Lead Price Trend and Forecast

Lead Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Lead in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Lead Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

Asia

In China, lead prices experienced an upward trend in the first half of 2024. This increase was primarily driven by a significant decline in the supply of lead, with reduced domestic production from both primary and secondary sources. Imports of lead concentrates into China also fell sharply, leading to tighter market conditions.
 

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Additionally, the lower availability of refined lead metal in the domestic market and a substantial decline in net exports contributed to the heightened prices. Meanwhile, the rest of Asia saw mixed trends. While countries like Japan and South Korea showed increased usage of refined lead metal, other regions, such as Thailand, experienced lower demand, creating a varied market dynamic across the continent.

Europe

The European market witnessed a downward pressure on lead prices during H1 2024, mainly due to reduced consumption of refined lead metal in key countries. Usage in Europe fell, primarily influenced by lower demand in the automotive and battery sectors. Despite increases in production in countries like Bulgaria and Italy, these were not enough to offset the overall reduction in demand. Additionally, disruptions in supply chains and economic uncertainties contributed to the subdued pricing environment for lead across the region.

North America

The lead market reflected a mixed picture, with supply increases in some regions balanced by declines in others. The modest rise in world lead mine production was insufficient to counterbalance the overall dip in refined lead usage, leading to varied regional trends in price dynamics during H1 2024. In North America, lead prices followed a similar downward trajectory. The market was affected by reduced usage of refined lead metal, particularly in the United States. The slowing demand in key sectors, such as automotive batteries, added to the downward price pressure. However, some resilience was observed in Mexico, where there was a slight increase in demand year-on-year, providing some support to prices but not enough to change the overall trend.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Lead is expected to witness a declining momentum in the next quarters, with rising skepticism of the downstream battery industries over its usage in the sector and the influx of excessive supply of the commodity in the market.
 

Lead Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

In Asian countries, the price trend of lead registered a significant improvement as compared to previous quarters. The surge in market prices during the initial phase of H2 of 2023 was based on the rise in demand from the downstream lead battery industries and the automotive sector.

Another factor that favored this rise in the prices was the limited availability of the material in the Asian markets and the reduction in the number of overseas shipments reaching the Asian ports due to the disruption of the Red Sea route. However, the momentum of the market slowed down slightly in the fourth quarter as the manufacturers enhanced their production rates in accordance with the projected demand for lead, but still, the demand overpowered the supply rates and kept the prices of lead moving forward.

Europe

The lead market of European countries seemed to bear the consequences of the ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from the feet of the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas crises. This led to a limited influx of raw materials required for the smooth functioning of downstream industries and even the trading activities of the region. The upturn in the market activities thus caused the inventories to shoot up, keeping the prices on the lower end of the spectrum.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Lead is estimated to follow an oscillating trend in the upcoming quarters as the global demand for lead seems to be fluctuating.
 

Lead Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Stay updated with the latest Lead prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
 

Asia

Lead prices fluctuated in the first half of the year 2023 in the Asian markets, especially the Indian market. The first quarter was more or less stable as the prices dipped and rose back within an extremely narrow margin. However, the second quarter witnessed a marginal fall. With an overall approximate 2% depreciation, the average monthly prices in India went from about 2345 USD/MT in January’23 to around 2298 USD/MT in June’23 in the Indian domestic market.

These market trend suggest moderate industrial activity along with a healthy supply and demand balance. Since the trade sentiments have been pivoting to India to fulfill the global supply gaps, trading activities have been rising in the lucrative consumer market.

Europe

Mimicking the Asian market, the lead price trend oscillated within a limited range in the European market as well. The trade consequences of the Russia and Ukraine conflict were steadily subsiding. Supply chains were being restored, and manufacturing activities were also warming up slowly. However, the pace of recovery was still in question since the end consumer demands were still struggling.

A long run of inflation had worn out the purchasing capacities. After some upward jumps in the first quarter, the lead prices decelerated by approximately 4% and went down from the monthly spot average of around 2188 USD/MT in January’23 to about 2086 USD/MT in June’23. Overall, mixed market sentiments were observed.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, improvement is expected in the lead market trend going forward since the struggling market will seek normalization.
 

Lead Price Trend For the Second, Third and Fourth Quarters of 2022

Lead is a soft, grey, and malleable metal located in the carbon group of the periodic table. The fundamental usage of lead comes in making batteries. Other sectors like cable, machinery, manufacturing, ship making, radiation, testing, etc., also aid the lead market demands. During the said period of 2022, the lead prices fluctuated continuously in the global markets.

The second quarter was a little firm since the lockdown was revoked in China, and the demands saw a marginal rise. However, the third quarter again saw a decline in prices as the recovery was slow and industrial consumption was still uncertain. The lead prices almost plateaued by the time the fourth quarter arrived. The demands were driving these narrow-ranged price fluctuations in the lead market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, given the slow pace of global industrial development, not much improvement is anticipated in the global lead market.
 

