Potassium Chloride Price Trend and Forecast

Potassium Chloride Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Potassium Chloride in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

 

Potassium Chloride Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

Product	Category	Region	Price	Time Period
Potassium Chloride	Chemicals	China	372 USD/MT	July 2024
Potassium Chloride	Chemicals	China	363 USD/MT	September 2024

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Asia

The prices of potassium chloride followed an overall declining trend in the third quarter of 2024. Prices in the upstream caustic potash market remained relatively stable during this period, offering limited cost support for potassium chloride. Early in the quarter, prices were stable as supply and demand balanced out. However, as the quarter progressed, prices gradually declined, with occasional increases driven by higher export volumes and domestic demand.
 

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Overall, potassium chloride prices fluctuated but experienced a slight downward trend during the third quarter. The spot prices in the Chinese market were around 372 USD/MT in July, decreasing marginally to approximately 363 USD/MT by September.

Europe

In the European market, prices followed a trend similar to that of the Asian market during this quarter. The prices of upstream caustic potash remained stable, with only minor fluctuations, providing limited cost support for potassium chloride. Prices increased in the first two months of the quarter before declining slightly in September. Demand from downstream sectors was moderate, and inventory accumulation remained low, which contributed to the prices remaining rangebound in the region.

North America

The prices of potassium chloride exhibited mixed trends in the third quarter of 2024. The price trajectory of upstream caustic soda remained relatively calm during this period, offering narrow cost support to potassium chloride prices. Price fluctuations were mainly driven by changes in downstream demand and supply disruptions. The region experienced several hurricanes, which posed a threat to crops and caused supply chain disruptions. While some production plants had to shut down, the impact was largely confined to specific areas, such as Louisiana.

Additionally, the North American chemical industry faced the potential for a rail strike in Canada, which could disrupt the supply of chlorine and hydrochloric acid (HCl), both key feedstocks for various industries. Although some suppliers have sought to delay the strike, its occurrence could affect the prices of many chemical products, including potassium chloride, due to supply chain disruptions.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, potassium chloride prices are expected to remain stable, with marginal fluctuations in the near future mirroring the prices of feedstocks. The downstream demand, mainly from the fertilizer sectors, will keep the market driven.
 

Potassium Chloride Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Product	Category	Region	Price	Time Period
Potassium Chloride	Chemicals	China	343 USD/MT	April’24
Potassium Chloride	Chemicals	China	360 USD/MT	June’24

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Asia

After a weak run in the previous quarter, potassium chloride prices were observed to be rising throughout the second quarter of the year 2024. After winter harvests, the end consumer demand for potassium chloride from the agricultural sector increased significantly which contributed to the increasing prices. Moreover, the appreciation in feedstock costs raised the overall manufacturing prices, further adding to the existing cost pressure.

Both raw materials, hydrogen chloride and potassium hydroxide, saw an increase in rates. In the Chinese potassium chloride market, the monthly average prices went from about 343 USD/MT in April’24 to around 360 USD/MT in June’24. This imparted an approximate 4% incline in the potassium chloride price graph in China. Careful handling of existing stocks and incoming supplies from the stakeholders also helped in market appreciation. Overall, positive market sentiments were observed.

Europe

The price trajectory of potassium chloride was found to be wavering during the second quarter of the year 2024. This fluctuation in the European potassium chloride price trend was attributed to various factors. A decline in offshore trade coupled with regional operational challenges kept the market eager for growth. However, the inventory pressure and moderation in the downstream demand dynamic also influenced the potassium chloride prices in Europe. Overall, varying price trajectory was witnessed.

North America

Just like the European potassium chloride market, the American markets also exhibited borderline stagnancy throughout the said period. The upstream outlook remained balanced with the buoyancy in feedstock HCl and caustic potash rates. On the other hand, the end consumer demands from the agrochemical and fertilizer industries were somewhat positively motivated. Therefore, the overall outlook of American potassium chloride markets was stable. Moreover, the geopolitical disturbances and trade hurdles also shaped the regional supply and consumption patterns. Still, the domestic markets were generally favourable.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the market is likely to fluctuate further in the coming months; primarily, the consumption variations in the upcoming monsoon season will impact the Potassium Chloride market dynamics.
 

