m-LLDPE (Metallocene Polyethylene) Price Trend and Forecast

m-LLDPE Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of m-LLDPE (Metallocene Polyethylene) in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

M-LLDPE Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

Asia

In Asia, the mLLDPE market saw a period of relative stability but with a slight downward trend. Early in the quarter, prices in China showed signs of weakening, largely influenced by declining crude oil prices. The drop in oil prices impacted the cost of feedstock ethylene, which is crucial for mLLDPE production, leading to a slight easing of prices in the region. In particular, the Chinese market saw moderate price reductions, as demand from downstream industries, especially packaging and construction, remained subdued.
 

m-LLDPE (Metallocene Polyethylene) Price Chart

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The monsoon season in Southeast Asia further dampened demand, particularly in the construction sector, where activity typically slows during this period. In addition, the availability of container shipments gradually improved throughout the quarter, which led to a decrease in freight rates. This development made imported materials more competitive in the market, particularly from the Middle East and Northeast Asia. Despite these favorable logistics conditions, many buyers in Asia adopted a cautious approach to purchasing, anticipating further price declines. By mid-quarter, many suppliers had already fulfilled their shipment commitments for August, leaving the market relatively quiet.

Europe

In Europe, mLLDPE prices followed an upward trajectory during the third quarter, driven by significant supply constraints despite weak demand from key downstream sectors like construction, automotive, and packaging. The summer months, which traditionally see a lull in market activity, further dampened demand. Many market participants stepped back from active trading, contributing to the sluggishness in demand across the continent. However, supply-side issues kept prices elevated throughout the quarter.

The supply of mLLDPE in Europe faced disruptions due to reduced import volumes and domestic production challenges. The ongoing Red Sea crisis complicated shipping routes, forcing vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. This led to longer transit times and congestion at key transshipment hubs, exacerbating the supply shortage in Europe. These logistical challenges were compounded by low ethylene availability, driven by reduced output at key European naphtha crackers. The rising cost of feedstock naphtha further contributed to the higher production costs for mLLDPE, which ultimately translated into elevated prices.

North America

In North America, the mLLDPE market experienced a mix of stabilization and minor price decreases after previous supply disruptions caused by Hurricane Beryl. In the early part of the quarter, market sentiment was cautious as participants assessed the impact of the storm on production and logistics. Despite continued tightness in material availability, trading activity slowed down, and market sentiment became more cautious. As the quarter progressed, production and logistics began to normalize, allowing for a more stable flow of supply into the market.

This normalization helped ease some of the upward price pressures that had been building in previous weeks. However, other factors, including escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and volatility in monomer markets, contributed to uncertainty in the market. Downstream demand in North America remained moderate, particularly in the construction and packaging sectors. The quarter ended with expectations of continued stability, although the potential for future price movements depended on the recovery of downstream demand in key sectors.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of M-LLDPE is expected to move northwards with a-moderate support from key market players.
 

Metallocene Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (m-LLDPE) Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Asia

The Asian market, particularly in China, maintained stability in mLLDPE prices throughout the second quarter of 2024. The balanced supply and demand scenario was balanced by steady demand from the downstream construction market and adequate supply, which helped maintain price stability. The rising upstream crude oil prices and increasing freight rates added to overall market cost pressures, while feedstock ethylene prices stayed unchanged.

The region also faced logistical challenges due to fluctuating freight rates and ongoing global supply chain changes. The suppliers, therefore, struggled to secure vessel bookings amid a persistent shortage of container space, complicating delivery schedules. Despite these supply constraints, traders managed to keep prices consistent as domestic stock levels remained firm.

Europe

In Europe, the mLLDPE market faced a bearish trend largely due to weak demand and an oversupply situation. Despite stable feedstock ethylene prices, the market remained saturated with sufficient inventories to meet the current demand from downstream sectors such as construction, packaging, and automotive. This oversupply was further exaggerated by a steady flow of imports from the USA and the Middle East.

