NPK Fertiliser Price Trend and Forecast

NPK Fertiliser Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of NPK Fertilizers in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

NPK Fertilizer Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

During the third and fourth quarters of 2023, the Asian NPK fertilizers industries moved from China to other sources, such as Russia and Brazil, in order to curb domestic demand.
 

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This shifting pattern was evident in the pricing trajectory of NPK fertilizers in the H2 of 2023. The strict export measures adopted by China in order to control its domestic prices of NPK fertilizers led to stagnancy in the prices there but upward oscillations in the rest of the region.

Europe

The limited supply from overseas industries due to the disruption of the Red Sea route caused scarcity of the product in the European countries, raising its prices by several folds.

The demand from the end user industries also remained on the higher end of the spectrum, favoring a robust development of the market momentum. However, the escalating cost of crude oil and other energy sources, along with limitations in the trading activities, constricted the upward journey of NPK fertilizers price trend in the later months of the year.

North America

The North American market of NPK fertilizer showcased an oscillating trend in the third and fourth quarters of 2023 as the key feedstock prices stumbled throughout the period above.

Initially, the market was able to sustain a bullish outlook amid rising demand from the downstream agricultural sector, but soon, the excessive supply of the material from both the domestic and overseas players became a hurdle for traders as, with time, the procurement rates started to decline. The mixed trend in the cost of energy production and overall operations also contributed significantly to fluctuating the pricing trajectory of NPK fertilizers.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of NPK Fertilizer is expected to be based on the changing scenario of trade and weather influenced climate patterns.
 

NPK Fertiliser Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

NPK fertiliser prices varied throughout the first half of the year 2023. The second quarter was more stable compared to the first quarter. The Chinese market had a good start as the agriculture sector continued posing good demands in the winter months. However, the growth was extremely short-lived as the inventory stocks started dominating the downstream demands after that. Following a little plateaued curve in the middle, the NPK fertiliser prices started slumping and then maintained a downward trajectory for the rest of the second quarter. Overall, a dull and weak market performance was noticed.

Europe

The European NPK fertiliser prices showcased a mixed price trajectory during the period under discussion. Prices inclined for the first three months of Q1 as the demands were still high for the end-consuming sectors.

A similar incline in the feedstock rock phosphate market also had an influence on the early appreciation of European NPK fertiliser markets. However, this situation reversed completely in the second quarter as the prices then started to slide down swiftly after witnessing some borderline stagnancy for a few days. Decreased demands and a lowered upstream cost support were primarily responsible for this market behavior. Overall, mixed market sentiments were observed.

North America

NPK fertiliser’s price performance in the American markets was very similar to its European counterpart. The prices followed the end user’s sentiments as the price curve was very similar to the downstream demand curve. After steadily rising for the early few months, the NPK fertiliser price trend took a downturn in the American market also. The inflation in the American region during this time also was responsible for the disruptions in the fertiliser market. A varying market performance was witnessed.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, NPK Fertilizer price trends are likely to continue oscillating in the coming months as well. The market will continue to be dependent on downstream demands.
 

NPK Fertilizers Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia Pacific

The price of water-soluble NPK Fertilizers saw a strong increase in prices during the third quarter. The product not only saw a steep rise in demand in the Indian but as well as the Chinese market. The supply, however, was unable to meet the abrupt high demand of the market.

This shortage further led to an increase in the prices. However, the fourth quarter did not follow this trend and the prices of NPK fertilizers fell. The major cause is attributed to the low demand from the agricultural and industrial sectors. The trend is expected to remain bullish in the further quarters also, owing to the reduced prices of imports from Northeast Asia and ample stock availability in this region.

Europe

The European market saw a high price trend for NPK Fertilizers during the whole third quarter. The third quarter was favourable towards the price growth of fertilizers due to the increased agricultural activities and growing demand from other markets.

The extreme weather conditions and rising costs of energy production in the region remain favourable towards the price growth of fertilizers. However, this trend was not followed in the fourth quarter. The increasing gas and energy prices in this quarter had an adverse effect on the price trend.

North America

The North American market saw an uprising trend for the prices of NPK Fertilizers in the third quarter. The increasing price trend is majorly attributed to the high demand from the agricultural sector.