Potassium Chloride Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Product	Category	Region	Price	Time Period
Potassium Chloride	Chemicals	China	410 USD/MT	January 2024
Potassium Chloride	Chemicals	China	350 USD/MT	March 2024
Potassium Chloride	Chemicals	USA	437 USD/MT	March 2024
Potassium Chloride	Chemicals	Europe	520 USD/MT	March 2024

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Asia

The potassium chloride prices were found to be wavering throughout the said period of Q1’24 as demands from the downstream chemical and other industries kept down causing the demand curve to trace a feeble trajectory. The orders from the farming industries in the form of fertilizers also saw a depreciating trend, which further forced the potassium chloride price trend down in the region.

In the Chinese domestic market, the monthly average prices stood at around 410 USD/MT in January’24 and went to about 350 USD/MT by the end of March. This imparted a downfall of about 14% in the Chinese domestic potassium chloride market. A similar situation was found in the Indian potassium chloride market as well since the prices were found to be mostly fluctuating at the lower end of the curve. Overall, dwindling market sentiments were witnessed during the said period.

Europe

The European potassium chloride market trend was not much different than that of its Asian counterpart. The ever-stretching Russian and Ukrainian wars hurdled and affected the trading dynamics in the region; the market didn’t see any exciting orders or queries coming in from the consuming sectors.

The farming and agricultural sectors were still struggling to cope with the reduced land amounts for cultivation. This directly impacted the potash’s use as a fertilizer in the agriculture industry. Existing inventories were well capable of supporting these incoming demands, which further pressurized the price curve. Overall, a vacillating price trend was observed mostly tilted downwards.

North America

In the American market, the potassium chloride price trend saw swift variations throughout the said period. The first half of the quarter was found to be dwindling more, while the second half of the quarter saw the regional market striving for stability. This pattern was because of the difference in the demand dynamics over the said period.

The market started slow at the beginning of January since the demands were still dull in the winter months. However, as time progressed, the gap between supply and demand dynamics kept narrowing down, resulting in an oscillating price trend.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Potassium Chloride price trends are expected to continue wavering in the coming months as well, since the geopolitical uncertainties are lingering and the market consumption is being affected by that.
 

Potassium Chloride Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

Asia

The potassium chloride market is greatly influenced by the compound’s demands from the downstream fertilizer industry since it acts as a major source of potassium for crops. Other than this, the chemical industry also extensively utilizes potassium chloride as a chemical and as a feedstock for producing other chemicals like caustic potash, etc.

During the given period, in the Chinese potassium chloride market, the monthly average spot prices grew from around 406 USD/MT in October’23 to about 432 USD/MT in December’23. This shift in the monthly average prices led to an approximate incline of around 6% in the Chinese market. Freight disturbances during this time for the procurement of the feedstock potash ores because of the Israel-Hamas war also pushed these market trend up. Overall, positive market trend were observed for potassium chloride during this time.

Europe

The European potassium chloride market was influenced by the American market as the prices here replicated similar trend during Q4 of 2023. The fertilizer industry in the region was already struggling because of the supply chain interruptions caused by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. And the new conflict between Israel and Hamas complicated the market situation further. However, Belarus’s exports balanced out the supply pressure in the region.

North America

In America, the potash prices rode high for most of the year 2023 till the third quarter as Belarus’s entry as a potash ore exporter raised the supplies suddenly. However, the supply edge bottomed out by the time the final quarter arrived. So, during the fourth quarter of the year 2023, potassium chloride prices were almost stable throughout the span of three months.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Potassium Chloride prices are expected to continue behaving in a similar manner in the coming months since not much change is projected in the supply and demand dynamics of potassium chloride.
 

Potassium Chloride Price Trend for the July - September of 2023

Asia

In Asian countries, during the first two months of the third quarter, the Potassium Chloride Price Trend suffered from the excess number of inventories and depletion in the sales of the downstream fertilizers market.

The manufacturing sector was also adversely affected by the decline in industrial activities of the Asian countries that hampered the procurement rates and, in turn overall dynamics of the potassium chloride market. However, at the end month, the downstream demand for potassium chloride slowly inclined and helped in the recovery of the potassium chloride price graph. In addition to this, the trend was also positively influenced by the rise in the cost of upstream materials, and thus, as a result, the spot prices rose from around 374 USD/MT in August to 415 USD/MT in September.

Europe

The bearish sentiments of the potassium chloride market in the third quarter of 2023 were a consequence of consistently declining rates of procurement from the fertilizer and agricultural industries. On the other hand, the production activities and rate of manufacturing inclined, but in view of the poor interest of consumers, this only resulted in a rise in the inventory levels and disruption in the supply-demand equilibrium. But, towards the end of the quarter, the market showcased some signs of improvement on account of the rise in the cost of raw materials and energy production. Further, many fertilizer industries experienced a surge in their export rates during the later stages of this quarter, helping in the inclination of the potassium chloride price graph trajectory.

