Paraffin Wax Price Trend and Forecast

Paraffin Wax Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Paraffin Wax in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Paraffin Wax Price Trend For the Q3 of 2024

Asia

Paraffin wax prices in Asia mirrored the volatility in the crude oil's market. Weak Chinese demand and economic headwinds led to price drops in July and early August. The post-COVID boom fizzled out, with domestic demand contracting heavily.
 

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Surging EV sales and expanded high-speed rail networks in China restricted fuel demand, impacting paraffin wax consumption in various industries. Mid-August saw a brief uptick due to Middle East tensions, but prices soon declined again due to weak economic outlooks. OPEC+ attempts to stabilize the market had limited impact on paraffin wax prices.

Europe

European markets experienced erratic paraffin wax prices. Middle East tensions provided temporary upward momentum, but weakening macroeconomic factors soon dominated. The gradually softening demand for petroleum products cascaded to paraffin wax markets, affecting industries such as candle-making, packaging, and cosmetics. Falling prices may prompt the European Central Bank to reduce rates, potentially mitigating economic weakness and indirectly influencing paraffin wax demand through increased consumer purchasing power.

North America

US paraffin wax prices faced downward pressure due to falling domestic demand and oversupply issues. Prices averaged around similar levels to crude oil, adjusted for the paraffin wax market. The increase in US commercial crude oil stocks indicated weakening demand, which translated to softer paraffin wax prices. Supply risks from Middle East tensions and weak Chinese economic outlook contributed to price volatility. The potential for US Federal Reserve rate cuts added uncertainty to future demand projections for paraffin wax in various applications, from industrial coatings to food packaging.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices of Paraffin Wax are expected to decline further in coming months. The relationship between crude oil and paraffin wax prices remains strong, with a slight lag in price adjustments for the latter.
 

Paraffin Wax Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Asia

In Asia, particularly in India, the quarter began with a noticeable price increase in paraffin wax. This trend was driven by strong demand across multiple sectors, such as cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and nutraceuticals. India's significant growth of the manufacturing sector in May, despite moderate growth in April, with domestic demand surpassing export orders, exerted a significant positive influence on the market.

On the supply side, manufacturers faced increased costs due to volatile market dynamics, which were passed on to consumers, leading to higher prices for paraffin wax products. Additionally, crude oil prices, which heavily influence paraffin wax production costs, consistently rose in April due to supply constraints.

Europe

In Europe, the paraffin wax market was influenced by similar supply constraints and geopolitical factors. The region saw price increases early in the quarter, driven by high crude oil prices and robust demand from various industrial sectors. However, the market began to stabilize towards the end of the quarter, with prices showing a downward trend. This was due to factors such as improved crude oil supply conditions, reduced geopolitical risks, and OPEC+'s plans to phase out production cuts. Meanwhile, throughout the second quarter, the end-user industries witnessed a strong rebound, better than anticipated by the traders, raising their optimism for the upcoming months.

North America

In North America, the paraffin wax market also experienced notable fluctuations. The prices rose initially due to robust demand from the end-user cosmetics sector and other downstream industries. However, production faced significant constraints due to disruptions at major plants, such as those owned by Dow Chemical and Enterprise Products Partners L.P. in Texas. These disruptions, combined with maintenance activities at other facilities, led to higher production costs, which were reflected in increased paraffin wax prices. Despite these challenges, demand from the pharmaceuticals sector showed signs of recovery, while nutrachemical industry demand remained subdued, with a more optimistic outlook for the coming months.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Paraffin Wax is expected to struggle with the persistent loss being faced by the trading sector. Meanwhile, the optimistic trend in the procurement rates of the commodity gives some hope for the revival of market trends globally.
 

Paraffin Wax Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

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Asia

During the first quarter of 2024, not much change was seen in the paraffin wax price trends in the Asian region. In the Chinese market, an almost plateaued price graph was witnessed. This reflected the continuation of the parity in the supply and demand dynamics in the country. Even though the feedstock crude oil prices inclined, the existing inventory stocks kept the price trend balanced. The downward demands also remained regular and consistent throughout the said period.

Majorly it was the plastics and packaging industries that kept supporting the downstream outlook for paraffin wax in the country. Compared to the buoyancy of the Chinese market, the Indian market saw some minor fluctuations during this period. The rising upstream costs were affecting the suppliers’ behavior, while the downstream sectors also showed some oscillations. Overall, a stable market run was observed in the region for paraffin wax.

Europe

In the European market, the paraffin prices varied throughout the said duration of Q1’24. The market started on a softer note at the beginning of the quarter In January’24. The inventories were already fully bulked up with the unused and excess stockpiles of the past months. The demands did not see any significant inclines to counter that early on.

However, the second half of the quarter witnessed a completely different story for paraffin wax. Amidst a continuously rising raw material cost, the demands also improved marginally, the inventory support also dwindled. Thus, the paraffin wax prices started rising again in the last couple of months. Overall, mixed market sentiments were observed.

