Hot Rolled Coil Price Trend and Forecast

Hot Rolled Coil Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Hot Rolled Steel Coil in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

Asia

The price of hot rolled coil (HRC) in Asia observed a downward trajectory throughout Q3’24, largely influenced by the continued weakness in China's domestic steel demand. China's steel rebar and H-beam steel prices have fallen sharply, reflecting a broader slowdown in its construction and real estate sectors, which typically account for a significant portion of steel consumption. This has caused an oversupply situation, with excess steel flooding the international market and exerting downward pressure on prices across Asia.
 

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In addition to weak domestic demand, China’s ongoing financing restrictions on real estate developers have further dampened any potential recovery in the construction and infrastructure sectors. As a result, the demand for HRC, a key component for manufacturing and construction, remains weak. This ongoing oversupply and lack of robust demand has resulted in falling prices, and the general outlook for HRC in Asia is bearish, with no immediate signs of recovery.

Europe

The European HRC market has experienced similar challenges, with prices trending downwards in response to both oversupply from China and weak domestic demand. European manufacturers have faced increasing pressure as the continent struggles with lower industrial activity and economic uncertainty, particularly in sectors like automotive and construction, which are key consumers of HRC.

The EU market is also dealing with competition from cheaper Chinese steel exports, which have flooded the market due to a slowdown in China’s own demand.  The lack of strong demand across Europe, coupled with geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures, contributed to an overall decline in HRC prices in the region. However, the pace of decline in Europe has been slightly slower than in Asia, reflecting a more gradual adjustment to the economic headwinds.

North America

The HRC market in North America has been more volatile compared to other regions. After a period of stability and price increases driven by high domestic demand in the previous years, HRC prices have showed signs of oscillation in Q3’24. The U.S. steel industry has been impacted by high interest rates, which have stifled demand in construction and manufacturing. The high cost of financing has caused a slowdown in new construction projects, particularly in residential and commercial real estate, leading to fluctuating demand for steel products.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trajectory points toward a decline in HRC prices in the short term, with potential stabilization or mild recovery expected in the U.S. if economic conditions improve.
 

Hot Rolled Coil Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

Stay updated with the latest Hot Rolled Coil (PET) prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
 

Asia

Hot Rolled Coil or HRC is a type of steel product that is produced by heating steel above its recrystallization temperature and then rolling it into coils. HRC is capaciously consumed in the construction, manufacturing, and automotive industries. Since HRC is made from steel, the prices are often found following the feedstock steel prices along with the downstream demands from the consuming sectors.

During the second quarter of the year 2024, the hot rolled coils’ price-performance was observed to be below average in the Asian markets, especially the Chinese market; the monthly average prices went from about 570 USD/MT in January’24 to around 529 USD/MT in June’24. This marked a decline of approximately 7% in the Chinese HRC market over the said span of six months.

The Chinese market began the year on a lower note since the inventories had already bulked up with excess stocks since the beginning. The Real Estate construction sector was already struggling in the country. Overall, a dull market performance was witnessed for hot rolled coils in the Asian markets.

Europe

The European HRC industry behaved in a varying manner throughout the first half of the year 2024; the prices had a positive start in January. Limited supply kept European steel hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices elevated despite subdued buying, with Northern European prices continuing to climb slowly but traded volumes remaining limited. Buyers were only purchasing necessary volumes to avoid building stocks.

Deals for domestically produced HRC were mostly at the lower end of the price range. Demand from most end-user sectors, except the automotive industry, remained weak. As the quarters shifted, the price graph steadily became a little flattened. Prices got borderline stability at the beginning of the second quarter.

The trading activity was minimal due to public holidays in several EU states. Northern European mills aimed to keep spot prices high in anticipation of negotiations with the automotive industry for the second half of 2024, thus resisting discounts despite low demand. However, the suppliers were unable to sustain this momentum for longer times. Since the trade volumes remained undesirably low, the suppliers were forced to discount prices around the end of the second quarter because of high stock volumes and persistently low demands.

North America

Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices in the US declined throughout the first two quarters of the year 2024. The North American market experienced the largest decline, with prices falling substantially since the beginning of the year. Despite a brief increase in mid-March, driven by minimum price targets set by steelmakers like Cleveland-Cliffs and Nucor, the overall trend has been downward. Consumers have refrained from purchasing amid uncertain demand prospects, leading to downward price adjustments.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, given the current state of the HRC market, the manufacturers might undertake production cuts in the coming months to attempt to stabilize the global hot rolled coil markets. Not much improvement is anticipated in prices going forward.
 

Hot Rolled Coil Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

The H2 of 2023 began with the dull momentum of downstream industries, particularly the automotive and construction sectors, which resulted in the downfall of hot rolled coil prices throughout the third and fourth quarters. Another cause of the subdued market trend in the hot rolled coil market was the stagnancy in the growth of the industrial sector and rising inventory levels.

The economic challenges and rising interest rates further intensified the growing concerns of the traders. During the fourth quarter, consumer sentiments and the other parameters of the market remained on the lower end but the rise in production costs supported the hot rolled coil prices.

Europe

The European countries in the third quarter witnessed a rise in the supply of raw materials required in industrial production of hot rolled coil along with a fall in consumer demand. This imbalance in the supply and demand sectors and the sudden uptick in production cost raised traders' concerns as the market winds moved south. As compared to the third quarter, the fourth quarter trend of hot rolled coil prices was much more stable. Although surplus availability of the product remained a hot topic among the traders, movements in the downstream industries presented positive sentiments.

North America

Throughout the third and fourth quarters of 2023, the hot rolled coil price trend experienced a regular downward trend, compounded by several market parameters. The foremost of these is the reduction in purchase offers and limited spending budget of the consumers amid growing concerns about the economic stability of the region. The cautionary approach of the automotive industries and labor strikes further intensified the struggling market dynamics.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Hot Rolled Coil is expected to be on the lower end of the spectrum as the global fluctuations in the functioning of the downstream industries present a bleak condition of the market.
 

Hot Rolled Coil Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

The Chinese manufacturing sector was supported by the revival of infrastructure and strong production of hot rolled steel coils in the initial months of the first quarter. Some of the manufacturing units went under maintenance shut down in the middle of this quarter, which negatively affected the production rates, and due to high demand, the prices of hot rolled steel coils inclined.

The second quarter, however, struggled with the decline in the cost of feedstocks, festival season, and extreme rainfall that hampered the demand and consumption rates of consumers. These factors, along with the hike in inflation, resulted in the negative movement of hot rolled steel coils prices.

Europe

The first quarter witnessed a significant surge in the price trend of hot-rolled steel coils in European countries. The surge was accelerated by the limited supply and high demand from the construction and automobile industries. The traders also enjoyed the benefit of a lack of imports that decreased the competition in the market.

The initial months of the second quarter also worked on the same path. The second half of the second quarter, however, struggled with the declining economic trajectory and falling demand from the construction and automobile sectors, leading to the decline in the prices of hot rolled steel coils.

North America

The first quarter of hot rolled steel coils prices imitated the trend shown in the European and Asia-Pacific countries. In the US, the trend inclined with the support of rising prices of feedstock materials and an increase in the number of inquiries from the downstream sectors. The second half of the second quarter witnessed a change in winds as the plunging economic conditions increased instability in the prices of hot rolled steel coils that further worsened the debt crisis and inflation rate hike. The consumers, thus, were reluctant to place orders in bulk, resulting in a decline in the price trend of hot rolled steel coils.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Hot Rolled Steel Coils is expected to follow a southwards trajectory due to the decline in consumer demand and weak growth of the economy.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Hot Rolled Coil. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.