Even though producers attempted to reduce production and managed both planned and unplanned plant outages, the surplus in mLLDPE supplies persisted throughout the second quarter of 2024. Additionally, higher logistics costs and delays further challenged the European market, especially as cargoes were diverted, making imports from Asia more expensive for European converters.

North America

The North American market saw a notable surge in mLLDPE prices towards the later end of the second quarter, driven by improved trading activity and consistent demand for the commodity. The domestic market experienced escalating sales figures and strong export demand, which significantly boosted transaction levels. Further, polyethylene trading dominated in volume, with buyers and sellers engaging actively, leading to quick material exchanges and rising prices.

The export market faced upward pricing pressure due to high freight rates out of Asia, while ocean freight from the US remained relatively inexpensive, creating favorable trade conditions for North American resin producers. The rising costs of feedstock ethylene and upstream crude oil further increased cost pressures on mLLDPE, contributing to the price surge.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Metallocene Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (m-LLDPE) is expected to be driven by the rising cost of feedstock commodities and escalating demand from the downstream industries.
 

m-LLDPE (Metallocene Polyethylene) Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

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Asia

In China, the mLLDPE market witnessed a surge in prices initially, which later stabilized as trading activities slowed down in anticipation of the Lunar New Year holiday. The downstream factories began shutting down during the early phase of the quarter, led by reduced demand. Despite the current slowdown, optimism prevailed for post-holiday demand recovery, especially with the peak season for downstream agricultural films in March.

The positive macroeconomic developments also improved the overall dynamics of the market, although the buyers remained cautious even after the holiday season. However, in the later stages of the quarter, the traders significantly raised their quotations of mLLDPE with the rising interest of overseas players and limited export rates. Additionally, import availability of mLLDPE from the Middle East was constrained due to ongoing maintenance turnarounds in the region, further impacting the market dynamics of mLLDPE.

However, in India, the market experienced some oscillations, which eventually resulted in a slight decline in the mLLDPE pricing patterns from an average of 1294 USD/MT to 1288 USD/MT (CFR) during the first quarter of 2024. These fluctuations were a consequence of limiting trading activities and struggling automotive sales during the aforementioned period.

Europe

In Europe, the mLLDPE market registered an impressive incline in its momentum, particularly driven by the rising demand from the downstream industries and limited supply from the Middle East countries. These supply constraints were further intensified by reduced output rates and regional shutdowns in the domestic markets. Despite these challenges, demand remained relatively stable, particularly in end-user industries like construction and the automotive industries.

Additionally, European market participants faced a higher number of offers from domestic producers as with the loss of import volumes; the consumers focused on domestic produce. The market was further influenced by the rise in feedstock ethylene prices, supporting an uptrend in mLLDPE prices. Additionally, the global surge in the cost of crude oil and naphtha also raised the overall cost of production, prompting the traders to raise the pricing quotations of mLLDPE during the first quarter of 2024.

North America

In the first quarter of 2024, the mLLDPE market witnessed an uptrend in the US. The US market experienced a surge in spot prices driven by heightened demand from the construction and packaging sectors. This surge was fueled by excessive purchasing activities and restricted availability from the Middle East, compounded by escalating ethylene prices.

The traders also faced diminishing stocks as many of the production plants went under maintenance at the advent of the new year. The tight supply and ethylene price hikes influenced mLLDPE prices upwards. The mLLDPE market was further influenced by the rising resin prices, supported by escalating overseas freight costs and logistical constraints in the Red Sea and Panama Canal.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of MLLDPE is expected to be driven by the inclining cost of feedstock chemicals and the stabilization of supply-demand equilibria of the global markets.
 

m-LLDPE Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

Asia

The prices for m-LLDPE saw some minor fluctuations in the last quarter of 2023. Initially, the market was driven on the back of the rising cost of feedstock LDPE, ethylene, and upstream crude oil. The first two months also enjoyed heightened demand from the downstream automotive, construction, and automotive industries. However, the rerouting of trade routes due to escalating tensions between Israel and Hamas and the blockage of the Red Sea route led to a fall in export rates of m-LLDPE, which had a significant impact on the m-LLDPE Price Trend.

