Ethane vs Naphtha Cost Gap Widens
Bain analysis shows US ethane remains significantly cheaper than Asian naphtha, widening the cost gap and giving ethane‑based plants a competitive edge. This pushes naphtha prices higher.
Naphtha Price Trend Analysis 2026: Supply Demand Analysis, Latest News, Price Drivers, Historical Prices & Market Insights
Written ByPragati Agarwal
Naphtha Latest Development
IEA Cuts Oil Demand Forecast
The IEA sharply lowered its 2026 global oil demand outlook, citing the escalating Mideast conflict and elevated energy prices. The agency now projects a significantly steeper year-on-year decline in consumption than previously forecast, warning that market tightening and demand destruction are accelerating.
Naphtha Price Trend Q3 2026
| Product | Region | Incoterm Basis | Price | Last Updated Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naphtha | China | FOB | USD 797.46/MT | August 2026 |
| Naphtha | India | FOB | USD 888.25/MT | August 2026 |
| Naphtha | USA | FOB | USD 721.19/MT | August 2026 |
| Naphtha | Germany | CIF | USD 742.71/MT | August 2026 |
| Naphtha | South Korea | FOB | USD 894.46/MT | August 2026 |
| Naphtha | China | FOB | USD 806.14/MT | July 2026 |
| Naphtha | India | FOB | USD 795.55/MT | July 2026 |
| Naphtha | USA | FOB | USD 644.81/MT | July 2026 |
| Naphtha | Germany | CIF | USD 728.60/MT | July 2026 |
| Naphtha | South Korea | FOB | USD 897.50/MT | July 2026 |
Stay updated with the latest Naphtha prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
Naphtha Price Trend Q2 2026
- Global naphtha prices declined during Q2’26 after an early supply-driven increase, as crude availability improved and petrochemical demand weakened.
- Feedstock markets were affected by crude supply disruptions initially, followed by lower oil prices and reduced refinery feedstock costs later in the quarter.
- Downstream demand remained weak from petrochemical crackers due to poor margins, while gasoline blending provided limited support.
Asia
Naphtha prices in China declined to ~RMB 7.90/kg in April and ~RMB 7.45/kg in May, showing a ~5.8% decrease. The market initially strengthened due to crude supply disruptions, higher freight costs and restricted refinery availability. However, prices weakened as crude values declined, petrochemical margins deteriorated and cracker operators reduced purchasing. Regional naphtha prices reached elevated levels in early April but declined significantly later as supply conditions improved and demand from steam crackers weakened. The ethylene-naphtha spread turned negative, reducing incentives for petrochemical producers to operate at higher rates. China followed the broader Asian trend, with weaker plastics and chemical demand, lower crude costs and reduced cracker profitability pressuring naphtha values through the quarter.
Europe
European markets were firm early in Q2 due to higher crude costs, restricted refinery feedstock availability and trade disruptions. However, prices softened later as crude values declined and petrochemical producers reduced feedstock requirements. Gasoline blending demand provided temporary support as stronger gasoline margins encouraged refiners to direct suitable streams toward fuel markets. Weak steam-cracker economics and lower olefin demand limited sustained support for chemical-grade naphtha. The market shifted from cost-driven firmness in April toward softer conditions by June.
North America
Naphtha prices in the United States declined to ~USD 883.58/MT in April and ~USD 835.00/MT in the subsequent month, showing a ~5.5% decrease. The market experienced early-quarter pressure from global crude disruptions and reduced naphtha availability, but conditions improved as refinery activity increased and crude prices declined. Higher refinery utilisation later in the quarter improved the availability of light hydrocarbon streams, reducing supply concerns. Strong seasonal gasoline demand supported blendstock values, but increased refinery output limited further price strength. Petrochemical demand remained moderate as manufacturers faced weaker margins and cautious purchasing.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, naphtha prices are expected to remain influenced by crude oil movements, refinery operating rates and petrochemical cracker demand, with weaker margins limiting significant recovery.