North America

In North America, the market mimicked the trajectory of potassium chloride prices observed in Asian and European countries. The region initially suffered from excess stockpiles while, in view of the slow economic growth of the economy, consumer confidence in the sector oscillated. As a result, the potassium chloride prices experienced a downfall in its price graph.

The number of new orders and inquiries of potassium chloride from both domestic and overseas industries also experienced a steep fall, causing fluctuations in the potassium chloride market fundamentals. Similar to the trend observed around the rest of the globe, the trading activities improved significantly during the end of the quarter, supporting the rise in the potassium chloride momentum.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Potassium Chloride are expected to experience fluctuations in the upcoming months due to oscillations in its global demand and a substantial rise in its stockpiles.
 

Potassium Chloride Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

China is one of the very few nations that have enjoyed uninterrupted supplies from Russia, even during the war. Even though the Chinese market started firm at the beginning of the first quarter, but soon the prices shifted on a downward trajectory and continued to fall throughout the remaining five months. With around 30% depreciation, the average spot price for potassium chloride went from 563 USD/MT in January’23 to around 393 USD/MT in June’23. Steady dull demands amidst high inventory stocks and perpetual supplies led to this downfall in Potassium Chloride Price Trend.

Europe

Having a similar run to the Asian market, the Potassium Chloride prices degraded consistently in the European region, too. The downstream demands were sluggish and were greatly complemented by dampened feedstock potash prices, which brought the Potassium Chloride prices down. With both upstream and downstream factors lacking support for the Potassium Chloride market, the downfall in prices was inevitable.

North America

The North American Potassium Chloride market behaved no differently than the Asian and European markets. Albeit the beginning of the first quarter suggested otherwise, the prices fell persistently soon after. Canada had intensified its fertilizer exports, and the procurement costs from neighboring Canada were much more economical for the USA than procuring from distant countries. The consuming sectors also had a cold response. So, the market sentiments were generally dull.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, with the given gap in supply and demand fundamentals of Potassium Chloride, the prices are likely to continue fluctuating going forward as well.
 

Potassium Chloride Price Trend For the Second Half of 2022

North America

The second half of 2022 witnessed a bearish trend in the potassium chloride prices. The third quarter of 2022 significantly registered flumped prices on the back of debilitated commerce of the potassium chloride market, which gave way to enfeebled demand from the downstream industries.

The supply chain proved to be yet another reason for the frail prices of potassium chloride in the third quarter of 2022. Although the prices somehow resurrected from the second half of August to normalcy, the net price trajectory was hit southwards. Tottering buying sentiments and inflationary snarls further slashed the prices for potassium chloride in the second half of 2022.

The fourth quarter of 2022, too, trailed the footsteps of the price trajectory of potassium chloride. The primary reasons for the negative development could be chalked on the back of drab demand from the downstream industry (adhesives, sealants), lower freight prices, and the overall languid demand for potassium chloride.

Asia

Asia-Pacific region registered an overall fall in the prices of potassium chloride. The primary reason was the flaccid demand from the downstream industry, especially fertilizers, and detergents. The plummeting fertilizer industry was further abraded by the Ukrainian crisis that emerged from the Russia-Ukraine war. Moreover, the plunging manufacturing prices for potassium chloride proportionally resulted in the infirm prices for potassium chloride in the second half of 2022. As a result of derelict demand, the ripened inventories played another yet pivotal role in decreasing the prices for potassium chloride in the second half of 2022.

Europe

The European region witnessed a weak price trend for potassium chloride in the second half of 2022. Potassium chloride primarily saw a curtailment of its prices on the back of weaker demands from the downstream industries. The Russia-Ukraine war cast a shadowy price trajectory for nearly all the sectors with respect to the infirm trading sentiments; therefore, the potassium chloride sector, as well, wasn't unaffected from seeing the marred costs. Moreover, the downhill utility, distending logistics, and supply constraints further derailed the potassium chloride market sentiments.

Moreover, the inflating inventories, inflationary pangs, and incapacitated demand cry weighed on Europe's Potassium Chloride Price Trend in 2022's second half.
 

Potassium Chloride Price Trend For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

The market price for imported KCl increased in China in April by around 1.97% to settle at around 764 USD/MT.1 The prices further increased to 814 USD/MT in May but later fell by 0.30% to 811 USD/MT as the month reached to an end.