The agricultural sector remained the major driver of the market throughout the third quarter. The fourth quarter, however, saw a steep fall in the prices of these fertilizers. The supply in the region remained strong in comparison to the demand and this negatively affected the price of the commodity.

Analyst Insight

The prices of NPK fertilizers are likely to decrease during the coming month given the decline in the demand from the market and strong supplies.
 

NPK Fertilizer Price Trend For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

Owing to the continuing geopolitical tensions and soaring crude oil prices, the prices of almost all the commodities are rising and inching closer to the 2008 crisis levels, affecting the global consumption patterns and economy. The prices of fertilizers have exploded since the start of the current year due to the surging feedstock prices.

Urea prices have outpaced their 2008 level, while potassium and phosphorus are moving closer to the 2008 levels. The cost of feedstock phosphorous reached a maximum of 38000 RMB/MT in the Chinese domestic market. The surging coal prices led to rationing of electricity usage in China, which caused many fertilizers production units to stop production, leading to tightening supplies.

Further, with China imposing a ban on exports of fertilizers, especially phosphates, till June 2022, citing domestic availability and food security, the prices of NPK-based fertilizers soared domestically and globally. The Indian government had to roll out subsidies worth USD 7.69 billion to protect the farmers from the soaring prices of NPK fertilizers.

Europe

Russia and Belarus are the major players in the fertilizer market. With the European embargo on Russia, a staggering energy crisis was unleased in the domestic market. The rising oil prices caused the prices of petrochemicals to inflate, thereby increasing the costs of inputs/primary feedstock.

As soon as the sanctions were announced, Russia imposed restrictions on the supply of N, P and K-based fertilizers, affecting 15% of the global fertilizer supply. Belarusian potash exports fulfil 90% of Europe's needs. With Lithuania halting the use of its railways to transport Belarusian potash to the Klaipeda port, the entire supply chain was affected; consequently, the prices soared in the European domestic market.

North America

The US produces nitrogen and phosphates for its domestic consumption but imports potassium-based fertilizers. Owing to the surging prices of fertilizers, many producers have chosen to reduce the overall acreage planted, which will have a profound effect on the 2023 planting patterns, thereby inflating the prices of commodities in the domestic market.
 

NPK Fertilizer Price Trend For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

Fertilizer companies passed on a portion of the increase to farmers as input costs had risen considerably. IFFCO, India's largest fertiliser company, increased the price of DAP from 1,200 INR/bag to about 1,350 INR/50 kg bag (a 12.5% rise), while the price of one variety of NPKS was raised to 1,400 INR/50 kg bag from 1,290 INR/bag (an increase of 8.5%). NPK prices for grade 1 and 2, which are other grades of NPK fertiliser, were a minimal 20 INR/bag to 1470 INR/bag.
 

NPK Fertilizer Price Trend For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

Due to robust upstream prices ZCE Urea futures, which grew by a substantial proportion, urea prices increased in the fourth quarter of 2021. Plant operating rates have increased, resulting in increasing demand from downstream agricultural as well as downstream Melamine manufacturers.

Increasing coal prices in South Asia prompted many provinces to ration electricity and fertiliser makers to reduce production, according to industry data. In December, the FOB Qingdao price rose to 19 USD/MT, while CFR JNPT Urea rates were quoted at 566.95 USD/MT. During December, the price of potassium chloride was roughly 605.2 USD/MT.

Overall, Asian ammonia market attitudes were positive, with strong demand in India to meet their demands during the rabi crop season, while the forecast for Chinese ammonia on the local spot market remained bullish, thanks to rising natural gas and coal prices. Furthermore, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the influence of Chinese authorities' dual-control energy consumption limits to reduce carbon emissions and limit power use prevailed. As a result, some ammonia facilities had to cut back on production, prompting China's government to ban downstream Urea shipments to international markets.

North America

Due to a large increase in the price of raw materials, the price of urea surged in the fourth quarter of 2021 in the North American region. Prices for nitrogen fertiliser have hit unprecedented highs as a result of a global scarcity, prompting farmers in North America to postpone purchases. In December, US urea prices topped 728 USD/MT FOB Cornbelt for the first time. Increased feedstock Ammonia prices as a result of rising natural gas prices put pressure on local industries and downstream consumers.