North America

The North American paraffin wax prices mirrored the market sentiments of its European counterparts. However, the market was much more consolidated here. The price fluctuations were milder and shorter; thus, the market was largely stable. The supply and demand outcomes maintained a narrow gap throughout the entire journey of Q1’24. The constant push and pull between rising production costs and dull demands kept the paraffin wax market afloat in the American market. Conclusively, muted market performance was observed in Q1’24.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the rising crude oil prices will have some impact on the Paraffin Wax price trends in the coming days, particularly when the inventory support starts dipping.
 

Paraffin Wax Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

Asia

The lower costs for raw ingredients like liquid wax led to a minor decline in the price of paraffin wax in the Chinese markets during Q4 of 2023. Throughout the quarter, the downstream demand did not show any significant improvement, and thus, the producers and distributors had to modify their pricing in accordance with actual costs. Amidst volatile raw material prices and restricted market trading, paraffin prices settled on the lower end of the spectra.

Europe

Paraffin wax is primarily derived from crude oil and naphtha, and thus, the trend of market activities of these industries dictated the paraffin wax price trend in European countries. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the blockage of Russian pipelines and loss of exports over rising Israel-Hamas tensions led to considerable fluctuations in the paraffin wax market. On the other hand, the consumer sector also offered limited support as they themselves struggled with the rising inflation rates.

North America

The North American crude oil sector registered a double-digit percentage decline in the last quarter of 2023, which made the recovery of paraffin wax price trend nearly impossible. The market further suffered from a rise in the number of import volumes, typically from Asian countries, which, amid the struggling consumer demand, only led to the rise in inventory levels of paraffin wax.

In order to maintain the supply-demand equilibria, the traders started practicing destocking activities by offering discounts on the bundled-up inventories, causing a reduction in the trajectory of the paraffin wax price graph.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Paraffin Wax are expected to follow the trend observed in the crude oil industries and the rate of procurement from the downstream industries.
 

Paraffin Wax Price Trend for the July - September of 2023

Asia

The paraffin wax price graph fluctuated throughout the third quarter as its demand from the end-user industries oscillated. This sea-saw movement of the paraffin wax market trend was also due to the decline in the interest of international consumers that affected the trade sentiments of paraffin wax negatively.

Further, the restricted supply of crude oil in accordance with OPEC+ regulations exerted excessive pressure on manufacturers and, in turn, over the entire market sentiments of paraffin wax in the Asia Pacific region.

Europe

In the initial phase of the third quarter, the paraffin wax price trend took on a downward trajectory as its rate of production exceeded the demand by several folds. The plunging market dynamics were also a consequence of weak trading activities and the lower number of offtakes.

However, as the quarter progressed, the market conditions on account of the demand for paraffin wax started improving, and the paraffin wax price trend swiftly moved in an upward direction. Another significant cause of this elevation in the paraffin wax prices was its limited supply, which depleted the level of inventories.

North America

In the first month of the quarter, the existing level of inventories was sufficient to cater to the demand for paraffin wax, and the surge in industrial production only raised its stockpiles. However, as the influx of expensive imports flooded the market, the traders were pushed towards increasing their price quotations. During this phase, the rates of procurement from the cosmetics and related sectors also helped in improving the overall fundamentals of the paraffin wax market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Paraffin Wax are expected to improve in the upcoming quarters as the market dynamics seem to be advancing in a positive direction.
 

Paraffin Wax Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

High volatility in the upstream cost of crude oil and slow demand from consumers due to rising uncertainties in the economic conditions affected the price trend for paraffin wax. The initial months of the first quarter were severely affected by low production rates as the market of China was still in the recovery phase after the lunar new year holiday season and the after-effects of COVID-related restrictions.

In the second quarter, there was a slight jump in the prices of paraffin wax due to the surge in the cost of crude oil and the revival of cosmetic industries. But soon, the trend began to decline, which was caused by high rates of inflation, reduced purchasing by consumers, and subdued demand from the end-user industries.

Europe

In Europe, the price trend of paraffin wax declined throughout the first and second quarters of 2023 as the demand dropped significantly from domestic as well as international buyers. There was a significant shift observed in the cosmetics sector, where the manufacturers shifted from paraffin wax to more natural and eco-friendly alternatives. The disruption in the supply chain caused by labor strikes and sliding economic indicators that suggested the entering of European nations in the recession phase hampered the growth of the price trend of paraffin wax in the first and second quarters of 2023.

North America

The prices of paraffin wax faced downward due to subdued demand from the downstream industries in the North American region. This fall in the prices was much more visible in the second quarter as, in addition to the low demand, the influx of cheap imports from the Asian industries and rising uncertainties in the crude oil sector influenced the paraffin wax price trend negatively.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Paraffin Wax is estimated to showcase a declining trajectory due to the fall in demand from the cosmetics industries and high fluctuations in the crude oil market.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Paraffin Wax. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.