- Natural gas prices showed a volatile but overall declining trend in Q1’26 in India, while global markets tightened due to severe supply disruptions.
- Supply conditions were heavily impacted by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupted nearly 20% of global gas flows and increased logistics costs.
- Downstream demand remained firm from fertilizers, power, and city gas distribution, but supply prioritization and high costs limited broader industrial consumption.
Asia
Asian natural gas markets were extremely volatile due to supply disruption caused by the Iran war and blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which affected the supply of natural gas from Qatar and the UAE, accounting for almost 20% of the world’s total production. About 50% of India’s natural gas requirement is met through imports, out of which approximately 60 million standard cubic meters per day is imported from the Middle East, making India very vulnerable to any kind of disruption. This resulted in prioritizing the supply of natural gas to fertilizers and domestic sectors, limiting the supply to industries. Even though international prices surged, domestic prices fell from INR 15.25/kg (Contract FD) in January to INR 11.88/kg in March, representing a decline of 22.1%.
Europe
In Europe, natural gas prices witnessed upward movement owing to low LNG supplies and competition from Asia. The diversion of the cargoes towards Asia created supply shortages in Europe, with stockpiling being below average for the season. This increased the need to procure more natural gas, which saw the cessation of the supply of LNG from Qatar and the disruption of the passage through the Strait of Hormuz, further intensifying the supply shortage problem. There was a shift in trade flows, with the United States exporting more natural gas to Europe, at about 22.7 million tons in Q1’26. Demand for natural gas from industries and chemicals was subdued.
North America
Natural gas markets in North America remained stable, despite the logistical problems experienced in other regions, owing to adequate domestic production and exports. The United States operated at full LNG export capacity, making it impossible for it to increase supply and compensate for the losses incurred worldwide, owing to the war in Iran and the disruption of passages via the Strait of Hormuz. There were increased exports to both Europe and Asia, at an estimated rate of 3.75 million metric tons in Q1’26.