Polyethylene (PE) Price Trend and Forecast

Polyethylene (PE) Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Polyethylene (PE) in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Polyethylene (PE) Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

Asia

The regional market exhibited a nuanced pricing pattern with varying trends across different PE grades. While upstream ethylene showed strength, particularly in South Korea where cracker operations remained robust, finished PE products faced demand headwinds.
 

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The anticipated production increase from Vietnam's petrochemical facility created future supply expectations, influencing current market sentiment. Tourism-related packaging demand in China and Southeast Asia provided some support, though overall market sentiment remained cautiously optimistic amid broader economic uncertainties.

Europe

European PE markets navigated through complex dynamics, balancing supply concerns against demand uncertainties. The potential disruption in Hungarian supply chains due to sanctions on Russian oil suppliers created regional supply anxiety. However, this was partially offset by stable freight rates and moderate demand from converting sectors. Contract negotiations reflected the market's mixed sentiment, with different grades showing varying price movements based on specific application demands.

North America

The market demonstrated mixed sentiments with an underlying bullish bias, primarily driven by upstream ethylene dynamics. Supply constraints emerged as a key factor, particularly due to Hurricane Beryl's impact on production facilities and unplanned outages at major crackers. Despite these disruptions, finished product prices showed remarkable stability, especially in September. The divergence between upstream cost pressures and finished product prices created margin compression for producers. The Mont Belvieu situation added complexity to the supply chain, though its impact on final PE prices remained moderate.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Polyethylene market is expected to remain mixed with regional variations persisting. Supply chain normalization could ease current constraints; downstream demand sustainability remains crucial for price direction.
 

Polyethylene (PE) Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Asia

In the Asian polyethylene market, the prices remained downward wavering, particularly in the Chinese market. The country is witnessing a different and unique problem in the polyethylene sector, which is overcapacity. With an expected downturn in automotive fuel consumption amidst a rise of electric vehicles, the refineries pivoted their output to these mushrooming units that deal in all sorts of plastics and, despite a stagnation in domestic demands, are not cutting down on production.

China’s sole polyethylene capacity exceeds all South Korea’s, Japan’s, and Europe’s combined. With the existing supply glut, the manufacturers are now looking at markets abroad as customers since the profit margins continue to thin.

Europe

The European market trends for polyethylene were not very different from the trends in the Asian and American markets. The prices showcased consistent fluctuations here as well. At the beginning of the quarter, the prices were inclined since both the supply and demand dynamics supported the market growth; however, as the crude oil prices started dipping, the polyethylene market also started flattening. However, as the prices started normalizing around the conclusion of the said quarter, the PE prices also went along a similar pathway. Overall, mixed market sentiments were witnessed.

North America

The polyethylene market gave a strong performance throughout the second quarter of 2024, however, especially in June’24, the polyethylene (PE) market saw strong trading activity, with high demand from processors and resellers. Prime polyethylene prices were steady to slightly higher, especially for truckloads, while low-density PE film grades edged higher. High-density PE was the most traded, with increased interest in blow mold, injection, and high-molecular-weight grades.

Limited supplies and strong export demand, particularly from Latin America, drove prices up. Producers pushed for a three-cent increase in June and nominated an additional five-cent increase for July, anticipating further price hikes due to limited spot supplies, increased export demand, and potential weather-related disruptions during the hurricane season. Overall, a positive price-performance was seen for polyethylene during the given period.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Polyethylene prices are likely to continue showing regional fluctuations in the coming months as well. The variations in the global supply outlook and crude oil prices will dictate the changes in PE prices, too.
 

Polyethylene (PE) Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Asia

The polyethylene or PE market for the first quarter of 2024 was referred to as the buyer’s market since the prices remained flat for the majority of this period. However, this market performance was better than that of the previous quarter. The consumer response in the Asian markets didn’t meet the expected outcomes. Rallying behind the rising production and crude oil costs, polyethylene (PE) prices were little motivated in India during this period.

Especially, low density polyethylene saw a significant surge in prices attributed to the rise in demand for flexible plastics. Some major capacity additions are also underway to meet the expected demands in the future. Exxon Mobil Corporation Huizhou Polyethylene Plant, which is expected to come online by 2024, is expected to operate at a capacity of 0.5mtpa. Asia will soon start dominating the global polyethylene production. Overall, the Asian polyethylene market was more or less stable during the discussed time span.

Europe

The price story was not much different for polyethylene in the European market compared to the Asian markets. The prices were observed to be largely consolidated here as well. The incline in the crude oil prices was giving a major push since the demands were mostly humble.

Earlier, prices were expected to rise; however, amidst global and regional unrest, the downstream consumption remained very necessity-centric. With this, the driving forces acted in all directions and thus kept the market afloat for the majority of Q1 of 2024. Overall, mixed market sentiments were observed amidst a meek demand trajectory for polyethylene.

North America

The market performance of polyethylene in the American region was even more meek compared to the Asian and European markets. Amidst trade uncertainties at the global levels, the demands remained largely unsatisfactory despite a surge in crude oil prices. Bulked-up inventories were also responsible for this downward wavering of prices.

Some occasional ups were attributed to the phases of good offtakes. However, the general market outlook was largely muted. Both domestic and international trade were facing difficulties since the shipping costs too had flung drastically within the said quarter. Conclusively, a dull market performance was witnessed in Q1’24.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Polyethylene price trends are expected to remain weak for some time shortly as the market demands are not likely to improve anytime soon.
 