Supply restrictions in the United States towards the end of the quarter also aided price hikes. Following an exponential rise in MOP prices in December in the United States, the price was reportedly hanging around 775 USD/MT.

The price of ammonia in the North American region climbed dramatically in the fourth quarter of 2021, owing to a considerable increase in the commodity's value as a result of a global nitrogen fertiliser shortage.

In December, the assessed value of ammonia FOB New Orleans (USA) pricing reached an all-time high of 1177 USD/MT. Ammonia supplies were sluggish in the quarter as a result of the reduced availability of hydrogen and nitrogen in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida.

Europe

In the fourth period of 2021, fertiliser prices in Europe significantly improved. Higher feedstock Ammonia prices, rising input costs as a result of the energy shortage, and rising Natural gas prices, a key component in fertiliser manufacture, have all driven Urea prices higher in European markets. Moreover, increased freight costs and a scarcity of shipping containers played havoc on Urea prices in the third quarter. Nitrogen fertilisers were in short supply and in high demand all across the world in Q4.

In Europe, the price of ammonia has been steadily rising, owing to a surge in raw material costs due to rising natural gas prices. Since the beginning of the year, the German market has had a bullish market feeling for ammonia, as demand from the nitrogen-based fertilisers industry has been strong and effective enough to maintain the overall price increase of ammonia. Ammonia prices in Germany were last assessed in December 2021 at 934 USD/MT CFR Hamburg. Inflationary freight expenses and a scarcity of shipping containers wreaked havoc on Ammonia prices this quarter.
 

NPK Fertilizer Price Trend For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

Prices of urea rose steadily across the Asian market, owing to increased demand from both the domestic and foreign fertiliser markets. Prices in China spiked in Q1 2021 as a result of a partial lockdown in response to an increase in daily COVID-19 cases. While this had little effect on urea production in the country, it did cause problems with road transit and exports.

Meanwhile, demand for urea in India improved from the previous quarter, and limited supply sustained its pricing. In addition, the Indian government authorised a USD 13.44 million grant to support BVFCL (Brahmaputra Valley Fertilizers Corporation Limited) plant operations, which have a 390,000 MT/year urea production capacity.

As a result, potassium chloride prices in the Indian market soared early in Q2, with Ex-Depot Ahmedabad negotiations concluding at 280 USD/MT in April, representing massive increases over Q1 levels. Ammonia pricing recovered towards the end of Q3, with FOB Qingdao prices settling at 702 USD/MT during the week ending September 24th. Prices in India increased from 664 USD/MT to 798 USD/MT in Q3 2021.

North America

Although demand for urea in the North American region rose throughout the quarter, prices remained high due to a scarcity of feedstock chemicals. As a result of the winter storm, several feedstock ammonia facilities and other industrial units around the Gulf Coast were shut down.

In March, ex-factory urea prices at port Neal were around 415 USD/MT, an increase of 20 USD/MT month over month. Following a protracted winter storm and trade interruptions, it was expected that prices would level off until the end of the quarter, when production across the US Gulf region returned to normal.

From July to September, the price of MOP in India increased by 92 percent, from 359 USD/MT to 466 USD/MT. Furthermore, the adoption of COVID limits in China's major ports aggravated the overall price situation in Asia.

Potassium chloride prices soared to 476 USD/MT in Q2 due to strong demand and limited supply in the North American region. However, the sales were hampered by the rising of the Canadian dollar.

In March, the FOB price of Potassium chloride US MOP was estimated to be around 310-320 USD/MT, up around 15-20 USD/MT from February levels. Prices of ammonia grew significantly in the third quarter of 2021 in the North American region, as demand for ammonia from the large downstream fertiliser business remained robust. Due to adverse weather conditions that interrupted production in Q1 2021, inventories for the commodity in the United States were lower than expected.

The price of ammonia was fixed at 605 USD/MT FOB New Orleans in the first week of August. Since mid-May, there have been no major planned or unplanned plant outages, indicating that supply fundamentals have remained strong throughout the quarter.

Europe

During the first quarter of 2021, the European market saw stable domestic and international demand for Urea. Lower feedstock, i.e. ammonia, output from the US market due to disrupted production and limited trading activity in the second half of the quarter sparked international demand, supporting price increases across the region.

