Gold Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Gold in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Gold Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

The second half of the year 2023 witnessed a consistent rise in gold prices in all the major regions of the world. India is one of the biggest consumers of gold, especially for ornaments, as it is culturally considered auspicious here. So, the festival of Diwali and the long wedding season in the fourth quarter boosted the market price for gold, and the price graph showcased an inclined trajectory.

Gold Price Chart

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In the European gold market, the price trend witnessed a growing trajectory. The gold market is affected by fluctuations in the stock markets and the currencies, so any changes in dollar valuation affect the gold prices, too. Since the demand in the international markets was higher during this time, the gold prices saw an uplifting curve. In the European markets, the monthly average spot prices for gold went from around 1947 USD/Troy Ounce in July’23 to about 2042 USD/Troy Ounce in December’23, yielding an approximate 4% half-yearly rise in the region.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, given the Gold consumption patterns and a lesser return into circulation, the prices are expected to rise globally in the coming months.

Gold Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Gold observed fluctuating price trends in the first half of the year 2023; after slipping marginally at the beginning, the prices rose steadily till the middle of the second quarter after finally sliding in the latter half of Q2’23.

The rising trends were attributed to the growth in demand as the purchasing power improved with normalizing supply chains since the war between Russia and Ukraine extended beyond estimations.

In the European market prices averaged at around 1889 USD/MT during the first quarter and about 1978 USD/MT during the second because the inflation started subsiding in the US. After the US dollar started strengthening, the gold prices started falling by the end of the discussed period. Overall, mixed price sentiments were observed for gold throughout the said period.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, with stabilizing global trade sentiments, Gold prices are likely to oscillate within a narrow price range.

Gold Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Gold prices exhibited mixed trends during the second half of the year 2022. The market was observed to be very demand-dependent. In Europe inflation skyrocketed after Russia’s armed invasion of Ukraine, which altered the fundamental consumer sentiment as the purchasing behavior became very necessity centric.

So, as the food and energy bills rose, investments in gold became lesser, and due to declined demands, the prices slid, especially in the third quarter. These falling trends continued till the middle of the fourth quarter. Some recovery was observed in the latter half of the final quarter as gold prices rose in November and December’22. Overall, market performance was dull in H2’22.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Gold prices are going to continue rising as correcting measures are currently being undertaken to fight the mounting inflation.

Gold Price Trend for the First Half of 2022

Gold settled at 1817 USD/oz in the first half of the said year. As the Russia-Ukraine conflict developed further the investors sought high-quality liquid hedges amid rising geopolitical unpredictability, hence the price of gold climbed momentarily. But as the investors shifted attention towards the monetary policy and increased bond yields, gold lost some of its early gains.

Due to the struggle between an economy of high risk and rising interest rates, the price trend of gold stabilised by mid-May. The latter was a result of a combination of factors, including chronically high inflation and possibly positive consequences from the protracted crisis in Ukraine and its potential for global growth.

In June, gold prices continued to decline due to shifting inflation predictions and interest rate increases in important markets. In June, the SHAUPM in RMB declined by 1.3%, while the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD dropped by 2.2%.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

In Q4, the price of 24 carat gold was recorded at 45,550 INR/10g. The People's Bank of China performed a one-year MLF operation worth 500 billion yuan, with the interest rate remaining at 2.99%. MLF worth 950 billion yuan expired in December, and the central bank's RRR decrease took effect in December. The price had declined 6.63% since early 2021.

Europe

In Q4, European gold prices were at 1816 USD/MT in November and at 1782.02 USD/MT in December. The yellow metal benefitted from the regional currency's depreciation as well as the safe-haven demand.

North America

In Q4, average gold prices were at 1860 USD/oz in December. The US central bank's balance sheet had grown to USD 8.79 trillion as of December 22, 2021, up from USD 4.3 trillion in March 2020. This was a strong bull argument for gold in the medium future.

The metal’s long-term positive outlook had been shattered by the Fed's aggressive approach. However, inflation concerns and uncertainties around Omicron kept gold prices on the rise in the medium term. Inflation in the United States and changes in real bond yields were some of the catalysts for the gold surge.

Latin America

In Q4, gold prices were recorded in the range of 9250-10,200 BRL/oz. In Brazil, the market showed a higher price in November than in December, when it settled in the range of 10,000-10,200 BRL/oz. There were some restrictions due to the new variant of omicron, which halted the supply chain.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

In 2021, the Indian market revived from the COVID, with a market price of 46,150 INR/10g. Gold prices fell globally as a stronger dollar made bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies, and fears that the US Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy sooner than expected dampened the metal's value.

Europe

In Europe, gold prices remained between 1700 USD/MT and 1800 USD/MT. While the price appreciated by 4.3% in 2021, the prices revived compared to 2020, as the US dollar's weakening increased the price of gold for the first three quarters.

North America

In 2021, for the first three quarters of the year, average gold prices were recorded at 11750 USD/oz. Inflation fears and an aggressive US Federal Reserve (Fed) posture divided investors' views on the price trend. The global spread of the Omicron strain of the coronavirus boosted gold prices. The price dropped for the first three quarters, from January to July, and then rose at the end of September.

Latin America

The Jacobina mine in Brazil, owned by Yamana Gold, was the cheapest gold mine in South America. The mine's all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of 770 USD/oz in Q1 2021 benefited by the timing of exploration spend, which was lower in the first quarter but expected to go up in the second.

Lundin Gold's Fruta del Norte mine in Ecuador is in second place, with an AISC of 830 USD/oz achieved in Q1 2021, up 9% from Q1 2020.

For the Year 2020

Asia

In June 2020, Indian price of the metal was at 48339 INR/10g. The Chinese market was slow due to the pandemic, and demand declined by 28% in May compared to the same month last year. Total supplies declined by 7% in the first quarter of 2020. On the supply and demand side, the simultaneous falling trend in its supply and consumption was difficult to reverse in a short period of time.

Global gold jewelry demand hit a new low in the first quarter of 2020. China's demand decreased by 65% year over year in the first quarter. In the second quarter, foreign demand for gold jewellery was not very strong. Despite the fact that Chinese consumption was steadily improving, worldwide consumption remained bleak.

Europe

In 2020, the average European gold prices recorded were at 1750 USD/MT. Gold prices always gain when the world economy is in trouble. The post-Brexit economic uncertainty was likely to persist for some time, helping the price rise.

Because the United Kingdom left the European Union, many investors and economists had speculated on which country would be the next to leave. There were talks that the European Union could be disbanded entirely in the next few years. Investors had flocked to gold as a result of geopolitical anxiety.

North America

In 2020, the average North American price recorded was at 1736 USD/oz. Prices rose steadily from 1517.24 USD/oz in January to 1815.15.45 in December of 2020 as a result of COVID restrictions and a global shutdown. Gold and the US dollar showed an inverse relation. In 2020, the US dollar fell to its lowest level in almost two years against a basket of other currencies. The price was on the rise due to geopolitical tensions.

Latin America

In 2020, South American prices recorded were at 1700 USD/oz. Prices soared to their highest level in ten years, as a result of global instability caused by the Coronavirus and the global economic catastrophe. That increase sparked a new, more intense gold rush in the Brazilian Amazon, with businesses investing in high-tech equipment and low-cost labor.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Gold. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.