Octene Price Trend and Forecast

Octene Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Octene in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Octene Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

Asia

In Asia, octene prices showed a gradual recovery in Q1 2024, aligned with the broader trend of LAOs. The post-holiday resurgence in Chinese manufacturing and increased industrial activity bolstered the demand for octene, which is used extensively in the production of high-performance polymers, synthetic lubricants, and plasticizers. Supply chain constraints, such as high ethane costs and volatile ethylene prices, initially put pressure on the market, limiting the availability of feedstock. However, despite these challenges, the industrial growth across the region supported the upward movement in octene prices. As demand picked up from downstream sectors, including polyethylene production, prices remained on a gradual upward trend.
 

Octene Price Chart

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The second quarter saw stabilization in octene prices as the feedstock market showed some relief. Ethylene prices steadied, and the octene market followed suit, showing more balanced performance. The supply-demand outlook played a key role in stabilizing prices, although demand fluctuations from the manufacturing sector occasionally disrupted this balance.

Europe

In Europe, octene prices followed a bullish trend in the first quarter of 2024, driven by rising demand from downstream sectors such as lubricants and surfactants. Post-Christmas retail activity led to improved consumer confidence and increased private consumption, boosting demand for octene. However, the European market also faced supply constraints due to maintenance shutdowns at several production plants, as well as higher reliance on imports, which dominated over domestic production.

The rising freight costs due to the Suez Crisis further inflated prices in Q1. By Q2, the octene market in Europe began to show some signs of stability, but price fluctuations persisted, primarily due to fluctuating feedstock ethylene prices. The OPEC countries' decision to extend voluntary production cuts contributed to maintaining upward pressure on prices. Despite these challenges, the demand from the manufacturing sector remained steady, preventing any significant price drops.

North America

In North America, octene prices surged in the first quarter of 2024, mirroring the broader trends seen in LAOs. Several production units underwent scheduled maintenance shutdowns, leading to supply shortages and pushing octene prices higher. The strong demand from downstream industries, including those producing polyethylene and specialty chemicals, further intensified the upward trend in octene prices.

The limited inventories of octene, coupled with the disruption in production, created opportunities for traders to implement price hikes. Although the market faced inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions, the high demand for octene supported the price increase throughout Q1. In the second quarter, octene prices in North America began to stabilize as supply chain challenges were resolved, and production levels increased. While the market saw some price corrections in Q2, the overall trend remained upward, with prices oscillating within narrow limits. The stabilization of ethylene prices and the recovery in the end-user sector contributed to the normalization of octene prices in the latter part of Q2.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Octene is expected to remain stagnant mirroring the trend of linear olefins in the quarters ahead sustaining the balance of supply and demand sectors.
 

Octene Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

Octene prices were observed to be oscillating throughout the second half of the year 2023; the third quarter witnessed a soaring price trajectory as the restraining decisions by OPEC+ shot up the crude oil and allied products market. Because of this, the feedstock butene prices also went up, raising the production costs for octene. Thus, the third quarter soared high for the Asian butene market. However, the fourth quarter experienced variations in the Indian and the Chinese markets.

The Chinese market was able to somewhat sustain the momentum, but the Indian market faced a situation of supply glut since the international demands dipped substantially. Overall, very mixed market sentiments were witnessed.

Europe

The European octene prices were relatively on the lower side compared to the Asian trends. Initially, the overflowing inventories forced the suppliers to keep the market prices discounted in order to maintain a positive market movement. So, despite a rise in the feedstock costs, the octene prices kept the downward momentum intact. As the fourth quarter arrived, the situation was not much different from the third quarter. However, some occasional surges were witnessed, as per the demand trajectory.

North America

The American octene market was in a close alliance with the Asian and European market trends as the prices mostly wavered and plunged here as well. Tepid consumption by the downstream plastics and surfactant industries was primarily the reason behind the underwhelming performance of the American octene market. The surge in crude oil prices in the region in the early months also couldn't help the octene market situation much. Overall, muted market sentiments were witnessed.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Octene price trends are expected to continue fluctuating in the coming months as well. The regional dynamics will change as per the variations in consumption patterns.
 

