.00/MT | May 2026 |
Stay updated with the latest Fuel Oil prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
- Fuel oil prices declined across major regions in Q2’26 as supply-risk premiums eased after the early Middle East disruption, while buyers reduced spot purchasing.
- Lower refinery crude runs initially tightened residue availability, but later supply expectations improved as Persian Gulf flow concerns eased and inventories partially recovered.
- Bunker, utility, and industrial demand stayed uneven, with scrubber-fitted vessel demand supporting High Sulfur Fuel Oil, while weak ship fuel buying limited stronger price recovery.
Asia
In India, Fuel Oil prices were ~INR 84.68/kg in April and ~INR 73.74/kg in May, showing a ~12.9% decrease. The decline came after early-quarter supply tightness eased by mid-Q2. Middle East-origin barrels and blending components were disrupted at the start of the quarter, which tightened Low Sulfur Fuel Oil and High Sulfur Fuel Oil availability across Asian trading hubs. Singapore residual fuel inventories fell to 14.84 million barrels in June, showing tight regional stock cover. However, the market later softened as peace talks raised expectations of resumed Persian Gulf flows. China’s domestic ship fuel demand also stayed weak, with sluggish downstream buying and delayed replenishment by shipowners adding pressure. Firm bunker demand from scrubber-fitted vessels limited a deeper fall, but it was not enough to prevent price correction.
Europe
In the Netherlands, Fuel Oil prices were ~EUR 0.68/kg in April and ~EUR 0.60/kg in the subsequent month, showing a ~11.2% decrease. European fuel oil was initially supported by shortages of low-sulfur blending components and firm refinery appetite for lower-sulfur feedstocks. Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil blending became difficult as some blendstocks moved into refinery feed use, keeping supply tight in May. However, prices eased as the immediate risk around Middle East supply flows reduced and buyers became more cautious. The market remained exposed to import-route changes, but there was no broad consumer-level physical shortage. Softer prompt buying and improving flow expectations outweighed blending tightness, pulling prices lower through May.
North America
In the United States, Fuel Oil prices were ~USD 806.00/MT in April and ~USD 783.00/MT in the following month, showing a ~2.9% decrease. The market softened mildly as residual fuel oil supply improved during parts of Q2. U.S. residual fuel oil stocks rose from 21.778 million barrels in late May to 22.766 million barrels in early June, easing supply concern. Demand stayed choppy across bunker, industrial, and utility-linked users, which limited price support. Exports increased later in the quarter, keeping the market tied to Atlantic Basin demand, but domestic stock recovery and uneven consumption kept U.S. prices under downward pressure.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, fuel oil prices are expected to remain range-bound, with Asian supply tightness and low inventories providing support, while stable refinery output in North America caps sustained upside.
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- Global fuel oil markets surged in early 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply disruptions affecting crude shipments.
- Concerns over navigation risks and potential congestion in the Strait of Hormuz elevated risk premiums, pushing international crude and marine fuel prices higher.
- Tight feedstock availability and shipping demand supported domestic fuel oil markets across major consuming regions.
Asia
In Asia, China’s domestic ship fuel market saw a sharp increase, with prices rising from about 0.76 RMB/kg (Spot) in January and around 0.89 RMB/kg in March. Early-year supply constraints, combined with rising international crude prices, drove market gains. Cold weather and increased coal transportation amplified demand for coastal shipping fuel. Singapore inventory data showed declining residual fuel oil stocks, reinforcing a tight supply environment. However, China’s domestic ship fuel market saw a sharp 15.1 % price increase from February to March. The rise was driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which disrupted crude flows and increased insurance and shipping costs. In India, marine fuel prices reflected rising crude import costs and seasonal shipping activity, with logistical constraints moderating extreme volatility.
Europe
In Europe, fuel oil prices strengthened as Brent crude rose due to geopolitical tensions and reduced OPEC+ output. Tight refinery margins and planned maintenance limited local supply, while increased imports from the Middle East partially offset shortages. Elevated crude feedstock costs, along with moderate demand from coastal shipping, supported steady upward pricing.
North America
In North America, US marine fuel prices tracked international crude trends, with WTI surging on Middle East risk premiums and disruptions from winter storms. East Coast ports increased fuel imports from Canada and the Caribbean to maintain inventory levels. Refinery utilization near capacity constrained local supply, amplifying sensitivity to international crude volatility. Downstream shipping demand remained stable but influenced by seasonal cargo shifts and inventory replenishment.
About Fuel Oil
Fuel Oil is any liquid fuel, obtained from petroleum distillation, that is burned in a furnace or boiler for generating heat or for use in an engine for power generation. Fuel Oil is obtained from the burnable liquids derived from crude oil. It is used to heat up homes and fuel trucks, light up furnaces, produce steam for industrial uses and for generating electric energy. It is used to run home heating equipment including furnaces and boilers and can be used to power different types of engines, lamps, and stoves.
