Lactose Price Trend and Forecast

Lactose Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Lactose in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Lactose Price Trend for the First Half of 2025

During the first half of 2025, lactose prices showed mixed movement, shaped by evolving milk supply conditions, shifting feedstock costs, and uneven global demand. At the start of the year, milk production remained under pressure in several regions, particularly in Europe and Asia, where weather-related challenges and cautious farm spending limited growth in output. This continued to restrict the availability of milk derivatives like lactose, lending some early firmness to prices in Q1.
 

Lactose Price Chart

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In North America, milk yields began to stabilize slightly by late Q1, supported by easing energy and input costs, while logistical challenges started to ease. However, demand from key sectors like infant formula, pharmaceuticals, and food remained moderate, with buyers still relying on inventories built up during late 2024. Similar trends were seen in Asia-Pacific, where lactose consumption was relatively soft due to cautious procurement and limited seasonal demand triggers after Q1 holidays.

In Q2, lactose prices came under mild downward pressure as feedstock (milk) supply improved in some exporting regions. Falling corn prices in countries like India helped reduce overall production costs for syrup-based derivatives, which in turn influenced broader dairy markets by tempering input-related price hikes.

Meanwhile, ample inventories and flat buying interest across Europe and Asia added to the softer tone, especially in May and June. Buyers continued to operate on a just-in-time basis, avoiding long-term commitments amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Lactose prices may remain rangebound in early H2’25, with any upward movement likely tied to stronger milk demand or seasonal restocking from the pharmaceutical and nutrition sectors.
 

Lactose Price Trend for the Second Half of 2024

In the second half of 2024, lactose prices showed a pattern of mild volatility, shaped by both supply constraints and changing global demand. The tight milk supplies that defined the first half of the year continued into Q3, especially in Europe and North America, where poor weather earlier in the year had delayed forage growth and limited yields. Although cow numbers remained stable, the recovery in milk output was slower than expected. This kept lactose supply relatively tight and supported firm prices through most of Q3.

Demand in Q3 was generally steady, boosted by stockpiling from food and pharmaceutical industries in anticipation of the holiday season. Concerns over shipping delays, labor strikes, and geopolitical tensions especially in North America and Europe led many buyers to secure inventories early. These movements helped maintain upward pressure on lactose prices, especially as manufacturers faced higher logistics and input costs.

However, in Q4, the market began to shift. As with glucose, lactose demand started to soften toward the end of the year. Inflation, weaker consumer sentiment, and inventory saturation in some regions led to cautious purchasing behaviour. Additionally, easing supply chain issues and lower feed costs improved milk margins slightly, allowing for a modest recovery in milk output. These factors contributed to a slight correction in lactose prices by December, although levels remained above the lows seen in 2023.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Lactose prices are expected to stay relatively stable in early 2025, with mild upward movement possible if milk production remains limited and global demand picks up gradually.
 

Lactose Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

During the first half of 2024, lactose prices showed a slow but steady upward trend, mainly due to tightening milk supplies and rising production costs. Early in the year, prolonged wet weather from late 2023 into spring delayed cow turnout and slowed grass growth across key dairy regions like Great Britain. These conditions impacted milk yields right from January, leading to reduced availability of milk-derived byproducts such as lactose.

Despite stable cow numbers in the UK and other major milk-producing regions, yields per cow were lower, driven by poor forage conditions and a sluggish start to the silage season. This supply-side pressure was reflected in consistently lower milk deliveries, which remained below previous years' levels throughout H1. By May, milk production had dropped to its lowest level since 2016, confirming ongoing challenges for dairy processors.

On the demand side, global lactose consumption remained fairly muted. Buyers held back due to sufficient inventories and macroeconomic uncertainty, especially in export-heavy markets. However, the limited availability of fresh lactose production prevented prices from falling and instead helped them gradually climb, even if momentum was slow. Similar to other dairy commodities, lactose was influenced by the broader equilibrium of weak supply balanced by hesitant demand.

At the same time, rising input costs especially labour and feed added financial strain on dairy farms, discouraging aggressive production increases. These pressures supported a mild but consistent rise in lactose prices through the first two quarters.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Lactose prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, with modest increases likely if milk yields remain tight and demand gradually improves.
 

Lactose Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

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Lactose price trend was observed to be surging for the most period of H2’23. In the US market, the monthly average prices for lactose registered a growth of about 35% over the discussed span. The prices went from about 434 USD/MT(contract FD) in July’23 to around 595 USD/MT in December’23.

The primary reason behind the experienced surge in the lactose market was the drastic incline in milk prices during this time. Since lactose is milk sugar and is directly sourced from milk, the price trends for both are also closely aligned. Global milk consumption has been rising, and it surged even more during the holiday season of Q4 2023. With this, the upstream cost for lactose shot up, and along went the market prices. Overall, a very positive market performance was witnessed in H2’23.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the market projections for Lactose are positive for the coming months. Since the milk prices are rising, the lactose price trends are also expected to rise going forward.
 

Lactose Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Lactose is the milk sugar that is derived from whey solution, so its prices vary heavily with the fluctuations in milk prices and consumer demands. In the first two quarters of 2023, the price trend for Lactose were observed to be oscillating on the lower end for Lactose.

In the American Lactose market, the average prices went from around 1027 USD/MT (Contract FD) to about 496 USD/MT (Contract FD) in June’23, registering an approximate decline of about 51%.

This crash in the market was majorly owed to the sluggish demand sentiments in both domestic and international markets. Since veganism is on the rise, unpopularizing all dairy-related products and lactose intolerance being a commonly found disorder, the Lactose market was heavily impacted. As the stocked inventories were high and offtakes declined constantly, a steep downward movement in prices was seen. Overall, a negative market sentiment was observed.

Analyst insight

According to Procurement Resource, Lactose prices are expected to continue facing this peril since such price depreciation is forcing stakeholders to pull out the investments. Further, the suppliers will be keen to get the inventories vacated, which will force them to discount the prices.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Lactose. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.