Green Ethylene Price Trend and Forecast

Green Ethylene Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Green Ethylene in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Green Ethylene Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

During H1 2024, green ethylene prices were under considerable pressure due to persistent oversupply and weak demand across key markets. In Europe, structural weak demand and supply length, exacerbated by a sluggish macroeconomic environment and volatile geopolitical conditions, kept prices low, even as rationalization efforts began with the closure of major crackers. However, these closures were insufficient to significantly alter the market's overall surplus. Similarly, in Asia, ethylene markets struggled with oversupply, compounded by high feedstock costs and poor derivative margins, which dampened buyer interest amid a slow post-pandemic economic recovery and high inflation. This ongoing supply length and weak demand outlook prevented any significant price recovery, with delayed startups of new steam crackers further highlighting the challenging market conditions.
 

Green Ethylene Price Chart

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In the US, ethylene prices remained stable despite various production disruptions, reflecting long market conditions and limited changes in downstream demand. While there was no significant new capacity or closures announced, the potential impact of the hurricane season and planned expansions of ethylene export terminals added uncertainty to the market. Overall, green ethylene prices in H1 2024 were characterized by sustained downward pressure across all regions due to oversupply and weak demand fundamentals.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Green Ethylene is expected to oscillate in a narrow range under the influence of improved supply across the globe and rising demand among the downstream industries.
 

Green Ethylene Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Industrial drivers of the ethylene market have been pushing toward eco-friendly methods of production in view of growing environmental concerns, regulatory pressures to minimize carbon footprints, and increasing consumer demand for eco-friendly products. Companies are investing in renewable energy sources, such as biomass or hydrogen, to power ethylene production processes while also exploring novel catalysts and technologies to reduce energy consumption and emissions, thereby promoting a more sustainable ethylene supply chain.

During the end of two quarters of 2023, the oil marketing companies in India raised the procurement price for ethanol derived from C-heavy molasses for the 2023-24 supply season, registering the highest increase in over five years. The reflection of this significant inclination in the prices of ethanol derived from organic sources led to an incline in the prices of green ethylene, too.

This move, announced by the oil ministry, was aimed at boosting ethanol production for blending with petrol, which is a part of India's strategy to increase ethanol blending to 20% by 2025. Furthermore, India, a major crude oil importer, seeks to optimize ethanol production from C-heavy molasses due to concerns over sugar output, halting ethanol production from sugarcane juice or syrup for the season.

C-heavy molasses, a low-sugar by-product of sugar refining, offers an alternative source of production over the traditionally developed methods. However, industry experts express skepticism about the price increase's effectiveness, citing competition from potable liquor, which may limit ethanol availability despite the hike and can thus affect the green ethylene prices negatively.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Green Ethylene is estimated to grow, not steeply but steadily, as the rising demand and large number of investments in the sector may influence the trajectory of prices positively.
 

Green Ethylene Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Green ethylene, which is produced using sustainable techniques such as biomass or processes powered by renewable energy, is becoming more and more popular in a variety of industries.

It is essential to the manufacturing of environmentally friendly solvents, sustainable packaging materials, and biodegradable plastics. Additionally, the changing perspective and rising concerns over traditional industrial practices have attracted a remarkable number of investments in this sector, helping it drive its market fundamentals.

During the third and fourth quarters of 2023, the green ethylene market gained investors' interest as a number of new operations were reported in the Asian, European, and North American regions. In the late months of H1 of 2023, Braskem, SCG Chemicals announced advancements in their green ethylene production plants.

The plant aimed at producing green ethylene via sugar cane and using the end product to synthesize bioethanol to cut down the dependency of the North American region on fuel imports from overseas producers. The green ethylene sector also gained popularity after the imposition of OPEC+ on the export rates of Saudi Arabia and the sudden avalanche in the import-dependent countries. These factors favored the northward movement of the green ethylene price trend during the H1 of 2023.

The trend in green ethylene prices in Asian countries such as India and China was also supported by the rise in government initiatives in this sector. The market received ample government funding and with the changing dynamics of the downstream ethylene-based industries, the prices of green ethylene faced upwards.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for Green Ethylene is expected to slowly improve in the upcoming quarters as the new age shift of global industries to bio-based products will boost the development of the green ethylene market.
 

Green Ethylene Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Green Ethylene is derived from green ethanol, which is sourced out of biodegradable raw materials like sugarcane, and corn. Green ethylene can be further polymerized to manufacture green biodegradable plastics.

After witnessing a surge in the first half of the year 2022, green ethylene prices finally started stabilizing in the middle of the second half. The fall in the feedstock corn and sugar prices was the major reason for price depreciation. However, the price trend remained positive as the demand dynamic remained stable and growing.

As the green movement has been gaining importance, the demand for eco-friendly substitutes of petrochemicals has been increasing, which called for a positive green ethylene market outlook.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for green ethylene are expected to remain positive, as the market demands are on the rise. More research for diversifying the source commodities and cutting upstream costs is underway thereby contributing to the positive outlook for the concerned market.
 

Green Ethylene Price Trend For the First Half of 2022

Green ethylene is referred to as ethylene that is obtained through renewable feedstocks. Bioethanol, which is obtained via renewable biomass like raw sugars, and corn, serves as the primary feedstock in the manufacturing of green ethylene. Hence, the price trend of green ethylene closely mimic the price trend of bioethanol.

The prices of bioethanol surged throughout the year’s first half as the prices of feedstock corn soared owing to trade restrictions and a lousy harvest in Latin America. In Asia, bioethanol prices averaged 1140 USD/MT Ex-Shanghai, China. While in Europe and the US, bioethanol prices averaged 1075 USD/MT( FOB Hamburg)and 775-870 USD/MT (FOB Texas), respectively.

Hence, due to the inflated feedstock costs amid the robust consumer demand and the increased focus on a carbon-neutral circular economy, the price trend of green ethylene remained on the higher side of the scale globally.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Green Ethylene. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.