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- Global naphtha moved from relative stability at the start of Q1 2026 to a sharply firmer trend by March, as energy-market disruption and tighter trade availability lifted sentiment across regions.
- Feedstock conditions strengthened mainly because crude-linked costs surged after the Iran war and the blockage around the Strait of Hormuz disrupted a key energy corridor handling about 20% of global oil and LNG trade flows.
- Downstream demand stayed uneven early in the quarter, but improving olefin economics later on and restocking in parts of the petrochemical chain supported naphtha consumption.
Asia
In Asia, naphtha prices were fluctuating in Q1 2026, with softer sentiment in early January and a strong rise by March. At the start of the quarter, weaker ethylene margins reduced buying interest from crackers and limited spot support. This kept demand restrained in both China and India despite routine petrochemical consumption. The trend shifted sharply later as the Iran war disrupted regional energy flows and the Strait of Hormuz blockage tightened supply visibility, raised freight and replacement costs, and strengthened crude-linked sentiment. By March, improved ethylene-naphtha economics supported better downstream appetite, allowing the market to turn decisively firmer. India broadly followed the same direction as China, with import dependence making the market more sensitive to freight risk and disrupted cargo movement.
Europe
In Europe, naphtha prices were oscillating in Q1 2026, but the quarter ended with a clear upward bias. Early demand remained limited because derivative sectors were weak and petrochemical margins were under pressure. The Iran war then changed the cost structure across the region by pushing up energy and shipping expenses. Since Europe is highly exposed to imported energy and feedstocks, the Strait of Hormuz disruption intensified supply concerns and lifted naphtha sentiment even though downstream demand recovery remained only moderate.
North America
In North America, naphtha prices were wavering in Q1 2026. Domestic conditions were more balanced than in Asia, but the market still strengthened later in the quarter as global crude-linked cost pressure intensified. The Iran war and the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz tightened overall energy-market sentiment, which supported refinery-linked feedstock values. Downstream demand remained moderate, but firmer petrochemical economics late in the quarter helped prevent weakness.
About Naphtha
Naphtha is a type of gasoline or raw petrol derived from raw materials and crude oil for use in the chemical industry. It a is a highly versatile hydrocarbon compound that is highly flammable, colourless, and highly volatile. It is made by distilling organic substances such as wood, coal tar, petroleum, and shale. Depending on its source or composition, naphtha is known by various names such as coal tar naphtha, wood naphtha, petroleum spirits, shellite, and white gas.
Naphtha Product Detail
HS Code
271012
CAS Number
8030-30-6
Industrial Uses
Petrochemicals, Agriculture, Paints and coatings, Aerospace
Synonyms
Petroleum Naphtha, Petroleum Ether
Supplier Database
China Petrochemical Corporation, Reliance Industries Limited, Shell Chemicals, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Indian Oil Corporation Limited, Novatek, SABIC
Regional Coverage
Asia Pacific
China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Thailand, South Korea, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, UAE, Israel, Hongkong, Singapore, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Australia, and New Zealand
Europe
Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy,Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Greece
North America
United States and Canada
Latin America
Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru
Africa
South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco
CurrencyUS$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)
Supplier Database AvailabilityYes
Customization ScopeThe report can be customized as per the requirements of the customer
Post-Sale Analyst Support360-degree analyst support after report delivery
Note: Our supplier search experts can assist your procurement teams in compiling and validating a list of suppliers indicating they have products, services, and capabilities that meet your company's needs.
Naphtha Production Processes
- Production of Naphtha via Distillation Process
Naphtha is produced in petroleum refineries as one of the intermediate products of crude oil distillation.
Our Price Analysis Methodology
About the Author
Pragati Agarwal
Senior Business Insights Analyst
Delivering price trend analysis and procurement market insights at Procurement Resource, with expertise in identifying commodity patterns, supporting purchasing strategies, and improving cost efficiency through actionable market intelligence.
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