Europe

In Europe, the potassium chloride prices per ton rose sharply in Q2 2022, reaching more than 900 USD in May.3 The rise in prices was an aftermath of the Ukraine-Russia war which had caused global supply chain disruptions amid rising demand for fertilizers.

North America

In the US, KCl market witnessed an upward trend in prices during the second quarter of 2022 as a result of a shortage in supply of raw materials. The US import demands for potassium chloride heightened, while other countries applied restrictions on their supply of the chemical. The strong demand for potassium carbonate, the downstream product of KCl put pressure on the suppliers causing prices to remain high at around 675 USD per ton by the end of July 2022 increasing by almost 1.5% from the previous month.

Latin America

Brazil imported large volumes of the chemical from Russia and Belarus in spite of the soaring global prices and trade sanctions due to a high demand for fertilizers in the country for the summer grain season.
 

Potassium Chloride Price Trend For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

The average domestic potassium chloride prices surpassed 3,470 RMB/MT by mid-February 2022, up 70.85% year on year. Potassium supplies in China are limited, and the country's reliance on KCl imports is significant. As a result, domestic demand for the chemical is high, and enterprise production and sales are consistent. Domestic KCl stockpiles were 258,000 tonnes as of mid-February 2022, down 19.6% year over year and 38.4% since the start of the previous year.

Domestic KCl demand will be discharged as spring cultivation begins, and inventories may decline even further. In addition to the foregoing, there is a short-term supply shortfall due to international sanctions against Belarus and a mismatch in worldwide supply and demand. With the onset of spring cultivation in the northern hemisphere, potash demand will be released even more, and supply will be tightened in the future.
 

Potassium Chloride Price Trend For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

Potassium chloride prices were stable in the Asian market in Q4 2021, owing to high demand and depleted inventories in the face of suspended production in China. Meanwhile, China's production reduction, along with a prohibition on the export of many fertilisers, remained a major factor in these price increases. On the strength of insufficient availability in the local market, the price in India was heard hovering at an all-time high in December.

However, according to current statistics, MOP sales were effectively cut from fertilisers due to its soaring cost, and farmers began seeking for other alternatives to safeguard their margins. Farmers also had reported a high Rabi season yield, which had boosted confidence in India's fertiliser business. In addition, the Indian government announced increases in existing subsidies in order to maintain farmers' wellbeing. During December, the price was roughly 605.2 USD/MT.

Europe

During Q4 2021, European manufacturers had to deal with certain unusual events that shook the dynamics of the European market. The key events included a sharp spike in natural gas prices, which impacted practically all downstream derivatives pricing, such as ammonia, as well as non-derivatives.

High fertiliser costs agitated major countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and Russia, and their governments attempted to protect consumers as food inflation began to pressurise their plates. As a result, Russia imposed export quotas on specific fertilisers in order to protect the goodwill of foreign buyers. Hence, the price in Europe remained sky high throughout the quarter, similar to the global market.

North America

During this quarter, muriate of potash prices continued to rise over the world, notably in North America. Farmers were said to be struggling with fertiliser costs, although domestic demand from the agriculture industry remained strong.

Furthermore, shipments were suspended due to decreasing trade activity, as most countries resisted trade in attempt to keep food inflation under control. High fertiliser costs in the United States continued to put inflationary pressure on consumers, with prices reaching multi-year highs throughout this quarter. As a result, potassium chloride prices were recorded hovering above 775 USD/MT in December in the United States.

Latin America

Farmers saw the price of potassium and other main fertilisers used in agribusiness rise in 2021. Although some parts of the world kept costs reasonable, others, like as Brazil and the United States, saw a significant increase. When compared to pricing in early 2021, the price of a tonne of potassium in Brazil has more than tripled, and other fertilisers vital for the agricultural management of the country's numerous crops also a significant increase. The price of potassium chloride was recorded at 4.4k BRL/MT in December 2021.
 

Potassium Chloride Price Trend For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

Reduced cargoes from the United States, along with adverse weather, resulted in a global supply shortfall of the chemical. In India, major fertiliser producers raised prices dramatically ahead of the forthcoming kharif season. Overall, the region had high demand due to limited supply, which struggled to keep up as agricultural operations increased following the vaccine's introduction. FOB Shanghai rates rose to USD 400/MT for April delivery.