Octene Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Asian octene prices observed positive market trends during the said period as the industrial revival in the Chinese market led to a rise in octene demands from downstream consuming sectors like surfactants, chemicals, plasticizers, etc. Further, the feedstock prices provided significant cost support. In the Indian market, the manufacturing industry was on the rise, so the octene prices rose for the majority of the discussed time period, with some short lived and temporary reverse fluctuations following the demand dynamics in the consumer market.

Europe

Like the Asian market, octene prices rose throughout H1’23 in the European market as well. A rise in market and industrial activities supported the growth, but lingering inflation also affected the pricing. As Europe was learning to live with an ever-stretching war in its backyard, newer trade routes developed, and the broken supply chains were being restored. The stabilization in crude oil prices was the biggest factor behind the under-process industrial normalization. Overall, rising and fluctuating trends were observed for Octene.

North America

Following the global trends, the North American octene market could not behave any differently. With rapidly normalizing freight and other trade situations, a rise in downstream demands from consuming sectors was observed, which led to an upward movement of octene prices. Overall, positive market sentiments were observed.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, with the given market normalization, the Octene price trends are likely to stabilize going further.
 

Octene Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

The uprising trend in the prices from the first two quarters of 2022 continued in the third quarter. The end-user industries such as polymer and elastomer industries fueled the demand for octene and led to a surge in the prices. The demand for the commodity continued to rise even in the fourth quarter. High demand, limited supply, and low prices of feedstock led to an uprising trend in the prices of octene.

Europe

During the first two quarters of 2022, the prices for octene saw an uprising trend due to the restricted supply and trade along with the high demand from the market. The elastomer market that uses octene in the production of specific elastomers and polymers also showcased an uprising trend in the prices during the third quarter. This trend was however reversed in the fourth quarter when the producers were struggling to sell the commodity as the demand for the elastomers and polymers of octene dipped. The fluctuations in the feedstock costs further fueled this dip and paused the uprising of the prices.

North America

The North American market saw a mixed price trend in the prices of octene during the third and fourth quarters of 2022. The surge in demand is majorly attributed to the rise in feedstock costs and high demand from the end-used industries. However, in the polyolefin elastomer industry, where this commodity is used as a starting material, the prices dipped in the third quarter.

The major reason for this is the low demand for this elastomer from the market accompanied by a strong supply from the producers. The fall in the prices of the elastomer was also observed in the fourth quarter owing to the fluctuation in demand from end-user industries such as automotive, agriculture, etc. Another factor responsible for this fall is the rise in the cost of energy and production.

Analyst Insight

The prices of Octene are likely to increase during the coming month given the surge in the prices of elastomers and polymers and high demand from the end-user industries.
 

Octene Price Trend For the First Half of 2022

Asia

The crude oil and natural gas prices soared throughout the world owing to the continuing Russian invasion of Ukraine. The price upstream operating costs affected the petrochemical industry thereby causing the prices of linear alpha olefins to increase i.e., octene prices soared throughout the Asian market.

The trade bottlenecks, port congestions, covid restrictions, and raised freight led to the phenomenon of demand destruction in the Asian domestic arena and thus, the price trend of octene suffered towards the end of said period. The price of C 10 linear alpha olefins averaged 940.81 USD/MT in India.

Europe

The European region closely mimicked the price trend for octene recorded in the Asian arena. The prices soared during the first 4/5 months owing to the supply side constraints, high feedstock prices and trade restrictions and robust downstream demand.

The price of C 10 LAO averaged 2263 USD/MT during the first quarter. The prices relaxed towards the end of said period averaging 1619 USD/MT as the upstream operating costs relaxed.

North America

Owing to the robust demand from downstream plasticizers, polymers and chemical industries amid the raised feedstock costs the prices of octene surged throughout the US domestic market. The C10 Linear Alpha Olefins averaged 790 USD/MT on a FOB basis during the first quarter. However, it soon stabilized and plateaued towards the end of the second quarter due to the muted market sentiment and ample inventories as the trade restrictions relaxed.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Octene. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.