Neodymium Price Trend and Forecast

Neodymium Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Neodymium in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Neodymium Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

The price trend of neodymium, a critical rare earth element used in permanent magnets for electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy technologies, experienced a downward trajectory driven by several interconnected factors. Geopolitical tensions, particularly those involving China, and supply concentration were key influences, as China's dominance in the market led to supply uncertainties and heightened vulnerability to disruptions.
 

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Despite increasing global supply, including early-stage projects in countries like the US, Korea, and India, production outside China remained insufficient to meet rising demand, exacerbating market pressures. China’s rare earth mining quotas, which saw further increases in 2024, aimed to bolster its supply dominance, while export restrictions and new regulations on mining and trade underscored the geopolitical risks affecting global availability.

Meanwhile, demand for neodymium weakened during Q2 2024 after a bullish run in the first quarter, primarily due to softer consumer buying in key end-use segments such as EVs and a global economic downturn, contributing to lower prices. Oversupply concerns were exacerbated by significant output from major Chinese producers and the entry of new players, with China’s Bayan Obo mines in Inner Mongolia leading global production.

In the US, efforts to bolster domestic supply were marked by initiatives like increased tariffs on Chinese imports and investments in local production facilities, yet these measures were insufficient to offset the immediate market imbalances. Additionally, price volatility was influenced by ongoing trade policies, supply chain vulnerabilities, and regulatory shifts in China, which further constrained the availability of refined rare earths.

Despite efforts by companies like Lynas to expand their market share and develop new production capabilities, overall sentiment in the market remained bearish, with prices reflecting the broader economic challenges and fluctuating demand patterns. The imbalance between supply concentration in China and the gradual progress of new projects outside Asia painted a complex landscape for neodymium, where prices continued to be weighed down by geopolitical tensions, economic downturns, and evolving regulatory frameworks.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Neodymium is expected to remain closely tied to the interplay of global supply chain resilience, domestic production initiatives, and ongoing geopolitical developments, all of which are expected to continue shaping the market through the remainder of the year.
 

Neodymium Price Trend for Second Half of 2023

The Neodymium market is driven by the increasing demand for neodymium-based permanent magnets, particularly in the automotive and electronics industries. These magnets are essential components in electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, computer hard drives, and various consumer electronics. Additionally, advancements in renewable energy technologies and the growing adoption of electric vehicles worldwide are fueling the demand for neodymium.

The rare earth market experienced a growing disparity between supply and demand, posing challenges for producers and consumers as well in the last two quarters of 2023. At the same time, the shift to zero-carbon energy and transportation drove the demand for certain rare earth elements (REEs), such as neodymium and praseodymium, used in magnets for electric vehicles and green energy technologies.

The focus on specific elements has led to an oversupply of some while others are in high demand, creating price discrepancies. The shift has left some deposits with an imbalance of REEs, with some elements more valuable than others. These shifting sentiments of the downstream industries and the struggling condition of the mining sector under the rising number of environmental restrictions and safety concerns lowered the availability of neodymium in the global markets, raising its prices.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Neodymium is estimated to incline in the next few quarters as the widening of the gap between supply and demand will favor the rise in neodymium prices.
 

Neodymium Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

The market of rare earth metals such as neodymium witnessed fluctuating market sentiments in the first two quarters of 2023 as the price trend suffered from the consistent decline in demand from the renewable energy sector and other related industries. Amid this muted demand for neodymium, the supply from the majority of suppliers, especially in China, inclined gradually during the first two quarters of 2023.

Among the downstream sector, the automotive sector somehow managed to maintain its pace, but the combustion engines sector and global wind energy sector were challenged with a low number of sales.

The magnets industries also showcased weak growth potential, and the plunging economy further pushed the price trend of neodymium into the negative zone. In addition to this, the supply of neodymium remained unrestricted in the Asia Pacific region, but the export rates suffered from strict policies, which only led to a rise in the level of inventories, hampering the growth of neodymium prices.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Neodymium is expected to continue its declining trajectory as the demand from the end-user industries will likely remain weak amid feeble economic conditions.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Neodymium. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.