Potassium chloride prices increased significantly in the Asia Pacific region during the third quarter of 2021. In China's fertilisers market, demand remained robust in Q3. Potassium chloride prices rose significantly in August in the Indian market, owing to a stop in imports from key exporting countries with high demand.

European sanctions against Belarus over human rights violations had an impact on overall supply as well as MOP contract prices in India. From July to September, the price of MOP in India increased by 92%, from 359 USD/MT to 466 USD/MT. Furthermore, the adoption of COVID limits in China's major ports aggravated the overall price situation in Asia.

Europe

Plant operations were reported to be sluggish throughout the first quarter due to harsh weather conditions and limited crop output, keeping MOP supplies steady in Europe. Potassium Chloride capacity additions of around 3.2 MTPA were expected to come onstream in the coming quarter, which expected to boost buyer attitudes. Demand remained generally subdued as agricultural market offtakes fell owing to unseasonably cold weather. Due to increased demand, certain stocks were transferred to the United States.

In the third quarter of 2021, the European market for potash showed an increased price trend. In September, the price of potash was 10% higher than in August. In Q3, the fertiliser industry's profitability was impacted by higher natural gas costs in Europe.

CF Industries investigated whether an impairment charge for its operations in the United Kingdom (U.K.) was necessary. Due to high natural gas prices, two large fertiliser producers announced the closure of European fertiliser manufacturing operations in the third quarter. Increased regional price and material sourcing difficulties were caused by a number of variables.

North America

During the first quarter of 2021, supplies of KCl in North America were scarce. The freezing winter storm in the Gulf of Mexico significantly hampered restocking efforts. Inventories were running low in the first quarter of 2021 due to increased freight rates.

Due to ongoing robust demand in the North American and overseas markets, a large fertiliser company reported high potash sales volumes. However, the sales were hampered as the Canadian dollar increased. In March, the FOB price of US MOP was estimated to be around 310-320 USD/MT, up around 15-20 USD/MT from February levels.

In the third quarter of 2021, offers increased significantly, mostly in the North American market. Hurricane Ida hit the US Gulf Coast, causing several manufacturing firms to close, resulting in a shortage of supplies. Potassium chloride prices increased dramatically in Q3 as a result of strong downstream fertiliser demand and high production costs. In September, the price of potash in Illionis reached historic highs, reaching 600 USD/MT.

Latin America

The increased use of the chemical in fertilisers was one of the main factors driving the global market. Similarly, an increase in demand for natural foods boosted consumption of potash fertilisers, which fueled the market's expansion. Furthermore, an increase in demand from the oil and gas industry was anticipated to propel market expansion. The price of potassium chloride in January 2021 was recorded at 1.31k BRL/MT.
 

Potassium Chloride Price Trend For the Year 2020

Asia

Potassium chloride prices rose dramatically as feedstock and crop plantation prices rose steadily across Southeast Asia. Potash exports to Asia fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2020, owing to a lack of container availability and high ocean freight costs. Potash consumption was restricted during the quarter due to lower palm oil production in numerous Southeast Asian countries.

Manpower shortages and excess inventory were also major difficulties in several countries where activities were still hampered by partial lockdowns. In China, in January 2020, the price was recorded at 320 USD/MT, and 331 USD/MT in December. The lowest price was recorded at 262 USD/MT in May.

Europe

Demand fell in Q3 due to a seasonal slump that affected market sentiments for the majority of the quarter. The market mood remained high due to active restocking by several US consumers. Despite the fact that Q4 was a poor period for the European fertiliser business, the supply of potassium chloride remained consistent. Some amounts were shipped to the United States. Players, on the other hand, predicted an improvement in the price trend in Q1, indicating greater pricing on spot purchases in January 2021.

North America

North America, being one of the world's largest manufacturers of potassium chloride, saw strong MOP (muriate of potash) sales in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter, effective capacity utilisation exceeded demand levels, leading several US firms to cut back on production. Potash demand remained a key profit driver for many fertiliser companies in the United States, owing to rising agricultural sales.

Potassium chloride prices in the United States hovered above 140 USD/MT in the fourth quarter, indicating significant improvements. Due to rising demand, Q1 deliveries were priced 40 USD/MT higher. Potash sales into the oil and gas markets were constrained, although many producers were able to manage their inventories by channeling them into the agricultural sector.

Latin America

In South America, the potassium market is driven by the US mainly. In Brazil, the price remained stable despite the concern about a possible supply drop in Belarus. In August 2020, average potassium chloride prices in Brazil were recorded at 240 USD/MT.

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