Lead Price Trend For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

Domestic lead prices fell after the Chinese New Year holidays, dragged down by falling LME lead, and spot lead prices fell below 15,000 RMB/MT to 14,800 RMB/MT. Later, prices recovered due to the cost support of secondary lead, and they rose at the end of the month as a result of the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The Russia-Ukraine war tightened energy supply, and higher raw material costs due to the VAT on lead-acid battery scrap kept lead prices rising into March. The price of base metals rose across the board amid strong bullish sentiment, with nickel leading the way.On March 8, the LME and most-traded SHFE lead contract both reached highs of 2,700 USD/MT and 16,465 RMB/MT, respectively. After the LME and SHFE tightened regulations to stem the irrational price surge, base metals prices fell and were once again dominated by fundamentals.
 

Lead Price Trend For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

In Q4 2021, Chinese ingot average prices were recorded at 2350 USD/MT. As stockpiles declined, refined lead prices jumped almost 4% in the final week of December, but lead prices had already achieved their peak. Several smelters of this metal were executing maintenance operations, resulting in smaller ingot inventories. As a result, prices increased, but now that secondary smelters are resuming operations, lead prices may be under pressure.

Europe

In the final quarter, average lead prices were recorded at 2255 USD/MT. Metals production was hampered by a lack of electricity and exorbitant costs in Europe, which drove up LME prices of the metal and compensated for losses during the Chinese New Year break. For a week, Europe's power supply was short, while LME lead supplies remained stable, despite China's planned lead ingot exports to Europe. The LME price stayed unchanged at 2,300 USD/MT.

North America

China's rapid expansion in inventories was spurred by aggressive secondary lead capacity development and significant tolling activity at Chinese smelters. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's warehouse stockpiles hit new highs this year, reaching 200,000 MT. Increased price fluctuation and smelter outages generated shortages abroad, but high shipping charges and container constraints kept the surplus in China.

Physical premiums in the US reached multi-year highs, while supplies in the LME warehouse network reaching 12-year lows. According to the worldwide supply-demand model, the refined lead market dynamics will gradually rebalance during 2022, following the minor surplus that developed in China this year.
 

Lead Price Trend For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

In the first half of 2021, the average price of ingot was 2360 USD/MT in China. The country shipped 15,545 metric tonnes of refined lead in September, the greatest volume (shipment) since 2007. Inventories reached a new high in 2018, placing a lot of strain on the supply side.

However, as delivery sources dried up and demand slowed during the off-season, stockpiles of final products at battery manufacturers continued to build in 2021. Users further downstream made low-cost purchases. Primary smelters of this metal benefited the most from byproducts as the TCs continued to fall. Although Jinli was being serviced, the production remained unaltered.

Europe

The market price for the first half of the year was recorded at 2200 USD/MT. An increase in usage was witnessed in Europe. Lead prices had grown by more than 7% on the international market since the beginning of the year, but they had fallen by the end of the year as supplies improved. In the second half of 2021, increased recycling of vehicle batteries boosted secondary lead production or recycling.

North America

Despite the fact that the United States contributes for only 13% of global demand, the end of COVID-19 lockdowns increased the metal’s consumption as motorists sought replacements for lead-acid batteries that had died after extended periods of inactivity. The metal’s pricing forecast for the year was increased to 2,200 USD/MT from 2,125 USD/MT, citing the average price of 2,316 USD/MT in November and December. Rising vehicle prices began to have an impact on worldwide automobile manufacturing during the next several months, stopping the rise in consumption.
 

Lead Price Trend For the Year 2020

Asia

In 2020, average lead ingot prices were recorded at 2135 USD/MT in China. Because of increased output in the automobile sector, which pushed demand for new batteries, domestic lead scrap and ingot prices in India climbed by 1-3% in August 2020. A 3% increase in formal three-month LME prices to 1,981 USD/MT also helped strengthen domestic pricing.

The smelters in Mumbai and Delhi increased output to meet surging demand from the automobile industry. Automakers predicted pent-up demand over India's upcoming Christmas season. With more demand on the horizon, smelters raised bids steadily, resulting in a price increase of 3,000-4,000 INR/MT in cities like as Mumbai and Delhi. Since mid-July, the price of re-melted and purified lead had been rising, placing ingot makers in a good position.

Europe

In 2020, average lead prices were 1860 USD/MT in Europe. The metal had been missed previously and was now slipping behind. On the other hand, the pace and strength of the metal’s rally had been fairly unexpected. Berzelius Stolberg, Europe's largest primary lead smelter, declared in December 2020 that metal supply from its facilities in western Germany would be halted due to force majeure.

North America

The US market tightened after Doe Run closed its smelter in Herculaneum, Missouri, in 2013 and Glencore closed its Brunswick smelter in Canada in late 2019. During and after the Covid-19 epidemic, labour shortages, general material scarcity, transportation limits, and the high cost of freight overseas worsened the tension. As a result of these reasons, premiums remained high.

The increase in the price came at a time when the lead and battery supply chain was struggling to refill automotive lead battery inventories in various parts of the world. Despite new environmental regulations, the use of refined lead in the global automotive industry has continued to grow in the United States.

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