Shipping container shortages and rising freight costs also had a substantial impact on Urea prices across various trading routes. Plant operations were reported to be sluggish throughout the quarter due to harsh weather conditions and limited crop output, keeping MOP supplies steady in Europe.

Potassium Chloride capacity additions of around 3.2 MTPA were expected to come onstream in the coming quarter, boosting buyer sentiments. Demand remained generally subdued as agricultural market offtakes fell owing to unseasonably cold weather. Due to increased demand, certain stocks were transferred to the United States.

In the third quarter of 2021, ammonia prices in Europe continued to grow sharply. Due to a continual reduction in domestic ammonia production in Europe, the price rose sharply by roughly 300 USD/MT since January 2021. In September, CFR Hamburg prices were 710 USD/MT in Germany.
 

NPK Fertiliser Price Trend For the Year 2020

Asia

Urea exports from China increased dramatically in the first quarter as the country attempted to generate cash by catering to regional demand in the face of low availability in the domestic market. With the start of the Rabi season in India, demand for urea increased dramatically. In October, a major fertiliser business in India purchased roughly 2.18 MMT of urea cargoes.

India imported urea from all major sources, including Indonesia and Vietnam, because Indian producers received higher netbacks than producers in the United States or Brazil. Malaysian and Indonesian producers were observed performing planned and unplanned maintenance. These occurrences, however, did not cause any substantial supply disruptions across the region.

Prices began to recoup their lost pace as demand fundamentals improved in the second half of the year, somewhat offsetting the quarter-on-quarter drop. In the first half of the year, disruptions in the logistics chain and personnel constraints hampered Indian DAP and NPK fertiliser output, resulting in lower ammonia feedstock requirements. On a CFR India basis, spot ammonia was trading around 280.5 USD/MT.

North America

Due to a drop in demand at the end of the agricultural season in the United States, supply remained plentiful in Q4. As harvesting progressed, the overall rate of demand slowed, but urea prices remained favourable to farmers. Early and late winter meant that additional fertiliser of fields came to a halt, and there was little to no room for early contract buying.

In addition, barge traffic in New Orleans (Nola) remained steady, making the market less appealing for imports. Three other Trinidad producers temporarily shut down output in late September, including a 500,000 tpy export-oriented Trinidad Nitrogen Company Limited (Tringen) plant in Point Lisas.

Due to the unexpected drop in regional prices, Nutrien was the first to shut down portion of its output. While prices improved significantly in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Russia during the quarter, ammonia supplies in the Americas remained substantially discounted.

Spot prices were estimated to be between 170-180 USD/MT FOB US Gulf. Potash demand remained a key profit driver for many fertiliser companies in the United States, thanks to rising agricultural sales. MOP prices in the United States hovered above 140 USD/MT in the fourth quarter, indicating significant improvements.

Due to rising demand, Q1 deliveries were priced 40 USD/MT higher. Potash sales into the oil and gas markets were constrained, although many producers were able to manage their inventories by channelling them into the agricultural sector.

Europe

As huge volumes from several nations were rerouted to India during the Rabi season in India, the demand fundamentals for urea in Europe were also influenced. There were no shutdowns or force majeures since European producers continued to produce without interruption and were able to meet domestic demand.

The increase in Urea use in October did not meet market forecasts due to weak harvesting activity, market uncertainties, and financial concerns. In the first half of November, demand was sluggish, but it picked up towards the end. Despite the fact that Q4 was a poor period for the European fertiliser business, supply of potassium chloride remained consistent.

Some amounts were shipped to the western United States. Demand fell in Q3 due to a seasonal slump that affected market sentiments for the majority of the quarter. Market mood remained high due to active restocking by several US consumers. Players, on the other hand, predicted an improvement in the price trend in Q1, indicating greater pricing on spot purchases in January 2021.

Some Russian Ammonia tankers were booked for South Korea in the fourth quarter of 2020, as a more favourable choice than shipping a cheaper cargo from Trinidad. In July, Russia's total ammonia production reached a new high on a year-over-year basis, with FOB prices hovering at 180-190 USD/MT.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of NPK Fertiliser. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.