Europe

The prices for feedstock of m-LLDPE appreciated by a significant margin in the first month of the last quarter, throughout Europe, mainly due to higher costs for ethylene and remarkable fluctuations in the prices of crude oil. However, owing to the poor demand, the traders soon had to revise their m-LLDPE price quotations. The interest of consumers might not have increased much in the m-LLDPE market, but the cost of manufacturing rose steeply. However, it benefited the m-LLDPE prices only during the early phase as the prices oscillated heavily towards the end of the last quarter.

North America

The US prices for m-LLDPE increased as a result of rising ethylene feedstock costs brought on by increased demand from the packaging and automotive industries. Global prices for m-LLDPE generally increased in response to changes in the price of crude oil. There was still a strong market demand for US m-LLDPE in the overseas industries, with substantial exports to South America, Europe, and Mexico. The surge in demand can also be attributed to geopolitical concerns, which include the attack on Israel by Hamas as the disruptions in trade routes and impatience of the consumers supported the uptick in m-LLDPE prices.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of m-LLDPE are expected to be dependent on the downstream demand of packaging, automotive, and polymer industries but, moreover, will be driven by the efficient functioning of the trade routes.
 

m-LLDPE Price Trend for the July - September of 2023

Asia

In Asian countries, the mLLDPE price trend declined in the first half of the third quarter as weak demand and excess of mLLDPE supply created a disbalance in the equilibria. The sluggish movement of the Asian economy hampered the growth sentiments of the downstream industries during this phase. However, as the quarter progressed, the mLLDPE graph trajectory escalated on account of rising costs of upstream products and increasing demand from the domestic markets.

Europe

The European countries also struggled with the poor demand from the downstream industries and a slow-moving economy. The consumer sector also seemed to be negatively affected by the start of the holiday season, the rise in living costs, and the rising pressure of inflation. However, the mLLDPE price trend stabilized as the quarter progressed due to a fall in production rates and a restricted supply of feedstock material. In addition to this, the rise in procurement of mLLDPE from the packaging industries, limited imports, and the overall positive outlook of the market, resulted in the incline in the mLLDPE price trend.

North America

The initial decline in the mLLDPE price trend was a consequence of falling demand for mLLDPE from the downstream industries and poor performance of the feedstock prices. The substantial rise in inflationary pressure and interests charged by banks, along with oscillating consumer spending habits and a lower number of inquiries caused the mLLDPE price trend to fall. However, with the restrictions in the supply chains, limited availability of the product in the market, and a significant shift in its demand in the second half, the mLLDPE price trend surged.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of MLLDPE are expected to oscillate in the upcoming quarters as the demand for mLLDPE and pressure of inflations seems to be a challenge for the mLLDPE market.
 

m-LLDPE (Metallocene Polyethylene) Price trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

The Asian market observed a declining trend in the prices of mLLDPE in the first and second quarters of 2023. The price trend of mLLDPE was majorly affected by the region's slow demand and strong supply of the product. In addition to this, the packaging and related industries also reduced their number of offers, and as a result, the level of inventories rose, thereby impacting the prices of mLLDPE in the region.

Europe

In the first two quarters of 2023, the mLLDPE prices subdued gradually in Europe. The European region witnessed a high level of inventories and slow movement of the downstream industries. However, the trend stabilized towards the end of the first quarter, and the percentage of decline also improved. This stabilization of falling prices towards the end of Q2 was attributed to the improving demand sentiments of m-LLDPE (Metallocene Polyethylene) in the region.

North America

The North American market was stagnant in terms of the price trend of mLLDPE. The stable trend of the mLLDPE market was supported by the consistent demand from the packaging and related industries. However, steeply declining natural gas and crude oil prices greatly impacted market sentiments. With several economic shutdowns and shadows of recession, the price trend of mLLDPE suffered in the latter half of the first quarter and throughout the second quarter of 2023.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of m-LLDPE (Metallocene Polyethylene) is expected to showcase a mixed trend in the upcoming quarter. The demand from the end-user industries is estimated to remain uncertain in the coming months.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of m-LLDPE (Metallocene Polyethylene). Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.