Polyethylene Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

The second half of the polyethylene market in Asian countries began on a sour note as the prices declined. The fall in the pricing patterns was due to sluggish downstream procurement activities and excessive product supply, exceeding the demand. The economic slowdown of the region further limited downstream industrial momentum, asserting a negative influence on the pricing trajectory of polyethylene. However, as the third quarter progressed, the escalating cost of ethylene and other feedstock materials, such as naphtha, crude oil, etc., resulted in soaring production costs and an eventual rise in the quoted prices of polyethylene.

Throughout the majority of the third and fourth quarters, this trend continued. But towards the end phase of the year and quarter as well, the cost pressure from the ethylene market and depletion in the packaging and construction sector market trends due to the onset of the holiday season pushed the polyethylene prices to the lower end of the spectrum.

Europe

Throughout the H2 of 2023, the polyethylene price trend maintained a bearish tone as the weak domestic downstream market extended only limited support to the players. Further, the persistent downturn of ethylene prices and reduced consumer spending over the holiday season asserted additional negative pressure on the European polyethylene market, shifting its prices in the southward direction. The accumulation of excessive inventories eventually forced the manufacturers to lower their production rates, which were further impacted by the rising rates of interest and inflationary pressure.

North America

In North America, the decline in the pricing patterns of polyethylene was a consequence of the fall in the appetite of the end-user industries and the weaker economics of the region. The traders, therefore, focused on destocking the over-piling inventories, forcing them to offer huge discounts on bulk purchases, reducing their profit margins. The feedstock ethylene also showcased only limited support to the polyethylene market, lowering the overall cost of production and leading to a subdued momentum of the polyethylene market as well as its prices during Q1 of 2024.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Polyethylene is estimated to be driven by the changing landscape of feedstock ethylene and the slow recovery of the downstream packaging sector.
 

Polyethylene Price Trend for First Half of 2023

Asia

The prices of polyethylene in the first quarter of 2023 suffered from the slow movement of downstream packaging and related industries, along with disruptions in the supply chain due to the maintenance shutdown of several manufacturing units. Due to this, the gap between supply and demand widened in the Asia-Pacific region. In the second quarter, along with these challenges, the cost of upstream products and the failure of the economy due to the ongoing crisis between Russia and Ukraine resulted in feeble market activities of polyethylene.

Europe

In European countries, the price trend of polyethylene declined throughout the first and second quarters. The challenging economic conditions resulted in high rates of inflation, slowing down of demand from the downstream industries, and compromised trading activities, resulting in low confidence of buyers in the market, thus leading to the reduction in their consumption rates. In the second quarter, some major manufacturing plants went under maintenance activities, making the situation much more dire for the traders and eventually negatively impacting the price trend of polyethylene.

North America

In the initial months of the first quarter, the price trend of polyethylene surged with the help of the limited availability of stocks and positive growth of the construction and packaging sector. However, the second quarter did not prove to be this favorable for the market activities of polyethylene. The demand from downstream industries declined gradually, and with falling economic conditions, the rates of inflation and bank interests soared, hampering the price trend of polyethylene.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Polyethylene is estimated to showcase a southward trajectory as the downstream industries are showing signs of weak demand, and the global economy also does not seem to support the rise in polyethylene prices.
 

Polyethylene (PE) Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

The Asian market remains weak for the prices of polyethylene in the third quarter. The Chinese market saw the least demand from the North American region due to the strong supplies from worldwide traders and low demand from the end-user market. The supply chain was also disrupted because of delayed shipments and logistics constraints. The manufacturers alas decided to cut production owing to the bearish market demand, hampered supply chains, and low cost of feedstock. In the fourth quarter also, the situation persisted. Along with the above trend, the rise in inflation played a major role in the decline of prices.

Europe

The European market’s weak growth and high economic uncertainties played a primary role in the price decline of polyethylene in the third quarter. In addition to that, a low demand from the end-user industries and a low purchasing trend followed similar to the Asia-Pacific market, also contributed to the decline in the prices. The fourth quarter, however, saw a surge in prices. The improvement in trading practices, increase in demand from downstream industries, and continuous surge in inventories accelerated the prices in the region.

North America

Similar to the Asia-Pacific market, the North American region also saw a decline in the prices of polyethylene polymer. The major cause of this decline is attributed to weak market sentiment and oversupply of the product. The threat of hurricane season further snatched any opportunity to incline the prices from the traders. The fluctuations in the cost of energy production, and low demand from end-user industries led to a decline in the prices in both the third and fourth quarters of 2022.

Analyst Insight

The prices of Polyethylene are likely to decrease during the coming month given a decline in demand from the end-user industries and the rise in inventories and operational and production costs of the material.
 

Polyethylene (PE) Price Trend For the First Half of 2022

The first half of 2022 saw a decline in polyethylene prices as a result of sluggish demand and increased supplier stocks. Polyethylene prices in May generally increased by 3 cents/lb, while June prices were on a flat to lower trajectory.

Suppliers revised and delayed their price increases, generally asking for 3 cents/lb in June owing to decreased demand. In the meantime, both domestic spot pricing and export prices decreased, local prices fell by 5 to 10 cents per pound while export prices fell by 10 cents per pound.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Polyethylene (PE). Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.