Fuel Oil Product Detail
Industrial Uses
Electricity Generation, Machinery, Liquid Fuel
Synonyms
Heavy Oil, Marine Fuel, Furnace Oil
Supplier Database
BP plc, Exxon Mobil Corporation, PetroChina Company Limited, SINOPEC Fuel Oil Sales Corporation Limited, Royal Dutch Shell Plc
Regional Coverage
Asia Pacific
China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Thailand, South Korea, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, UAE, Israel, Hongkong, Singapore, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Australia, and New Zealand
Europe
Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy,Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Greece
North America
United States and Canada
Latin America
Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru
Africa
South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco
CurrencyUS$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)
Supplier Database AvailabilityYes
Customization ScopeThe report can be customized as per the requirements of the customer
Post-Sale Analyst Support360-degree analyst support after report delivery
Note: Our supplier search experts can assist your procurement teams in compiling and validating a list of suppliers indicating they have products, services, and capabilities that meet your company's needs.
Fuel Oil Production Processes
- Production of Fuel Oil via Petroleum Distillation
In order to produce Fuel Oil, the process of petroleum distillation is utilised. In this process, a fraction is obtained either in a form of a distillate or as a residue, which is further used to produce Fuel Oil.
Frequently Asked Questions
During Q1 2026, fuel oil prices in China showed a strong upward trend. Prices increased by 22.13% from January to March 2026, supported by firmer crude oil costs, stronger refinery-linked product pricing, and supply concerns in the wider oil market. The sharp rise indicated stronger buying sentiment for fuel oil during the quarter.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, fuel oil prices in China increased by 7.93% from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026. This reflected a stronger pricing environment compared with the previous quarter, mainly due to higher crude-related costs and improved downstream fuel demand. The Q-o-Q increase showed that the market strengthened beyond short-term monthly volatility.
The main factors affecting fuel oil prices in Q1 2026 were crude oil cost pressure and geopolitical supply risk. Fuel oil is directly linked to crude refining economics, so higher crude prices raised production costs. At the same time, Middle East shipping concerns increased supply-risk premiums, supporting stronger buying and higher fuel oil prices in China.
Major fuel oil markets include China, Singapore, the United States, India, the Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. Singapore remains a leading bunker fuel hub, while China is important for refining, marine fuel demand, and industrial use. Key companies include Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC, Shell, BP, ExxonMobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies, Vitol, Trafigura, and Reliance Industries.
A significant development in the fuel oil market during 2026 was the implementation of new MARPOL Annex VI Emission Control Areas (ECAs) in the Canadian Arctic and Norwegian Sea from March 1, 2026. The new regulations tightened limits on sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, and particulate emissions from vessels operating in these regions. As a result, ship operators increased their focus on low-sulfur and very-low-sulfur fuel oil procurement to ensure compliance. The policy change strengthened demand for cleaner marine fuels, influenced bunker fuel purchasing strategies, and reinforced the ongoing shift toward lower-sulfur fuel oil grades in global shipping markets.
Fuel oil is mainly produced from crude oil through atmospheric and vacuum distillation, residue processing, blending, and quality adjustment. Residual fuel oil comes from heavier refinery streams left after lighter products are removed. The value chain includes crude sourcing, refinery conversion, residue blending, sulfur control, storage, terminal handling, marine bunkering, industrial distribution, power generation, and final combustion use.
Fuel oil grades include distillate fuel oils, residual fuel oils, No. 4 fuel oil, No. 5 fuel oil, No. 6 fuel oil, high-sulfur fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and very low-sulfur fuel oil. No. 5 and No. 6 are heavier residual grades and often need heating before use. Marine fuel specifications are strongly shaped by sulfur limits, viscosity, density, flash point, and stability.
Fuel oil demand is mainly driven by marine bunkering, power generation, industrial boilers, refinery use, commercial heating, oilfield operations, and large combustion systems. Marine bunkering remains a major demand center because ships use fuel oil blends for propulsion. Industrial and power-sector use depends on price competitiveness against natural gas, coal, diesel, and alternative fuels.
A key 2026 policy development was the entry into force of new MARPOL Annex VI Emission Control Areas in the Canadian Arctic and Norwegian Sea on March 1, 2026. These rules tightened controls on sulphur oxides, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter from ships. The development increased compliance attention for marine fuel oil quality, bunker planning, and low-sulfur fuel demand.
Procurement Resource employs a structured methodology combining primary research, secondary market data, analytical models, and validation processes to assess fuel oil prices and trends. Price evaluations incorporate supply-demand dynamics, feedstock movements, trade flows, and value chain analysis, supported by continuous market monitoring to ensure accurate and reliable insights.
Our Price Analysis Methodology
About the Author
Pragati Agarwal
Senior Business Insights Analyst
Delivering price trend analysis and procurement market insights at Procurement Resource, with expertise in identifying commodity patterns, supporting purchasing strategies, and improving cost efficiency through actionable market intelligence.
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